Category: kismaayo

ANOTHER TURNING POINT IN SOMALIA’S GOVERNANCE


October 11, 2019


Since the adoption of the Provisonal Charter of 2004, a political battle has been raging on between federalists and centralists. A turning point in that political war came to half-way win for the federalists in confronting then former FGS President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who had eventually capitulated to the formation of Jubaland. That was a strong message to the centralists that the clock couldn’t be turned backed to the departing position of one city-state status.


President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his team of Damul-Jadiid had no choice, but to rush up a centrally sponsored formation of Hirshabelle and re-invigrated Galmudugh, as there was a political panic among Hawiye, as they saw themselves being left behind as the rest of Somalia had embraced upon federalism.


The centralists, however, didn’t give up their political struggle to turn the tide of popular desire for decentralization, even after formation of federal member states of Southwest, Hirshabelle and Galmudugh. They had to think of another way to continue the fight against federalists. Since they assumed the Daroods were spearheading the new notion of federalism, they had to find a Darood leader willing to sacrifice his constituency, like Siyaad Barre, for the position of a nominal presidency in Somalia. They struck gold in President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, a Mogadishu born politician of former military regime, whose italian nickname, Farmaajo (cheese), sounds sweet to the residents of Banadir.


Farmaajo, heavily promoted and advertised by centralists, once elected under limelight of popular welcome, immediately started a war against what was supposed to his own power-base in Somalia’s clan politics, just in the same manner his former late boss ran things from Mogadishu then, while trying very hard to unravel the gains of the 2nd Republic. The only difference is that Farmaajo had deceptively chased out even the Marehans to project an inital image that they too aren’t welcome in Villa Somalia.


Regardless of whether the recent Jubaland election was properly and legally conducted or not, the bigger issue was that the centralists were using Farmaajo in the same way they were using HSM then. It looks that Jubaland is another turning point, again, that Somalia resists the temptation to restore one city-state dictatorship. 


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N&N 2020 GENERAL ELECTION PLAYBOOK IS WELL UNDERWAY NOW

July 11, 2018
N&N Concept Note on Federal Election 2020 boils down to removing the carpet under the feet of leaders of the Federal Member States by-passing them to convey N&N message directly to the general public, especially to the youth. So far, the plan is working well.
The remaining hold-outs among the Heads of the Federal Member States are feeling the N&N political pressure now to either give in or get eliminated. The battle grounds are now shifting to Puntland and Jubaland. In the case of Puntland, there is still a political space for Puntland President Deni to maneuver as he was elected a half year ago for a 5-year Puntland mandate. Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland is now fighting for survival. He is deeply entangled with vicious confrontation with leaders of N&N. How this would end up is everybody’s wild guess.
Prime Minister Khayre’s visit to Galmudugh and Northern Galkayo in an uncoordinated fashion with the local authorities tells volumes of information on how this political game will play out in the next few months and beyond. The plan has risk factors that could spark off renewable of the civil war. It is a daring political gamble. But, it seems to have the overwhelming support of youth in the country. And this is the very reason why N&N leaders are reluctant to approach politics as usual by ignoring community leaders, civil societies and local governments. These are to be undercut and undermined by talking to the people directly. That populalist political approach had made the election of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo possible in 2016, to the surprise of those who regarded themselves political weights.
So far, no local politicians are equipped to deal with the N&N Concept on populalist agenda.This is how electioneering and political campaigns are conducted in democratic one-person one-vote elections. But, the Heads of Federal Member States are doing politics in the conventional Somali ways: clan politics. That is why they are losing battles one after the other. Puntland President Deni had underestimated Khayre’s recent visit to Galkayo by sending junior politicians to deal with the issue. The gathering yesterday in a North Galkayo stadium tells the rest of the story. But, the war has not been won or lost yet, and the final casualties are unpredictable.

