Category: Ahmed Madoobe

ON JUBALAND, NOW MADOOBE FORCEFULLY RE-INSTALLED 3RD TIME,  WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

October 13, 2019


So, Ahmed Madoobe is proclaimed President of Jubaland for 3rd time, now three times consecutively, in exchange for the destruction of Jubaland natural environment and perinnial rainforest, turning the entire vinicity and Kismayo Port black with coal ashes; with extremists still occupying entire Jubaland, save Kismayo City, which still enjoys the administration of warlordism and one-man show, with the extra security threat this time around to Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity from Kenya at mercy of autistic-like political leader at the helm of the Federal Government of Somalia.


Was the whole purpose of Madoobe’s Inauguration involves in doing more harm to the causes of the residents of jubaland and Somalia under the incompetent, short-sided, selfish and vengeful leadership of Farmaajo-Khayre feeble and pity dictators? 


Where do we go now from here to try to fix this mess created by Farmaajo Team?


Read what the Ethiopian intellectuals and scholars are concluding on FGS, in their October 2019 CDRC DIGGEST Journal, Vol 4 No 4:


“This is similar to how the Islamic Courts Union dealt with their opponents to emerge as the sole power in Southern Somalia from 2005 until early 2007. Currently the SFG is facing a dual challenge: addressing the threats that Al-Shabaab poses on the one hand and asserting itself as the de facto and de jure government of the entire country and the federal member states on the other.


 It appears that the SFG has yet to show progress on both fronts. The assault it has waged on the FMS has created fault lines that Al-Shabaab is manipulating. The situation of the Sourhwest, Galmudug and Hir-Shebelle states and the strength that AlShabaab is showing indicate these fault lines. Puntland and Jubaland have survived the onslaught of the SFG and are reasserting themselves in their respective areas of control, although the SFG is trying to asphyxiate them, Jubaland in particular. But these confrontations will not help either the SFG or these contesting FMS, as resources spent on self-defense and attacks could have been used to strengthen each other against a common enemy”


Prime Minister Abyi Ahmed of Ethiopia has just won the Nobel Peace Price for job well done for the entire Region, while President Farmaajo is being accusing of dismembering his own country and allowing extremists to multiply and get bolder under his watch.


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ANOTHER TURNING POINT IN SOMALIA’S GOVERNANCE


October 11, 2019


Since the adoption of the Provisonal Charter of 2004, a political battle has been raging on between federalists and centralists. A turning point in that political war came to half-way win for the federalists in confronting then former FGS President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who had eventually capitulated to the formation of Jubaland. That was a strong message to the centralists that the clock couldn’t be turned backed to the departing position of one city-state status.


President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his team of Damul-Jadiid had no choice, but to rush up a centrally sponsored formation of Hirshabelle and re-invigrated Galmudugh, as there was a political panic among Hawiye, as they saw themselves being left behind as the rest of Somalia had embraced upon federalism.


The centralists, however, didn’t give up their political struggle to turn the tide of popular desire for decentralization, even after formation of federal member states of Southwest, Hirshabelle and Galmudugh. They had to think of another way to continue the fight against federalists. Since they assumed the Daroods were spearheading the new notion of federalism, they had to find a Darood leader willing to sacrifice his constituency, like Siyaad Barre, for the position of a nominal presidency in Somalia. They struck gold in President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, a Mogadishu born politician of former military regime, whose italian nickname, Farmaajo (cheese), sounds sweet to the residents of Banadir.


Farmaajo, heavily promoted and advertised by centralists, once elected under limelight of popular welcome, immediately started a war against what was supposed to his own power-base in Somalia’s clan politics, just in the same manner his former late boss ran things from Mogadishu then, while trying very hard to unravel the gains of the 2nd Republic. The only difference is that Farmaajo had deceptively chased out even the Marehans to project an inital image that they too aren’t welcome in Villa Somalia.


Regardless of whether the recent Jubaland election was properly and legally conducted or not, the bigger issue was that the centralists were using Farmaajo in the same way they were using HSM then. It looks that Jubaland is another turning point, again, that Somalia resists the temptation to restore one city-state dictatorship. 


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THE DEBATE IS ON CONFEDERALISM NOW, NOT FEDERALISM ANYMORE.

