October 11, 2019

Since the adoption of the Provisonal Charter of 2004, a political battle has been raging on between federalists and centralists. A turning point in that political war came to half-way win for the federalists in confronting then former FGS President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who had eventually capitulated to the formation of Jubaland. That was a strong message to the centralists that the clock couldn’t be turned backed to the departing position of one city-state status.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his team of Damul-Jadiid had no choice, but to rush up a centrally sponsored formation of Hirshabelle and re-invigrated Galmudugh, as there was a political panic among Hawiye, as they saw themselves being left behind as the rest of Somalia had embraced upon federalism.

The centralists, however, didn’t give up their political struggle to turn the tide of popular desire for decentralization, even after formation of federal member states of Southwest, Hirshabelle and Galmudugh. They had to think of another way to continue the fight against federalists. Since they assumed the Daroods were spearheading the new notion of federalism, they had to find a Darood leader willing to sacrifice his constituency, like Siyaad Barre, for the position of a nominal presidency in Somalia. They struck gold in President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, a Mogadishu born politician of former military regime, whose italian nickname, Farmaajo (cheese), sounds sweet to the residents of Banadir.

Farmaajo, heavily promoted and advertised by centralists, once elected under limelight of popular welcome, immediately started a war against what was supposed to his own power-base in Somalia’s clan politics, just in the same manner his former late boss ran things from Mogadishu then, while trying very hard to unravel the gains of the 2nd Republic. The only difference is that Farmaajo had deceptively chased out even the Marehans to project an inital image that they too aren’t welcome in Villa Somalia.

Regardless of whether the recent Jubaland election was properly and legally conducted or not, the bigger issue was that the centralists were using Farmaajo in the same way they were using HSM then. It looks that Jubaland is another turning point, again, that Somalia resists the temptation to restore one city-state dictatorship. 


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When former Federal President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had the battle to block the formation of Jubaland Federal Member State in May 15, 2013, it was a turning positive point for proponents of the Federal system in Somalia. It was, however, clarion call to anti-federalist forces in Mogadishu political elites. For federalists, Jubaland victory made them complacent and got disarmed. For anti-federalist, it was a wake-call to change course and find out options to fight back. For them, two options were on the table:

1. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Co. had to accept reluctantly the reality on the ground and speed up the process of creating Hawiye federal member states in Central Somalia, Galmudugh and Hirshabelle, to counter the political weight of the established Darood federal member states in Puntlland and Jubaland, on the top of the NFD counties in Kenya and Somali Regional State in Ethiopia. There was panic in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political camp. They had to hurry up.

2. However, the other more effective faction of anti-federalist forces had to change tact by bringing in an electable non-Hawiye opponent of federalism. They put their bet on former prime minister of FGS, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. They struck gold as Farmaajo surprisingly got elected FGS President in 2016 by heavily corrupt members of the Federal Parliament Lower Chamber, while ignoring the non-existent then Upper Chamber.

In turn, Farmaajo had to find a political novice to install him as his loyal prime minister. He had made an unconventional choice of picking up the most unexpected candidate in the eyes of Hiraab political elite and Mogadishu establishment, Hassan Ali Khayre, an outsider and an in-law from Farmaajo wife’s Murursade clan, a non-Hiraab minority Hawiye sub-clan, who would be loyal only to Farmaajo because of Khayre’s vulnerability due to lack of power-base in Mogadishu.

Now, the process of fighting back to undermine the Federal Constitution and unravel federalism had had to begin. The new anti-federalist policies got started with suppressing all promotions and press support for federalism; delaying the Review Process of the incomplete Federal Constitution, creating tension and conflicts in all Federal Member States, and commissioning an unprecedented worldwide social media campaign of Nabad & Nolool (N&N) to mislead and misinform Somali youth.

The success of FGS anti-Federal agenda, in the short period of only two years, is stunning with elimination of most Heads of Federal Member States that begun with removal of Abdullahi Osoble of Hirshabelle, and went on to eliminate Sharif Hassan Adan of Southwest State; Abdiweli Gaas of Puntland and recently Ahmed Du’aale Haaf of Galmudugh.

