Category: Haaf

N&N 2020 GENERAL ELECTION PLAYBOOK IS WELL UNDERWAY NOW

July 11, 2018
N&N Concept Note on Federal Election 2020 boils down to removing the carpet under the feet of leaders of the Federal Member States by-passing them to convey N&N message directly to the general public, especially to the youth. So far, the plan is working well.
The remaining hold-outs among the Heads of the Federal Member States are feeling the N&N political pressure now to either give in or get eliminated. The battle grounds are now shifting to Puntland and Jubaland. In the case of Puntland, there is still a political space for Puntland President Deni to maneuver as he was elected a half year ago for a 5-year Puntland mandate. Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland is now fighting for survival. He is deeply entangled with vicious confrontation with leaders of N&N. How this would end up is everybody’s wild guess.
Prime Minister Khayre’s visit to Galmudugh and Northern Galkayo in an uncoordinated fashion with the local authorities tells volumes of information on how this political game will play out in the next few months and beyond. The plan has risk factors that could spark off renewable of the civil war. It is a daring political gamble. But, it seems to have the overwhelming support of youth in the country. And this is the very reason why N&N leaders are reluctant to approach politics as usual by ignoring community leaders, civil societies and local governments. These are to be undercut and undermined by talking to the people directly. That populalist political approach had made the election of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo possible in 2016, to the surprise of those who regarded themselves political weights.
So far, no local politicians are equipped to deal with the N&N Concept on populalist agenda.This is how electioneering and political campaigns are conducted in democratic one-person one-vote elections. But, the Heads of Federal Member States are doing politics in the conventional Somali ways: clan politics. That is why they are losing battles one after the other. Puntland President Deni had underestimated Khayre’s recent visit to Galkayo by sending junior politicians to deal with the issue. The gathering yesterday in a North Galkayo stadium tells the rest of the story. But, the war has not been won or lost yet, and the final casualties are unpredictable.

SOMALIA: FEDERALISM MORTALLY WOUNDED, HAS PUNTLAND LOST BATTLE OR WAR?

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FEDERALISM IN SOMALIA AT CROSS-ROADS

When former Federal President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had the battle to block the formation of Jubaland Federal Member State in May 15, 2013, it was a turning positive point for proponents of the Federal system in Somalia. It was, however, clarion call to anti-federalist forces in Mogadishu political elites. For federalists, Jubaland victory made them complacent and got disarmed. For anti-federalist, it was a wake-call to change course and find out options to fight back. For them, two options were on the table:

1. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Co. had to accept reluctantly the reality on the ground and speed up the process of creating Hawiye federal member states in Central Somalia, Galmudugh and Hirshabelle, to counter the political weight of the established Darood federal member states in Puntlland and Jubaland, on the top of the NFD counties in Kenya and Somali Regional State in Ethiopia. There was panic in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political camp. They had to hurry up.

2. However, the other more effective faction of anti-federalist forces had to change tact by bringing in an electable non-Hawiye opponent of federalism. They put their bet on former prime minister of FGS, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. They struck gold as Farmaajo surprisingly got elected FGS President in 2016 by heavily corrupt members of the Federal Parliament Lower Chamber, while ignoring the non-existent then Upper Chamber.

In turn, Farmaajo had to find a political novice to install him as his loyal prime minister. He had made an unconventional choice of picking up the most unexpected candidate in the eyes of Hiraab political elite and Mogadishu establishment, Hassan Ali Khayre, an outsider and an in-law from Farmaajo wife’s Murursade clan, a non-Hiraab minority Hawiye sub-clan, who would be loyal only to Farmaajo because of Khayre’s vulnerability due to lack of power-base in Mogadishu.

Now, the process of fighting back to undermine the Federal Constitution and unravel federalism had had to begin. The new anti-federalist policies got started with suppressing all promotions and press support for federalism; delaying the Review Process of the incomplete Federal Constitution, creating tension and conflicts in all Federal Member States, and commissioning an unprecedented worldwide social media campaign of Nabad & Nolool (N&N) to mislead and misinform Somali youth.

The success of FGS anti-Federal agenda, in the short period of only two years, is stunning with elimination of most Heads of Federal Member States that begun with removal of Abdullahi Osoble of Hirshabelle, and went on to eliminate Sharif Hassan Adan of Southwest State; Abdiweli Gaas of Puntland and recently Ahmed Du’aale Haaf of Galmudugh.

The challenges to overcome now are Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntlland State and Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) of Jubaland. Both Heads of Regional states have certain vulnerabilities to exploit by Farmaajo anti-federalist team. Both didn’t come to power by popular choice. Both have unpredictable and unreliable members of local parliaments. Both avoid surrounding themselves with the states’ political heavy weights as advisors and consultants. Both have serious political rivals being bankrolled by the FGS leaders. FGS subversive campaigns to destabilize them politically is reportedly well under-way now. For President Deni, it is probably through the Puntland House of Representatives by means of impeachment and non-confidence vote to oust him. For Madoobe, they will probably try Sharif Hassan removal style: Buy him out. If that wouldn’t work, then, use Gaas removal style: support his political rivals with massive financial backing to get rid of him in the forthcoming Jubaland Election in August this year. They could succeed.

For the benefit of those, who do not understand the political dynamics of FGS in Mogadishu, misleading reports and misinformation coming from Somalia abound as to who is in charge in the FGS. Most say that it is Prime Minister Khayre’s one man-show and President Farmaajo is a by-stander.

