Category: federalism

ANOTHER LOOK AT SOMALI FEDERALISM

Garowe, May 14, 2023

By ISMAIL HAJI WARSAME

ON FEDERALISM

When political opponents say that Puntland State is the mother of federalism, people of Puntland think that they are being praised and recognized for the State’s tremendous sacrifices in men, material and minds in founding the 2nd Somali Republic, the current Federal Republic of Somalia (First Somali Republic existed from 1960-1991). In fact, what protagonists are saying here is that Puntland alone came up with unpractical federal concept that was not applicable nationwide. Sadly also, the history of who had spear-headed in salvaging Somalia from total disintegration and its disappearance from the world map, following the Civil War, had been hidden and buried in the same way that the history of self-government, sultanates and kingdoms that existed in Puntland regions long before European colonial powers came to Somalia, were buried to be never told in Somalia’s political and history narratives. We were made to believe that the history of the struggle of the people of Somalia to be free and own their state and government started from Derwish leader Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan. That was how Siyad Barre was formulating Somali history for twenty-one years in power with iron fist.

Now, let us come back to our today’s theme: Federalism

Is Somalia’s federalism de facto or de jure? Was federalism a part of public debate in Somalia from 1960-1991? Other than the rise of SSDF as opposition movement against military regime and a small elements of intellectuals and former politicians from Digil&Mirifle before independence (inugu federaal fadnee?), was there any public awareness of desire for federalism? Was federalism imposed on Somali people by laws of government? Could someone do something to prevent it from happening at that time? Can anyone do something today to eliminate it from Somalia’s political discourse, body politic and laws of the land? What are the political consequences or the legacy of the Civil War? Isn’t the failure of the Somali State resulting in de facto “federalism” a part of Somali political narrative and outcome of the Civil War? Are the root causes of the Civil War still addressed? What guarantees in Somalia’s political and security situation today do we have to ensure that yesterday’s political blunders wouldn’t be repeated?

It is noteworthy to remind Somali people that

  1. Federalism and its variety of confederalism finds relevance in Somalia’s traditional clan society where most clans are more bonded by federation than by blood lineages. The infamous 4.5 clans are confederate clans. Most clans in Somalia are social constructs for strengthening them numerically for common protection. Nowadays, Somali Clan confederates are lately used for securing political edge in power-sharing rivalry.
  2. Still some shamelessly propagate that Somalia’s Federalism was derived or adopted from ethnic Ethiopian federalism. Knowing historical facts about national efforts of re-instating Somali State after its failure in January 1991, and having participated in most national reconciliation process, I confirm that Ethiopian involvement in the drafting of Somalia’s governance holds no water. Some Somalia’s constituencies were demanding federal system long before independence. It is a fallacy to interpret Somali federalism that way. It is just another anti-federalist tactics to unravel the modest gains of the Federal System and discredit its supporters. Unfortunately, many gullible Somali citizens bought this dangerous falsehood.
  3. Another misinformation is that Puntland State is part of Southern Somalia. That is the same as the notion that SSC is part of Somaliland now, given colonial history. Puntland State is located geographically in Northeast and parts of Northwest regions of Somalia and colonial borders had lost relevance after the Act of Union of 1960 forming the Somali Republic.
  4. Finally, Mogadishu and Hargheisa have same misleading policy on Puntland State: They propagate that Puntland is part of Southern Somalia and SCC is part of Somaliland. This is neither true nor acceptable to us.

The situation on the Somalia’s “Debt Relief” is worse than you think. Interest payments or “Debt Servicing” on Somalia’s Sovereign Debt is paid by the people of Somalia, including those in Puntland State. It is paid from portions of bilateral and international donations. The Central Government divides these donations into two portions, one going to debt Somalia’s servicing, and the other portion is further subdivided, small amounts of which are thrown to FMS in the same way you throw pieces of meat or fish at lunch table to the cats, and the bulk of it is burned in Mogadishu and used for non-stop international travels of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. People of Puntland are among those paying these big-ticket expenditures.

Make no mistake. “Fiscal Federalism” you hear about these days is being negotiated and conducted under these abnormal situation. Don’t expect any fair distribution of resources any time soon, if this course of action is maintained.

Legislations and institution-building are runaway power abuses and corruption. Best examples are recent laws of NISA, Petroleum, and Fishery, just to name a few. Who passes these laws in Federal Parliament, by the way? Yes, by the federal parliament representatives of Puntland State, among others, because if they don’t conform to the political dictations of Southern leaders, they wouldn’t be safe in Mogadishu. 

Now, tell me how Puntland State could work with Mogadishu Regime, which respects no agreements and laws of the land with total disregard to the governance system most Somalis agreed upon? This gives you an idea on what is happening between FGS and Puntland State.

