Somalia today stands at a dangerous political crossroads. The fragile federal arrangement born out of the ashes of civil war is being steadily eroded—not only by the overreach of Villa Somalia, but also by the grave strategic miscalculations of regional leaders who underestimated the nature of power in Mogadishu.
Two such cases stand out starkly: the political experiences of Abdulaziz Laftagareen of Southwest State and Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Ahmed Madoobe” of Jubaland, alongside the earlier isolationist posture adopted by Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland. Each, in different ways, misread the political instincts of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a leader increasingly accused by critics of pursuing a centralizing project that threatens the federal balance of the Somali state.
What we are witnessing today is nothing less than a crisis of the Somali Union itself.
The Lesson of Appeasement: Ahmed Madoobe’s Strategic Error
Ahmed Madoobe, the seasoned leader of Jubaland, once believed that political accommodation with Villa Somalia would secure stability for his administration. For a time, Jubaland attempted to navigate Mogadishu’s turbulent politics through cautious engagement and tactical appeasement.
But history has repeatedly taught one harsh lesson:
appeasing an increasingly authoritarian center rarely brings security.
When regional leaders choose accommodation over collective resistance, they often discover—too late—that the central authority interprets compromise as weakness.
This appears to be the painful lesson now unfolding for Jubaland.
Once the door of political appeasement is opened to a leader determined to consolidate power, the result is predictable: the center eventually turns against its former partners.
Jubaland’s leadership is now confronting the reality that political survival in Somalia’s federal system requires alliances—not isolation.
To its credit, Jubaland seems to have recognized this strategic error. Its renewed engagement with Puntland and Golaha Mustaqbalka Soomaaliya signals an emerging political realignment aimed at restoring balance to Somalia’s fragile federal architecture.
Puntland’s Isolation: Deni’s Miscalculation
While Jubaland’s mistake was appeasement, Puntland’s mistake was isolation.
President Said Abdullahi Deni appeared to believe that Puntland’s historical legitimacy and geopolitical importance were sufficient to sustain it independently of the broader Somali political arena.
Puntland is indeed central to Somalia’s federal project. It was the first functioning federal state, the intellectual birthplace of Somalia’s federal idea, and the guardian of the 2012 constitutional compromise.
Yet politics abhors a vacuum.
By withdrawing from national engagement for prolonged periods, Puntland unintentionally created political space for Villa Somalia to marginalize it, cutting the state off from national programs, development initiatives, and decision-making platforms.
The result has been a bitter political experience:
a historically central federal state finding itself strategically sidelined.
But Puntland’s leadership now appears to be recalibrating.
Recent re-engagement with Jubaland and opposition platforms suggests that Garowe has realized an important truth:
Federalism in Somalia cannot survive through isolation. It requires coordinated resistance to central overreach.
Villa Somalia’s Centralizing Ambition
At the heart of the crisis lies a deeper structural issue: the growing perception that Villa Somalia is pursuing unilateral power consolidation.
From constitutional amendments pushed without consensus to political pressure on regional administrations, critics argue that the federal government is steadily transforming Somalia’s federal system into a centralized presidential order.
This strategy carries enormous risks.
Somalia’s federal arrangement was not born out of theoretical constitutional design. It emerged as a political compromise to prevent the return of authoritarian central rule, the very system whose collapse plunged the country into civil war.
Any attempt to dismantle that compromise risks reopening the very fractures federalism was designed to heal.
GalMudug: The Next Test
The next arena in this unfolding political struggle may well be GalMudug.
GalMudug now faces a historic decision:
Will it align itself with the growing resistance to federal overreach, or will it remain within the orbit of Villa Somalia’s centralizing project?
The answer will shape the future trajectory of Somalia’s political order.
If GalMudug joins Puntland and Jubaland in defending the federal balance, a counterweight to Mogadishu’s dominance could emerge.
If not, the federal structure may tilt irreversibly toward central authority.
A Union at Risk
Somalia’s federal union is still young, fragile, and incomplete. It survives largely because regional leaders and national actors have, until now, recognized the necessity of compromise.
But compromise cannot exist where unilateral power becomes the governing principle.
The experiences of Jubaland and Puntland demonstrate a painful political truth:
Appeasement invites domination.
Isolation invites marginalization.
Only strategic cooperation among federal states can preserve the delicate balance that keeps Somalia together.
The Road Ahead
Somalia now stands at a defining moment.
The coming months will determine whether the country moves toward:
renewed federal consensus,
or
deepening fragmentation and constitutional crisis.
For regional leaders, the lesson is now unmistakably clear:
federalism in Somalia will survive only if the federal states defend it collectively.
Otherwise, the Somali Union—already strained by decades of conflict—may slowly unravel once again.

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