Nothing further from the truth. According to informed and reliable sources. Khayre is the weakest of all past TFG/FGS Prime Minsters. That is because he has no strong power-base in Mogadishu. Nothing happens in FGS without Farmajo’s permission or knowledge. It is Farmajo, who is dictating Khayre. It is Farmajo, who is anti-Federal and anti-regional administrations. It is Farmajo, who is protecting Khayre. Khayre couldn’t survive a parliament motion against him if it weren’t Farmajo. The entire Hiraab constituency is up against Khayre. Khayre has more parliament MPs support from Darood than from Hawiye. This is Khayre’s strength as FGS Prime Minister because of Farmaajo. It is, actually, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who is pushing hard for unitary central government in gross violation of the Federal Constitution, and, by the way, that is the main reason as to why the FGS doesn’t want to complete the Review of the Constitution to make easier for them to ignore or violate it while it is still in never-ending process. If Farmaajo would get elected in 2020, there would not be a federal constitution. Talk about nominal semi-autonomous regions and central government tyranny.

Their policy strategy is to destroy the Federal Member States, or install their puppet regional leaders in the meantime, hold sham general elections to return to power and establish a strong one city-state with rubber-stamp institutions.

Now, it is a clarion call to forces of Federalism to fight back as it is a wake-call to the residents of Puntland State to contemplate about their destiny in a new Somalia whose leaders are trying to restore One City-state rule.

https://ismailwarsame.blog

@ismailwarsame

GALMUDUGH CATCHING UP BELATEDLY

GAROWE, May 18, 2019 – People of Central Somalia origin, Galmudugh in particular, are impatient and seem to be in hurry to catch up with the rest of the country in completing and re-inforceing the constitutional process of building power decentralization (federalism). Better late than never, the English saying goes to reflect on the belated general feeling of sisters and brothers in Galmudugh, finally and rightly recognizing that history will not judge them favorably by resisting this already defacto system of Somali governance. Federalism in the country is not imposed, but made defacto following earth-scorch clan and communal violence in the name of civil war having its roots in dictatorship and abuse of power.

Galmudugh problem, however, is improvisation of state building. Doing it right first was not in their priorities from the start, violating the wisdom of a Somali saying, “From the beginning learn your ABCs of things correctly”

For more information and understanding of the issue on doing it right from the start, let me share with you an article I authored and posted in WardheerNews around the time when Galmudug was being refurbished and rushed on in the town of Cadaado with a forceful involvement of former President of the Somali Federal Government, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud:

OPINION

THE CREATION OF A REGIONAL STATE IN SOMALIA’S CONTEXT MADE SIMPLE

March 21, 2013

By Ismail. H. Warsame

There are a few simple steps along the way to establish a regional state in Somali context. These are critical steps to follow for a successful conclusion of the creation of a federal state:

1. Respectful of the Federal Constitution, two or more regions must have common political, security and economic interests and must have potential to operate as a cohesive political block as well as a viable and sustainable economic unit.

2. Regions must have overwhelming grass-root support for the idea of creating their own state. These include all levels of their masses, and traditional elders at forefront.

3. A fully representative people’s congress must be held initially as Consultative Conference to resolve and agree upon:

a) Endorsement of the very idea and need for the creation of the state

b) Selection of Constitutional Committee for drafting the state’s constitution

c) Selection of Preparatory Committee for the final Constitutional Congress

d) Selection of Chairing Committee of the Constitutional Congress

e) Selection of Fund-raising and Finance Committee

f) Selection of Security Committee

g) Selection of logistics and Accommodation Committee

h) Selection of the venue of the Constitutional Congress

i) Allocation of delegates to each participating region to the Constitutional Congress for the subsequent division among clans in each region along the traditional sub-clan proportionality.

j) Creation of an atmosphere of voluntarism and regional political activism to spark off enthusiasm for urgent people’s action and personal contributions.

k) Avoidance of confrontation with central authorities in the attempt to create the state.

4. Convention of Constitutional Congress to pass the draft Constitution.

5. Setting up an independent electoral or supervisory Committee with the formulation of criteria for their mandate.

6. Election of the Chief Executive Officers (e.g. President, Vice President) if they are to be elected by the Congress.

7. Selection of members of the Legislative Council (local parliament) by the participating regions either directly by the residents or in an indirect democratic fashion by their constituencies through traditional customs to be double-checked by the Electoral Committee; Election of the Speaker and his Assistants, and immediately the Chief Executive Officers by the newly constituted Assembly if they are to be elected that way.

8. Start of regional power-sharing negotiations to form the Cabinet.

Critical mistakes to avoid:

1. When forming a regional state, never start from power-sharing approach. This is a non-starter and a recipe for failure.

2. Avoid prematurely announcing candidates for leadership and never allow anyone to put their candidacy forward until the final execution of points 1-5 above. This is the main source of division within the participants and sure factor to fail the whole idea of successfully concluding the efforts.

3. Denounce anyone seeking special clan, regional privileges or status.

3. Suppress any hints of intimidation against Congress participants. Free will of people and expression must reign supreme. Everyone must feel comfortable and feel secure and safe in the Congressional environment. Everyone must feel ownership of the state to be created.

All successful Somali regional conferences including those of Puntland, Somaliland and TFG conform to the above simple steps. All those failed violated them by starting first with power-sharing and leadership competitions.

Ismail Haji Warsame
WardheerNews Contributor

E-mail: ismailwarsame@gmail.com

Twitter: @ismailwarsame