 People say let us complete the Federal Constitution. More questions arise here:

 The question is whose constitution is it? 

  1. Is it a national constitution or a constitution of South Central Somalia? 
  2. Where does Somaliland stand here? 
  3. Are we talking about negotiations between South and North Somalia again, after a constitution for South Central Somalia is passed with potential Puntland State unwise consent?
  4. Where do Puntland’s SSC Regions stand here? 
  5. What about one and half region state in Central Somalia supposed to be an “Interim administration”, but now having the same rights and status as Puntland State? 
  6. What about other mini-states whose headquarters are located in or operating from Mogadishu, challenging Puntland State at Madasha Qaranka, and Mogadishu Regime is using them against Puntland State’s legitimate concerns? 
  7. In conclusion, would Puntland State past MOUs and agreements with the Central Government since 2009 need ratification by Puntland constitutional bodies?

I leave you with these questions to ponder.

 However, I warn you that the struggle between pros and cons of federalism will go on until one side wins the game. Keep fighting.

CONCLUSIONS

To reiterate, federalism is a de facto or force majeure that happened in Somalia following the vicious Civil War in the country. Puntland Vision from 1998 and TFG of Somalia Charter recognized this historical and socio-economic facts on the ground in Somalia.

Is the notion that federalism couldn’t function or isn’t feasible in Somalia holds truth? Could you improve this debate further to argue that this claim wasn’t consistent with historical facts and reality on the ground?

Since TFG of Somalia, the country had four presidential mandates: Sharif Ahmed, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) 1.0, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and HSM 2.0? Tell me one of them, who had spent time making federalism work in Somalia? If you want to build a house, and do not move to realize the dream, would it be built by itself? These past and present Somali federal leaders were either undermining or trying to dismantle it. In other words, they were not converts of federalism. That is why opponents of federalism were quick to denounce federalism as incompatible for Somali culture and it couldn’t function well in Somalia. This is a fallacy. Federalism is a reality on the ground in Somalia. Puntland State is a living example that federalism does work in Somalia.

However, there is a vicious cycle in Federal Member States too. Federalism meant to decentralize authority or power to Elected District councils (remember federal government is three levels: FGS, FMS and District Councils).  This never happened before Puntland State. That is good news for federalism in Somalia.

But federalism has many forms. There are asymmetrical, confederal and other forms of federalism. However, it takes two to a tango (single person doesn’t play dhaanto by himself/herself). Whom to talk to on this issue, if Mogadishu governments aren’t ready or interested. They are also against democratization and will of the people. There is one political position of Somaliland Administration I used to admire in my past political experience: “Whom to talk to in Southern Somalia?” This situation still holds true to Mogadishu political situation. Are there political space and environment in Mogadishu today to talk about fiscal federalism, common security architecture and federal legislations in parliament not sensitive to the concerns of FMS?

THE DEBATE IS ON CONFEDERALISM NOW, NOT FEDERALISM ANYMORE.

October 9, 2019

Those, who are still talking about Federalism in Somalia are way behind the times. Federalism is history here, at least in the minds of Somali thinkers. That is because N&N Government managers have been interpreting federalism to mean nothing more than a dictatorship by a city-state in the same way former Somali leaders ruled, until the fall of the Military Regime in 1991.

The debate is now raging on, on how to implement a fair and reliable governance formula consistent with Somali values as confederal system.

Confederation is a term understandable to most Somalis as confederate clans existed throughout Somali history. Raxanweyn or digil&Mirifle, Isaaq, Cawl-Yahan of Ogaden etc, are all confederate clans respectively, not blood-related. They are purely political confederates – even Hawiye is a confederate of clans.

Now, we are debating on macro-confederates at state level based on Somali traditional history and anthropology to officially formulate confederalism as the most suitable system of government.

As a starting point, the Provisional Federal Constitution must be revised to reflect on that reality with constitutionally defined powers for the shared central authority and confederal member states.

The future prime ministers of the shared central authority of Somalia should come from confederal member states on rotational order at consultations of confederal member states and the shared Somali central authority. The President of the shared central authority should be elected by all confederal member states in a national electoral process through one-person-one-vote. Choosing one of the leaders of confederal member states includes in this arrangement. Example, Dubai Ruler, Sheikh Mohammed, is the Prime Minister of UAE.

Confederalism is a native idea whose time and yours have come at right moment. Seize it.

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PUNTLAND: ABSENCE OF COHERENT STATE POLICY


October 3, 2019


Could anybody pinpoint the policy objectives of Puntland Government on the way forward locally and nationally? If you can do, share these policy goals with us.


