Category: Farmaajo

ANOTHER LOOK AT SOMALI FEDERALISM

Garowe, May 14, 2023

By ISMAIL HAJI WARSAME

ON FEDERALISM

When political opponents say that Puntland State is the mother of federalism, people of Puntland think that they are being praised and recognized for the State’s tremendous sacrifices in men, material and minds in founding the 2nd Somali Republic, the current Federal Republic of Somalia (First Somali Republic existed from 1960-1991). In fact, what protagonists are saying here is that Puntland alone came up with unpractical federal concept that was not applicable nationwide. Sadly also, the history of who had spear-headed in salvaging Somalia from total disintegration and its disappearance from the world map, following the Civil War, had been hidden and buried in the same way that the history of self-government, sultanates and kingdoms that existed in Puntland regions long before European colonial powers came to Somalia, were buried to be never told in Somalia’s political and history narratives. We were made to believe that the history of the struggle of the people of Somalia to be free and own their state and government started from Derwish leader Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan. That was how Siyad Barre was formulating Somali history for twenty-one years in power with iron fist.

Now, let us come back to our today’s theme: Federalism

Is Somalia’s federalism de facto or de jure? Was federalism a part of public debate in Somalia from 1960-1991? Other than the rise of SSDF as opposition movement against military regime and a small elements of intellectuals and former politicians from Digil&Mirifle before independence (inugu federaal fadnee?), was there any public awareness of desire for federalism? Was federalism imposed on Somali people by laws of government? Could someone do something to prevent it from happening at that time? Can anyone do something today to eliminate it from Somalia’s political discourse, body politic and laws of the land? What are the political consequences or the legacy of the Civil War? Isn’t the failure of the Somali State resulting in de facto “federalism” a part of Somali political narrative and outcome of the Civil War? Are the root causes of the Civil War still addressed? What guarantees in Somalia’s political and security situation today do we have to ensure that yesterday’s political blunders wouldn’t be repeated?

It is noteworthy to remind Somali people that

  1. Federalism and its variety of confederalism finds relevance in Somalia’s traditional clan society where most clans are more bonded by federation than by blood lineages. The infamous 4.5 clans are confederate clans. Most clans in Somalia are social constructs for strengthening them numerically for common protection. Nowadays, Somali Clan confederates are lately used for securing political edge in power-sharing rivalry.
  2. Still some shamelessly propagate that Somalia’s Federalism was derived or adopted from ethnic Ethiopian federalism. Knowing historical facts about national efforts of re-instating Somali State after its failure in January 1991, and having participated in most national reconciliation process, I confirm that Ethiopian involvement in the drafting of Somalia’s governance holds no water. Some Somalia’s constituencies were demanding federal system long before independence. It is a fallacy to interpret Somali federalism that way. It is just another anti-federalist tactics to unravel the modest gains of the Federal System and discredit its supporters. Unfortunately, many gullible Somali citizens bought this dangerous falsehood.
  3. Another misinformation is that Puntland State is part of Southern Somalia. That is the same as the notion that SSC is part of Somaliland now, given colonial history. Puntland State is located geographically in Northeast and parts of Northwest regions of Somalia and colonial borders had lost relevance after the Act of Union of 1960 forming the Somali Republic.
  4. Finally, Mogadishu and Hargheisa have same misleading policy on Puntland State: They propagate that Puntland is part of Southern Somalia and SCC is part of Somaliland. This is neither true nor acceptable to us.

The situation on the Somalia’s “Debt Relief” is worse than you think. Interest payments or “Debt Servicing” on Somalia’s Sovereign Debt is paid by the people of Somalia, including those in Puntland State. It is paid from portions of bilateral and international donations. The Central Government divides these donations into two portions, one going to debt Somalia’s servicing, and the other portion is further subdivided, small amounts of which are thrown to FMS in the same way you throw pieces of meat or fish at lunch table to the cats, and the bulk of it is burned in Mogadishu and used for non-stop international travels of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. People of Puntland are among those paying these big-ticket expenditures.

Make no mistake. “Fiscal Federalism” you hear about these days is being negotiated and conducted under these abnormal situation. Don’t expect any fair distribution of resources any time soon, if this course of action is maintained.