October 9, 2019

Those, who are still talking about Federalism in Somalia are way behind the times. Federalism is history here, at least in the minds of Somali thinkers. That is because N&N Government managers have been interpreting federalism to mean nothing more than a dictatorship by a city-state in the same way former Somali leaders ruled, until the fall of the Military Regime in 1991.

The debate is now raging on, on how to implement a fair and reliable governance formula consistent with Somali values as confederal system.

Confederation is a term understandable to most Somalis as confederate clans existed throughout Somali history. Raxanweyn or digil&Mirifle, Isaaq, Cawl-Yahan of Ogaden etc, are all confederate clans respectively, not blood-related. They are purely political confederates – even Hawiye is a confederate of clans.

Now, we are debating on macro-confederates at state level based on Somali traditional history and anthropology to officially formulate confederalism as the most suitable system of government.

As a starting point, the Provisional Federal Constitution must be revised to reflect on that reality with constitutionally defined powers for the shared central authority and confederal member states.

The future prime ministers of the shared central authority of Somalia should come from confederal member states on rotational order at consultations of confederal member states and the shared Somali central authority. The President of the shared central authority should be elected by all confederal member states in a national electoral process through one-person-one-vote. Choosing one of the leaders of confederal member states includes in this arrangement. Example, Dubai Ruler, Sheikh Mohammed, is the Prime Minister of UAE.

Confederalism is a native idea whose time and yours have come at right moment. Seize it.

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N&N POLITICAL ROADMAP DISCOVERED. Read this article for free.

September 26, 2019


Briefly explained, the “Political Roadmap” of Farmaajo-Khayre fledgling Federal Government (Federal by name only) consists of the following stages:

  1. Return to power 2020/21 by any means necessary;
  2. Dismantle and destruction of the Federal Member States in former Italian Somalia;
  3. Negotiations with former British Somaliland on a “New South-North Federalism”.

Somali observers believe that N&N Regime is already succeeding in the implementation of that bold Policy Roadmap with the elemination of resistance from Southwest State, Galmudugh and Hirshabelle, thus  the hard nuts to crack becoming Puntland and Jubaland. Jubaland is being tackled with right now, Puntland has been infiltrated at both civil society and political establishment levels. There are many people from Jubaland and Puntland states openly supporting N&N wild anti-federalist and destructive policies. These supporters constitute core supporters and base, who would prop up and follow N&N Government treasonous policies no matter what, acting in the same manners the hardened base supporters of US President Donald Trump.


Now that the N&N policy Roadmap is decoded, WDM readers, and Somali people as whole, could understand the strange behavior of President Farmaajo and Prime Minister towards Federal Member States. This is also the reason behind the purging of Puntlanders from Federal Public Service, and replacing them with personnel of Somaliland origin. 


The Administration of “Somaliland” is in complicit in the implementation of this N&N Policy Roadmap, though indirectly, in two ways:

  1. Support to Al-Shabab terrorist operations in Southern Somalia, thus denying security and stability in South-Central Somalia.
  2. Dismantle of Federal Member States

Have you ever heard the leaders of “Somaliland” condemning N&N destructive actions and abuses against Jubaland, Southwest, Galmudugh and Hirshabelle? Why, after all these are Somalis, whose human rights are being violated by regime supposed to protect them? Think about it.

Don’t be surprised if N&N Government cuts a deal with Kenya on the Maritime Dispute at expense of Jubaland to get rid of Jubaland resistance to N&N wild and adventurist Political Roadmap.

Stay tuned for more.


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IS JUBALAND POLITICAL MEDDLING NECESSARY?

Postscript: Some people incorrectly think the blog is writing about presence of Former Puntland President, Faroole, in Kismayo. Apology for creating that impression.