The challenges to overcome now are Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntlland State and Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) of Jubaland. Both Heads of Regional states have certain vulnerabilities to exploit by Farmaajo anti-federalist team. Both didn’t come to power by popular choice. Both have unpredictable and unreliable members of local parliaments. Both avoid surrounding themselves with the states’ political heavy weights as advisors and consultants. Both have serious political rivals being bankrolled by the FGS leaders. FGS subversive campaigns to destabilize them politically is reportedly well under-way now. For President Deni, it is probably through the Puntland House of Representatives by means of impeachment and non-confidence vote to oust him. For Madoobe, they will probably try Sharif Hassan removal style: Buy him out. If that wouldn’t work, then, use Gaas removal style: support his political rivals with massive financial backing to get rid of him in the forthcoming Jubaland Election in August this year. They could succeed.

For the benefit of those, who do not understand the political dynamics of FGS in Mogadishu, misleading reports and misinformation coming from Somalia abound as to who is in charge in the FGS. Most say that it is Prime Minister Khayre’s one man-show and President Farmaajo is a by-stander.

Nothing further from the truth. According to informed and reliable sources. Khayre is the weakest of all past TFG/FGS Prime Minsters. That is because he has no strong power-base in Mogadishu. Nothing happens in FGS without Farmajo’s permission or knowledge. It is Farmajo, who is dictating Khayre. It is Farmajo, who is anti-Federal and anti-regional administrations. It is Farmajo, who is protecting Khayre. Khayre couldn’t survive a parliament motion against him if it weren’t Farmajo. The entire Hiraab constituency is up against Khayre. Khayre has more parliament MPs support from Darood than from Hawiye. This is Khayre’s strength as FGS Prime Minister because of Farmaajo. It is, actually, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who is pushing hard for unitary central government in gross violation of the Federal Constitution, and, by the way, that is the main reason as to why the FGS doesn’t want to complete the Review of the Constitution to make easier for them to ignore or violate it while it is still in never-ending process. If Farmaajo would get elected in 2020, there would not be a federal constitution. Talk about nominal semi-autonomous regions and central government tyranny.

Their policy strategy is to destroy the Federal Member States, or install their puppet regional leaders in the meantime, hold sham general elections to return to power and establish a strong one city-state with rubber-stamp institutions.

Now, it is a clarion call to forces of Federalism to fight back as it is a wake-call to the residents of Puntland State to contemplate about their destiny in a new Somalia whose leaders are trying to restore One City-state rule.



W.Q: Ismaaciil Xaaji Warsame

“Haduusan aabbahaa Shariif ahaan jirin, dee aniguba Shariif baan ahay”. Su’aashaa waxaa Shariif Xasan weydiiyey Madaxweyne Cabdullaahi Yusuf. Shariif Xasan markaa wuxu ahaa Guddoomiyaha Baarlamaankii KMG ahaa ee Soomaaliya. Su’aashu waxay salka ku hay’saa sicir-bararka madax-dhaqameedyada Soomaalida.

Dawlad Goboleedka Puntland ee aasaas ahaan ka dhisantay madax-dhaqameedyada iyo waxgaradka dadweynaha gobollada midoobay, waxay dhaxashay sadex dabaqo ee madax-dhaqameed:

  1. Soo jireen
  2. Dawladdii Siyaad Barre ka abuurran
  3. Gadaal ka abuurran aan joogsi la hayn

Mar hadday door horseednimo ka qaateen aasaaskii dawladda Puntland, waxay noqdeen awood dawladda ka sarreysa, qaarkoodna uba qaatay in dawladdu tahay shaqaale iyaga hoos imaanaya. Waxba kuma jabna taa, marka laga eego in dawladdu tahay adeeggaha dadweynaha. Waxayse arrintu dhib noqoneysaa markii madax-dhaqameedyadu soo farageliyaan hawl-maalmeedka iyo awoodda dastuuriga ah ee Dawladda, sida ka dhacday Puntland sanaddadii 2000-2001.