Legislations and institution-building are runaway power abuses and corruption. Best examples are recent laws of NISA, Petroleum, and Fishery, just to name a few. Who passes these laws in Federal Parliament, by the way? Yes, by the federal parliament representatives of Puntland State, among others, because if they don’t conform to the political dictations of Southern leaders, they wouldn’t be safe in Mogadishu. 

Now, tell me how Puntland State could work with Mogadishu Regime, which respects no agreements and laws of the land with total disregard to the governance system most Somalis agreed upon? This gives you an idea on what is happening between FGS and Puntland State.

 People say let us complete the Federal Constitution. More questions arise here:

 The question is whose constitution is it? 

  1. Is it a national constitution or a constitution of South Central Somalia? 
  2. Where does Somaliland stand here? 
  3. Are we talking about negotiations between South and North Somalia again, after a constitution for South Central Somalia is passed with potential Puntland State unwise consent?
  4. Where do Puntland’s SSC Regions stand here? 
  5. What about one and half region state in Central Somalia supposed to be an “Interim administration”, but now having the same rights and status as Puntland State? 
  6. What about other mini-states whose headquarters are located in or operating from Mogadishu, challenging Puntland State at Madasha Qaranka, and Mogadishu Regime is using them against Puntland State’s legitimate concerns? 
  7. In conclusion, would Puntland State past MOUs and agreements with the Central Government since 2009 need ratification by Puntland constitutional bodies?

I leave you with these questions to ponder.

 However, I warn you that the struggle between pros and cons of federalism will go on until one side wins the game. Keep fighting.

CONCLUSIONS

To reiterate, federalism is a de facto or force majeure that happened in Somalia following the vicious Civil War in the country. Puntland Vision from 1998 and TFG of Somalia Charter recognized this historical and socio-economic facts on the ground in Somalia.

Is the notion that federalism couldn’t function or isn’t feasible in Somalia holds truth? Could you improve this debate further to argue that this claim wasn’t consistent with historical facts and reality on the ground?

Since TFG of Somalia, the country had four presidential mandates: Sharif Ahmed, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) 1.0, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and HSM 2.0? Tell me one of them, who had spent time making federalism work in Somalia? If you want to build a house, and do not move to realize the dream, would it be built by itself? These past and present Somali federal leaders were either undermining or trying to dismantle it. In other words, they were not converts of federalism. That is why opponents of federalism were quick to denounce federalism as incompatible for Somali culture and it couldn’t function well in Somalia. This is a fallacy. Federalism is a reality on the ground in Somalia. Puntland State is a living example that federalism does work in Somalia.

However, there is a vicious cycle in Federal Member States too. Federalism meant to decentralize authority or power to Elected District councils (remember federal government is three levels: FGS, FMS and District Councils).  This never happened before Puntland State. That is good news for federalism in Somalia.

But federalism has many forms. There are asymmetrical, confederal and other forms of federalism. However, it takes two to a tango (single person doesn’t play dhaanto by himself/herself). Whom to talk to on this issue, if Mogadishu governments aren’t ready or interested. They are also against democratization and will of the people. There is one political position of Somaliland Administration I used to admire in my past political experience: “Whom to talk to in Southern Somalia?” This situation still holds true to Mogadishu political situation. Are there political space and environment in Mogadishu today to talk about fiscal federalism, common security architecture and federal legislations in parliament not sensitive to the concerns of FMS?

FARMAAJO’S APOLOGY TO SOMALILAND IS BRUTALLY SELECTIVE

While all people of goodwill would welcome the President’s apology to Somaliland’s unilateral claim of atrocities by Barre’s Junta, he deliberately, or, naively ignores the war crimes and gross human rights violations committed by the regime in Mudugh and Kismaayo. Add to this, the banditry, plunder and robbery of Barre’s retreating and fleeing forces in Bay and Bakool regions in the last days of regime’s collapse.


If Farmaajo had had any common sense and any sort of what it takes a leader to address such an important issue, he would have apologized for all atrocities of Siyaad Barre’s Regime. By apologizing to Somaliland alone, on temporary political expediency, he has complicated the situation: Now, he is required to apologize to the residents of Mudugh for Barre’s mass incarceration, killing, maining of innocent citizens en masses, destruction and poisoning of nomads’s water-holes, rape and other human rights violations amounting to undoubtedly war crimes.