N&N 2020 GENERAL ELECTION PLAYBOOK IS WELL UNDERWAY NOW

July 11, 2018
N&N Concept Note on Federal Election 2020 boils down to removing the carpet under the feet of leaders of the Federal Member States by-passing them to convey N&N message directly to the general public, especially to the youth. So far, the plan is working well.
The remaining hold-outs among the Heads of the Federal Member States are feeling the N&N political pressure now to either give in or get eliminated. The battle grounds are now shifting to Puntland and Jubaland. In the case of Puntland, there is still a political space for Puntland President Deni to maneuver as he was elected a half year ago for a 5-year Puntland mandate. Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland is now fighting for survival. He is deeply entangled with vicious confrontation with leaders of N&N. How this would end up is everybody’s wild guess.
Prime Minister Khayre’s visit to Galmudugh and Northern Galkayo in an uncoordinated fashion with the local authorities tells volumes of information on how this political game will play out in the next few months and beyond. The plan has risk factors that could spark off renewable of the civil war. It is a daring political gamble. But, it seems to have the overwhelming support of youth in the country. And this is the very reason why N&N leaders are reluctant to approach politics as usual by ignoring community leaders, civil societies and local governments. These are to be undercut and undermined by talking to the people directly. That populalist political approach had made the election of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo possible in 2016, to the surprise of those who regarded themselves political weights.
So far, no local politicians are equipped to deal with the N&N Concept on populalist agenda.This is how electioneering and political campaigns are conducted in democratic one-person one-vote elections. But, the Heads of Federal Member States are doing politics in the conventional Somali ways: clan politics. That is why they are losing battles one after the other. Puntland President Deni had underestimated Khayre’s recent visit to Galkayo by sending junior politicians to deal with the issue. The gathering yesterday in a North Galkayo stadium tells the rest of the story. But, the war has not been won or lost yet, and the final casualties are unpredictable.

ON JUBALAND

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July 7, 2019
There are major issues and minor ones in Jubaland political stand-off and confrontation between FGS and Ahmed Madoobe Administration.
Let us talk about minor issues first. Among them includes, but not limited to, that:
  1. There is a big difference between Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) and Jubaland issues. This is where people err in debating and deliberating on Jubaland.
  2. People also ignore facts: There are many forms of Mr. Ahmed Madoobe. There is Madoobe of the Union of Islamic Courts with their mixture of Al-Shabab and other extremists.
  3. There is Madoobe of Ras Gambooni Brigade
  4. There is Madoobe as Ethiopian Prisoner and Ethiopia supporting Madoobe suddenly.
  5. There is Madoobe of the Free Parliament in Asmara, Eritrea, and there are other forms of Ahmed Madoobe.
As the Head of the Jubaland Administration, he had ignored and marginalized the residents of the Kismayo in favor of new comers that compose of , among others, residents of the Southwest State. Unfortunately, supporters of Ahmed Madoobe now in his confrontation with FGS are those denied of their residence rights, the Harti, upon his election last time.
Let us take up the major issues now, which are of more concern:
  1. Farmaajo-Khayre Administration is engaged in destabilizing Jubaland in its campaign to impose its will on Federal Member States in violation of the Federal Constitution, and thus, unravel the Federal Systen, paving the way to restoration of Central Unitary Authorities hailing from One City-state of Mogadishu by:
  2. Eliminating Ahmed Madoobe as an obstacle to the policies of current FGS leaders.
  3. Dislodging Kenyan Defence Forces KDF as part of AMISOM from Kismayo, whom they see them as defence and political shelter for Ahmed Madoobe.
  4. Paving the way for the establishment of new Jubaland Alliance and reversing the influx of Absame into Lower Jubaland Region
  5. All above measures boil down to FGS leaders’ attempt to seize power in Jubaland State as part of wider game plan to return the country to tyranny and highly centralized unitary government in Mogadishu.
Recommendations.
  1. Resist FGS unconstitutional interference in Jubaland, while not defending Ahmed Madoobe at all.
  2. Have credible and competent candidates for the forthcoming Jubaland Election.

ONCE UPON A TIME IN DEFENCE OF JUBALAND

Toronto, May 20, 2013 – “Face-saving starts with: 1. Appreciation and recognition of reality on the ground today in Jubbaland without artificially painting or treating the election of “Ahmed Madoobe” as disputed or unconstitutional. 2. Removal of any doubt about the letter and spirit of the Somali Federal Provisional Constitution regarding the formation of federal states without any further double talk and wishy-washy ramblings or reluctance to adhere to the relevant articles. 3. Acknowledgement of wrongs of the Civil War and serious commitment to addressing them and restoring trust in central authorities and current leadership. Otherwise, any good intentions of the international community to help out Somalia one last time would be in vain and that could be the beginning of the end of Somalia as we knew it. Make no mistake!”

Ismail Warsame Blog