ON JUBALAND

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July 7, 2019
There are major issues and minor ones in Jubaland political stand-off and confrontation between FGS and Ahmed Madoobe Administration.
Let us talk about minor issues first. Among them includes, but not limited to, that:
  1. There is a big difference between Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) and Jubaland issues. This is where people err in debating and deliberating on Jubaland.
  2. People also ignore facts: There are many forms of Mr. Ahmed Madoobe. There is Madoobe of the Union of Islamic Courts with their mixture of Al-Shabab and other extremists.
  3. There is Madoobe of Ras Gambooni Brigade
  4. There is Madoobe as Ethiopian Prisoner and Ethiopia supporting Madoobe suddenly.
  5. There is Madoobe of the Free Parliament in Asmara, Eritrea, and there are other forms of Ahmed Madoobe.
As the Head of the Jubaland Administration, he had ignored and marginalized the residents of the Kismayo in favor of new comers that compose of , among others, residents of the Southwest State. Unfortunately, supporters of Ahmed Madoobe now in his confrontation with FGS are those denied of their residence rights, the Harti, upon his election last time.
Let us take up the major issues now, which are of more concern:
  1. Farmaajo-Khayre Administration is engaged in destabilizing Jubaland in its campaign to impose its will on Federal Member States in violation of the Federal Constitution, and thus, unravel the Federal Systen, paving the way to restoration of Central Unitary Authorities hailing from One City-state of Mogadishu by:
  2. Eliminating Ahmed Madoobe as an obstacle to the policies of current FGS leaders.
  3. Dislodging Kenyan Defence Forces KDF as part of AMISOM from Kismayo, whom they see them as defence and political shelter for Ahmed Madoobe.
  4. Paving the way for the establishment of new Jubaland Alliance and reversing the influx of Absame into Lower Jubaland Region
  5. All above measures boil down to FGS leaders’ attempt to seize power in Jubaland State as part of wider game plan to return the country to tyranny and highly centralized unitary government in Mogadishu.
Recommendations.
  1. Resist FGS unconstitutional interference in Jubaland, while not defending Ahmed Madoobe at all.
  2. Have credible and competent candidates for the forthcoming Jubaland Election.

EDITORIAL: THE POLITICS OF MARGINALIZATION

Garowe, June 2, 2019

Politics of marginalization of Jews in Germany didn’t work for the Fuhrer (Hitler). It didn’t work for the Military Junta of Siyad Barre. It is not working for Donald Trump against Muslims in America. It will not work either for Ahmed Madoobe or Farnaajo. That is because, historically, the politics of division and dark conspiracy against certain segments of the citizenship eventually ends up in spectacular fiasco and defeat.

Ungrateful for what Puntland had done in order to re-instate the failed state of Somalia, successive transitional regimes of Mogadishu were trying to marginalize Puntland. They tried to ignore the fact, however, that no matter how hard they try to effect their ill-wish, people of Puntland have staying power to overcome any political obstacles in the way to take the lead for better Somalia.

President Farmaajo, indoctrinated and brain-washed by the marginalization propaganda spun out during the heydays of the Junta, even tried to distance himself from members of Marehan sub-clans to give him room for consolidation of power within Hawie first, thus trying to deflect the image of Siyad Barre, even decorating Villa Somalia with the portrait of Former President, Aden Abdulle Osman (RIP), a pseudo-Hawie late politician of lower clan-lineage.

Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland, deceived by the fallacy of the strength of Ras Gambooni Brigade, Kenyan AMISOM/KDF presence in Kismayo and his false perception that the Ogadens number more than all other Somalis put together, had ignored the political rights and represention of traditional Harti residents of Kismayo.

Thinking that he had successfully neuralized the Harti historical groupings of multiple un-related sub-clans in Jubaland (Marehan,Bajun, Galjecel, Shiikhaal and others, all coming under Harti Law, Xeer Harti, Ogadens not included based on 1925 Treaty between Harti and Ogaden, as Ogadens were limited from Afmadow), he now perceives that Farmaajo Regime in Mogadishu and Marehans are in his way to get re-elected.

Would political marginalization work for him this time? Let us wait and see.

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