Make no mistake, any effort towards yet to be called for national reconciliation talks, those atrocities in Mudugh by Barre and his henchmen shall stand out, without which popular trust in national government and public institutions couldn’t be achieved.


Finally, it is my hope that the leaders and people of Somaliland would seize this opportunity by allowing  President Farmaajo to visit Hargeisa without the entourage of Prime Minister Ethiopia, Abyi Ahmed Ali. People of Somaliland deserves better than that.

(Photo: The late politician from Mudugh, Yusuf Osman Samater, who had spent 18 years in Regime’s solitary confinement prison cell without charge).


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A WORD OF PRAISE TO SOMALIA’S FORMER PRESIDENTS

October 18, 2019


They say, give the devil his dues. The former Somalia’s Presidents of the Federal Government, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, have become politically mature enough to keep engaged in Somali affairs, irrespective of their political ambitions to seek 2nd chance at the Federal Presidency. That is citizenship. They sought public service to a make a difference. They know they had left huge problems behind and figured out that they still could contribute to a better Somalia. The mere fact that they are still publicly engaged in to help resolve Somalia’s predicaments as active and enlightened citizens of Somalia is highly commendable. Compare them with Abdulqassin Salad Hassan and Ali Mahdi Mohamed. What do you say to that?


Also engaged and still  politically active is  former federal Prime Minister, Ali Mohamed Geedi. He deserves praise for still getting involved in fixing Somalia. Compare him with the two Abdiwelis, CCC and Saacid. Are they even comparable to him? I know they would say that they had had their term and they couldn’t meddle in other politician’s mandate. But, we all know that they are still politically as ambitious as Farmaajo and Khayre.


Former President of Puntland State, Senator Abdirahman Faroole, turned out to fare far better politically speaking, and in terms of good citizenship than the two Abdiwelis, CCC and Saacid combined. Would you argue?


In fact, one could argue that those politicians, who have turned out to be indifferent to Somalia’s plight and daily suffering and struggles of the citizens, after they were rewarded with the full trust of the masses in the highest offices of the land, were fake and selfish, in the first place. Do you agree? 

It is rather disappointing as it is surprising that even Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame is doing a much better job in Somalia’s politics than a bunch of our former prime ministers and state presidents.


Have your say.


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ON JUBALAND, NOW MADOOBE FORCEFULLY RE-INSTALLED 3RD TIME,  WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

October 13, 2019


So, Ahmed Madoobe is proclaimed President of Jubaland for 3rd time, now three times consecutively, in exchange for the destruction of Jubaland natural environment and perinnial rainforest, turning the entire vinicity and Kismayo Port black with coal ashes; with extremists still occupying entire Jubaland, save Kismayo City, which still enjoys the administration of warlordism and one-man show, with the extra security threat this time around to Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity from Kenya at mercy of autistic-like political leader at the helm of the Federal Government of Somalia.


Was the whole purpose of Madoobe’s Inauguration involves in doing more harm to the causes of the residents of jubaland and Somalia under the incompetent, short-sided, selfish and vengeful leadership of Farmaajo-Khayre feeble and pity dictators? 


Where do we go now from here to try to fix this mess created by Farmaajo Team?


Read what the Ethiopian intellectuals and scholars are concluding on FGS, in their October 2019 CDRC DIGGEST Journal, Vol 4 No 4:


“This is similar to how the Islamic Courts Union dealt with their opponents to emerge as the sole power in Southern Somalia from 2005 until early 2007. Currently the SFG is facing a dual challenge: addressing the threats that Al-Shabaab poses on the one hand and asserting itself as the de facto and de jure government of the entire country and the federal member states on the other.


 It appears that the SFG has yet to show progress on both fronts. The assault it has waged on the FMS has created fault lines that Al-Shabaab is manipulating. The situation of the Sourhwest, Galmudug and Hir-Shebelle states and the strength that AlShabaab is showing indicate these fault lines. Puntland and Jubaland have survived the onslaught of the SFG and are reasserting themselves in their respective areas of control, although the SFG is trying to asphyxiate them, Jubaland in particular. But these confrontations will not help either the SFG or these contesting FMS, as resources spent on self-defense and attacks could have been used to strengthen each other against a common enemy”


Prime Minister Abyi Ahmed of Ethiopia has just won the Nobel Peace Price for job well done for the entire Region, while President Farmaajo is being accusing of dismembering his own country and allowing extremists to multiply and get bolder under his watch.