Waagaa, Islaan Maxamed Islaan Muuse ayaa fara-marooqsaday curadnimada madax-dhaqameed ee Harti, isagoo u maraya saldhiggiisa Garowe ee ah Magaalo-madaxda Dawladda Puntland. Islaan Maxamed, markaa wuxu qaatay doorka Ayatullaha Puntland. Madaxweynaha Dawladdu, si joogta ah ayuu guriga Islaanka u soo booqan jirey, la tashi iyo salaanba. Xiriirkaa dhaw ee laba mas’uul , wuxu ku dambeeyey in Madaxweynihii Dawladda madaxnimada laga eryo.

Boqor Maxamuud Boor Muuse iyo Islaan Bashiir Islaan Cabdulle, labaduba waa ka curadsanyihiin Islaan Maxammed Islaan Muuse, marka laga eego Saldanada Majeerteen.

Boqor Maxammud wuxu ahaa nin ahlu diin ah, oo inuu duceeyo mooyee, wax kale aan danayn. Yeelkeede, waagaa sharkii waxaa u qaaday ninka maroorsaday wakiilnimada Boqorka, Cabdullaahi Boqor Muuse “King Kong”,deedna isagu Boqorkii noqday. Islaan Bashiir waa nin dhawrsan, afgaaban, siyaasaddana iska ururiya, marar badanna diiday in isaga siyaasad loo adeegsado.

Waxa iyana jirey madax-dhaqameedyo kale oo aan tiro yarayn, curadna ah, door weyna ka soo qaatay guullihii Puntland.

Dhibta madax-dhaqameedyadu waxay mar kale dawladda qabsatay, markii soo jeedin la dhex-keenay Golaha Wasiirrada in gunno loo qoondeeyo Isimada Puntland. Wasiirkii Arrimaha Gudaha, oo markaa ahaa Axmed Cabdi Xaabsade, ayaa ku adkaystay in A, B, C daraja ah loo qoondeeyo gunnada madax-dhaqameedyada, taa oo la isku mariwaayey, go’aankeedana Madaxtooyada Puntland loo daayey. Madaxtooyada uma cuntamin soo jeedinta Wasiir Xaabsade ee A, B, C-da. Saf-balaaran ayey arrintii ku dambeysay.

Waxaa ka soo qaybgalay shirkii Imbagathi ee Kenya 2002-2004, Dhowr Madax-dhqan oo Beesha Mareexaan ah, kuwaa oo Ugaaska Guud ee beeshu, Ugaas Cumar, ka carooday, Shirkiina uga kacay. Waxaa loo saaray madax-dhqameedyo uu hoggaaminayo Garaad Saleemaanka Maxamuud Garaad/Dhulbahante, si ay u soo caro-celiyaan Ugaas Cumar. Ugaas Cumar waxa lagu yiri: “Waxaad tahay, Ugaas, soojireen ah. Waagii Siyaad Barre faragelinayey dhaqanka Soomaaliyeed, isaga oo magaccaabi jirey madax-dhaqameedyo beeleed, waad ka aamustay. Kama aad celin Siyaad Barre, kamana aadan talin khatarta ay faragelintaa uleedahay dhaqanka Soomaaliyeed. Annagu, kuwii uu noo magacaabey Siyaad Barre, ayaan iska qaadanay. Ugaas, adiguna tan aqbal”.

Qore: Ismaaciil X. Warsame
Twitter: @ismailwarsame

Ismaaciil Xaaji Warsame waa qoraa ka faallooda arrimaha siyaasadda Soomalida, waxaanu ka mid ahaa aasaasayaashii dawlad goboleedka Puntland, isagoo islamarkaana ahaa agaasimaihii madaxtooyada Puntland intii u dhexeysay 1998-2004. Ismaaciil waxa uu ka mid yahay qorayaasha sida joogtada ah wax ugu soo qora degelka Wardheernews.