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PRESIDENT FARMAAJO CLARIFIES HIS POSITION: WDM EDITORIAL


September 30, 2019


Now that President Farmaajo has clarified his position on Somalia-Kenya maritime dispute, and provided Somalia’s ICJ Court victory, it would be in the best interest of Kenya to accept such court verdict to earn the goodwill of Somalia for mutually beneficial future cooperation. Kenyans will benefit immensely from Somali oil and gas explorations in the Indian Ocean in many ways, including high employment of Kenyans and huge other economic benefits.


Somalia has the longest Indian Ocean and Red Sea coastlines, almost unutilyzed and unexploited. It makes no economic and sustainable security sense not to allow sharing this economic potential with the land-locked countries in Region, Ethiopia being the first to benefit. It is huge opportunity for Somalis to tap into the largest markets of Ethiopia in exchange for lasting peace, cooperation and friendship. 


Somalis just need to sort out their governance problems first to become one of the most prosperous and powerful nations in Africa. 


To achieve this objective, and as a starting point, let all Federal Members States thrive in peace and stability together with a Federal Government, respecting the laws of the land and working towards national reconciliation.


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IS PUNTLAND TOO EASY TO GET DESTABILIZED WITH QADARI RIYALS?

July 21, 2019

Many people thought that PUNTLAND is too hard a nut to crack against the use of the left-overs of Qadari Riyals from Mogadishu. Successful transfer of money laundered through N&N activists under the cover of various development projects in several Puntland cities is slowly taking hold.

The quick pace of this FGS money laundering is too fast for President Deni Administration to catch up. It is just reacting to the events, while badly failing to warn Xawilaadaha (Money Transfer Bureaus) about the crime and penalties of FGS money laundering operations in Puntland.

Money could be a tool of war, and in the FGS case, it is a destabilizing campaign. At moment, Galkayo and Bosaso, the most heavily populated towns of Puntland are FGS targets in an attempt to shake up the foundations of Puntland. Will that work out?

That depends on how the Deni Government would be able to win the hearts and minds of the youth of Puntland, the 70% of the population. It would require Puntland President to often come out of the fence of Villa Puntland and talk to the people, for if he doesn’t do that, someone else would do it for him, and it will not be humorous in the end.

In the light of the recent FGS flagrant meddling in the internal affairs of State’s jurisdictions under the Federal Constitution, the entire political, cultural and security machineries of Puntland should get into high gear to confront any destabilizing factors, including the chronic absence of youth guidance and orientation.

Let us be clear of what Puntland State stands for, where it came from, at what costs and why?

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(Photo credit: HIRNEWS)

UNDERSTAND N&N GOVERNMENT POLITICS AND POLICIES, DON’T BANDWAGON

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July 17, 2019

N&N Government supporters, could you answer these basic questions:

1. Have you ever heard of N&N Government speaking about or promoting the very law of the land, the Federal Constitution, upon which the three branches of government are based?

2. Under which Somali constitution President Farmaajo was elected in 2016?

3. What happens if the leaders of a state and government do not respect and adhere to the laws of the country?

4. Why does the Constitutional Upper Chamber of Somali Parliament has difficulties to function in Mogadishu? Who is holding it back and why?

5. What is happening to the Review of the Federal Constitution that being held hostage by N&N Government?

6. In your mind, how do you interpret President Farmaajo’s many statements declaring that he wanted to build a strong Central Government?

7. Would there be a strong democratic federal Somali government without strong people and viable federal member states?

8. And finally, why are they not promoting the Federalism System, the only system of governance that all warring clans of Somalia could agree to in 2004, following the Civil War?

By answering these basic questions, you would wise up to the meaning and objectives of N/N. In the end, you would be a supporter of either the idea of restoring a strong Mogadishu City-state, or a blind follower of a N&N bandwagon? If you are supporting N/N, but you aren’t either of the above, then you are a critical thinker and you will do well.

Alernatively, if you would prefer tyranny, dictatorship and suppression of your basic human rights, I wish you well.

In conclusion, I would give you heads-up about life and politics in Mogadishu:

Elders who had returned to Mogadishu to support N&N Government almost all have left Mogadishu for these reasons:

a) N&N Government is pursuing wrong-headed policies through unconstitutional means.

b) Hawiye political and financial elites don’t want a government at any level, let alone a functioning one. They think they are better off that way amid anarchy of stateless and predatory business enterprises.

c) Al-Shabab and other extremist entities couldn’t operate freely in Mogadishu without having support and protection from the masses there.

In this regard, a lot of youth express support for N&N Government, not knowing the danger of policies they are bandwagonning now.

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FOR STUDENTS OF SOMALI HISTORY

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July 16, 2019

Do you know the three phases of Somalia’s Military Government in the period of 1969 – 1991?

ANSWERS:

1. Military-Administrative Government. In this phase, Somalia had made significant progress that captured the attention of the people of Somalia and the world.

2. One-man rule Government, an absolute dictatorship. In this phase, things went wrong in Somalia, and turned to the worst.

3. Client Government. In this phase, Dictatorship gave way to the rule of corrupt elite created by the Regime and hailing from all clans of Somalia. This was the end of Somalia as we knew it, that led to the status of “failed State”

The last phase (3) is now reflected in the current Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States. If things go on course as they are now, what you expect for is obvious.

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N&N 2020 GENERAL ELECTION PLAYBOOK IS WELL UNDERWAY NOW

July 11, 2018
N&N Concept Note on Federal Election 2020 boils down to removing the carpet under the feet of leaders of the Federal Member States by-passing them to convey N&N message directly to the general public, especially to the youth. So far, the plan is working well.
The remaining hold-outs among the Heads of the Federal Member States are feeling the N&N political pressure now to either give in or get eliminated. The battle grounds are now shifting to Puntland and Jubaland. In the case of Puntland, there is still a political space for Puntland President Deni to maneuver as he was elected a half year ago for a 5-year Puntland mandate. Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland is now fighting for survival. He is deeply entangled with vicious confrontation with leaders of N&N. How this would end up is everybody’s wild guess.
Prime Minister Khayre’s visit to Galmudugh and Northern Galkayo in an uncoordinated fashion with the local authorities tells volumes of information on how this political game will play out in the next few months and beyond. The plan has risk factors that could spark off renewable of the civil war. It is a daring political gamble. But, it seems to have the overwhelming support of youth in the country. And this is the very reason why N&N leaders are reluctant to approach politics as usual by ignoring community leaders, civil societies and local governments. These are to be undercut and undermined by talking to the people directly. That populalist political approach had made the election of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo possible in 2016, to the surprise of those who regarded themselves political weights.
So far, no local politicians are equipped to deal with the N&N Concept on populalist agenda.This is how electioneering and political campaigns are conducted in democratic one-person one-vote elections. But, the Heads of Federal Member States are doing politics in the conventional Somali ways: clan politics. That is why they are losing battles one after the other. Puntland President Deni had underestimated Khayre’s recent visit to Galkayo by sending junior politicians to deal with the issue. The gathering yesterday in a North Galkayo stadium tells the rest of the story. But, the war has not been won or lost yet, and the final casualties are unpredictable.

ON JUBALAND

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July 7, 2019
There are major issues and minor ones in Jubaland political stand-off and confrontation between FGS and Ahmed Madoobe Administration.
Let us talk about minor issues first. Among them includes, but not limited to, that:
  1. There is a big difference between Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) and Jubaland issues. This is where people err in debating and deliberating on Jubaland.
  2. People also ignore facts: There are many forms of Mr. Ahmed Madoobe. There is Madoobe of the Union of Islamic Courts with their mixture of Al-Shabab and other extremists.
  3. There is Madoobe of Ras Gambooni Brigade
  4. There is Madoobe as Ethiopian Prisoner and Ethiopia supporting Madoobe suddenly.
  5. There is Madoobe of the Free Parliament in Asmara, Eritrea, and there are other forms of Ahmed Madoobe.
As the Head of the Jubaland Administration, he had ignored and marginalized the residents of the Kismayo in favor of new comers that compose of , among others, residents of the Southwest State. Unfortunately, supporters of Ahmed Madoobe now in his confrontation with FGS are those denied of their residence rights, the Harti, upon his election last time.
Let us take up the major issues now, which are of more concern:
  1. Farmaajo-Khayre Administration is engaged in destabilizing Jubaland in its campaign to impose its will on Federal Member States in violation of the Federal Constitution, and thus, unravel the Federal Systen, paving the way to restoration of Central Unitary Authorities hailing from One City-state of Mogadishu by:
  2. Eliminating Ahmed Madoobe as an obstacle to the policies of current FGS leaders.
  3. Dislodging Kenyan Defence Forces KDF as part of AMISOM from Kismayo, whom they see them as defence and political shelter for Ahmed Madoobe.
  4. Paving the way for the establishment of new Jubaland Alliance and reversing the influx of Absame into Lower Jubaland Region
  5. All above measures boil down to FGS leaders’ attempt to seize power in Jubaland State as part of wider game plan to return the country to tyranny and highly centralized unitary government in Mogadishu.
Recommendations.
  1. Resist FGS unconstitutional interference in Jubaland, while not defending Ahmed Madoobe at all.
  2. Have credible and competent candidates for the forthcoming Jubaland Election.

ANYBODY KNOWS SAMIRA GAID? KENYAN INTELLIGENCE INFILTRATING FGS?

Samira is in the news again, reportedly facilitating communication link-up between Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khayre and top Kenyan officials in a back-channel setup. This is an earlier WDM post on the same issue:

“Samira Kaid, who is Hassan Kheire’s special secretary, also takes home an immoral $12,000 from EU through UNPOS against existing donor and FGS regulations. Samira is engaged in unprofessional, unethical work practices that the prime minister either shamelessly condones or has his express approval. This means, since he sanctions or entertains unprofessionalism and unethical practices, the prime minister is himself unprofessional and unethical. One wonders what happened to his “islaxisaabtan” and anti-corruption tough talk?

Samira Kaid is confirmed to lack college degree. She reportedly used fake papers in her previous employments with AMISOM. Kheire hired her without due diligence and when the facts against Samira came out he ignored calls for him to address Samira fraudulent practice. Instead he irregularly rewards her with such a mind boggling tidy sum and other kickbacks.

Samira claims to have worked for Kenya’s State House presidential press unit as a communications specialist. She lamented her close relationships with someone that she resigned because she was viewed with suspicion, sidelined and discriminated against by her colleagues from other Kenyan communities because she was Somali. But others say she lasted there for only a few weeks because of fraud related with forged college papers.”

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SOMALIA: FEDERALISM MORTALLY WOUNDED, HAS PUNTLAND LOST BATTLE OR WAR?

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FEDERALISM IN SOMALIA AT CROSS-ROADS

When former Federal President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had the battle to block the formation of Jubaland Federal Member State in May 15, 2013, it was a turning positive point for proponents of the Federal system in Somalia. It was, however, clarion call to anti-federalist forces in Mogadishu political elites. For federalists, Jubaland victory made them complacent and got disarmed. For anti-federalist, it was a wake-call to change course and find out options to fight back. For them, two options were on the table:

1. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Co. had to accept reluctantly the reality on the ground and speed up the process of creating Hawiye federal member states in Central Somalia, Galmudugh and Hirshabelle, to counter the political weight of the established Darood federal member states in Puntlland and Jubaland, on the top of the NFD counties in Kenya and Somali Regional State in Ethiopia. There was panic in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political camp. They had to hurry up.

2. However, the other more effective faction of anti-federalist forces had to change tact by bringing in an electable non-Hawiye opponent of federalism. They put their bet on former prime minister of FGS, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. They struck gold as Farmaajo surprisingly got elected FGS President in 2016 by heavily corrupt members of the Federal Parliament Lower Chamber, while ignoring the non-existent then Upper Chamber.

In turn, Farmaajo had to find a political novice to install him as his loyal prime minister. He had made an unconventional choice of picking up the most unexpected candidate in the eyes of Hiraab political elite and Mogadishu establishment, Hassan Ali Khayre, an outsider and an in-law from Farmaajo wife’s Murursade clan, a non-Hiraab minority Hawiye sub-clan, who would be loyal only to Farmaajo because of Khayre’s vulnerability due to lack of power-base in Mogadishu.

Now, the process of fighting back to undermine the Federal Constitution and unravel federalism had had to begin. The new anti-federalist policies got started with suppressing all promotions and press support for federalism; delaying the Review Process of the incomplete Federal Constitution, creating tension and conflicts in all Federal Member States, and commissioning an unprecedented worldwide social media campaign of Nabad & Nolool (N&N) to mislead and misinform Somali youth.

The success of FGS anti-Federal agenda, in the short period of only two years, is stunning with elimination of most Heads of Federal Member States that begun with removal of Abdullahi Osoble of Hirshabelle, and went on to eliminate Sharif Hassan Adan of Southwest State; Abdiweli Gaas of Puntland and recently Ahmed Du’aale Haaf of Galmudugh.

The challenges to overcome now are Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntlland State and Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) of Jubaland. Both Heads of Regional states have certain vulnerabilities to exploit by Farmaajo anti-federalist team. Both didn’t come to power by popular choice. Both have unpredictable and unreliable members of local parliaments. Both avoid surrounding themselves with the states’ political heavy weights as advisors and consultants. Both have serious political rivals being bankrolled by the FGS leaders. FGS subversive campaigns to destabilize them politically is reportedly well under-way now. For President Deni, it is probably through the Puntland House of Representatives by means of impeachment and non-confidence vote to oust him. For Madoobe, they will probably try Sharif Hassan removal style: Buy him out. If that wouldn’t work, then, use Gaas removal style: support his political rivals with massive financial backing to get rid of him in the forthcoming Jubaland Election in August this year. They could succeed.

For the benefit of those, who do not understand the political dynamics of FGS in Mogadishu, misleading reports and misinformation coming from Somalia abound as to who is in charge in the FGS. Most say that it is Prime Minister Khayre’s one man-show and President Farmaajo is a by-stander.

Nothing further from the truth. According to informed and reliable sources. Khayre is the weakest of all past TFG/FGS Prime Minsters. That is because he has no strong power-base in Mogadishu. Nothing happens in FGS without Farmajo’s permission or knowledge. It is Farmajo, who is dictating Khayre. It is Farmajo, who is anti-Federal and anti-regional administrations. It is Farmajo, who is protecting Khayre. Khayre couldn’t survive a parliament motion against him if it weren’t Farmajo. The entire Hiraab constituency is up against Khayre. Khayre has more parliament MPs support from Darood than from Hawiye. This is Khayre’s strength as FGS Prime Minister because of Farmaajo. It is, actually, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who is pushing hard for unitary central government in gross violation of the Federal Constitution, and, by the way, that is the main reason as to why the FGS doesn’t want to complete the Review of the Constitution to make easier for them to ignore or violate it while it is still in never-ending process. If Farmaajo would get elected in 2020, there would not be a federal constitution. Talk about nominal semi-autonomous regions and central government tyranny.

Their policy strategy is to destroy the Federal Member States, or install their puppet regional leaders in the meantime, hold sham general elections to return to power and establish a strong one city-state with rubber-stamp institutions.

Now, it is a clarion call to forces of Federalism to fight back as it is a wake-call to the residents of Puntland State to contemplate about their destiny in a new Somalia whose leaders are trying to restore One City-state rule.

https://ismailwarsame.blog

@ismailwarsame

THE SOMALI DOCTRINE

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June 28, 2019
Never re-elect a political leader is a Somali Doctrine and our contribution to the world of politics and political culture. The Doctrine is an exercise of democracy stretched to the maximum possible. It is consistent with George Orwellian famous quote that diapers and political leaders should be changed.
However, the Somali phenomenon has double edges. On the one hand, it cements a message to the president-elect or would-be elected that he or she wouldn’t have a 2nd chance, giving them only to choose one of two options:
  1. Abuse the system while have the chance
  2. Do something worthwhile to leave behind a good reputation, a proud nation and good name for own kids and family.
The Doctrine, on the other hand, had brought misfortune to the people of Somalia by producing bad and corrupt politicians one after the other.
Based on history and experience, most Somali leaders choose the first option. Hence, Somalis have become cynical of politics and politicians.
The Somali Doctrine is deeply rooted in its logic that, where corruption is of epidemic proportion and checks and balance of power aren’t in place or difficult to implement because of this malfeasance, the only choice left for Somalis to fight back is to not never return a political leader to power.

The problem with Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland is that he has stubbornly violated that Somali Doctrine.

Call it the ingenuity of the Somali Doctrine.