I don’t see a Policy Paper on what Puntland State is doing or intends to do for all its residents to know and work towards achieving these objectives involving socio-economic targets; formulating State policy towards the rogue policies of the Federal Government; General Election 2020/21; its relationships and coordination with other Federal Member States; working with international partners and organizations; security and stability of Puntland State, among other issues of vital importance.


Puntland State seems unable or reluctant to formulate adequately a coherent policy on her political differences with the Mogadishu Regime, thus creating a confusion in the minds of Puntland people as from whom they take the political lead in going forward with regards to Somali national and local affairs. It looks that the State is in permanent political limbo situation. This is isn’t acceptable as it is dangerous – citizens not knowing where their country is heading to, how to help the State and what to hope for.

 
President Said Abdullahi Deni and his administration officials should know that the status quo is no longer acceptable, and that Puntland couldn’t stay put to wait for something happening to her, instead of Puntland State leading something to happen and shaping its future and that of Somalia.


There should be a White Paper on Puntland’s political objectives and actions to back them up. This should come out upon studies and thoughtful deliberations to produce serious policy alternatives on pressing issues of the State and Somalia. There should be mass communication strategy to inform Puntland general public and that of the people of Somalia and international community. Get the confusion and dilemmas out of the way. Puntland shouldn’t be playing Proverbial Ostrich.

“Finally, it is highly recommendable to recall all Puntland representatives, members of Federal Parliament and the Senate to come home for urgent consultations as a first step to work out a new Puntland strategic policy”


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GOING ROGUE AGAIN

October 2, 2019

Going rogue again to do more harm to the consolidation of a united 2nd Republic of Somalia.

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WHO COULD BE SUPPORTERS OF N&N  ELECTION 2020/21 IN PUNTLAND?

September 29, 2019


If an election were held in Puntland today, whom do you think would vote in support of N&N?
It isn’t a wild guess work, but a predictable scenario based on keen observation on the mood, utterings and attitudes of sections of the Puntland population.

  1. Historically, there were portions of the population in the State, who are uncomfortable with the numerical superiority of the Majertain sub-clan groupings. These would vote N&N at expense of Puntland interest.
  2. There are young and politically naive social media fans, who know neither the history of Puntland struggle nor what N&N stands for.
  3. There are people, who fell victim to Dr. Ali Khalif Galayr’s type of hate speech directed at Puntland  State.

Consequently, all these groups are turning out to be anti-federalists and anti-self-government in their campaign to discredit the formation of federal member states in favor of a strong N&N led central government, even dictatorship from Mogadishu.

Historically, this political culture of hatred towards certain sections of Northeastern population had been cultivated and developed by the former military regime of Siyaad Barre. President Farmaajo is a product and student of that repressive regime. This is Farmaajo’s basis for purging Puntlanders from Federal Public Service, exactly in the same way Siyaad Barre did then. That is why Puntland students are being punished for belonging to the wrong Federal Member State. He isn’t learning from recent Somali political history. As he got chance and a shot at Somali politics, he didn’t know enough persons of Puntland origin. As TFG Prime Minister, he was compelled to tap someone seemingly from Northeastern Regions of Somalia. He placed his bet on Abdiweli Mohamed Ali (Gaas), his fellow resident of US Buffalo NY State, the only one person he knew from Majertain, and also Gaas was former resident of Dusa-Mareeb in Galgaduud Region of Central Somalia, where Farmaajo sub-clan family hails from. President Farmaajo now thinks that even Abdiweli Gaas had betrayed him as the former had lost the Somali Prime Ministership to the latter.


Given the situational analysis of Puntland, any administration in Puntland ought to study and pay attention to these societal contradictions, as it should address any real or perceived grivances harbored by certain sections of Puntland residents, including Somali IDPs.


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ON THE ISSUE OF CONFEDERALISM

September 25, 2019

Warsame Digital Media WDM welcomes debate, interviews and comments. You don’t have to be necessarily a proponent or opponent of this governing concept of Confederalism – you may ask questions for clarification or submit comments as your way to contribute ideas to the on-going debate.

Have your say.

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IS PUNTLAND TOO EASY TO GET DESTABILIZED WITH QADARI RIYALS?

July 21, 2019

Many people thought that PUNTLAND is too hard a nut to crack against the use of the left-overs of Qadari Riyals from Mogadishu. Successful transfer of money laundered through N&N activists under the cover of various development projects in several Puntland cities is slowly taking hold.

The quick pace of this FGS money laundering is too fast for President Deni Administration to catch up. It is just reacting to the events, while badly failing to warn Xawilaadaha (Money Transfer Bureaus) about the crime and penalties of FGS money laundering operations in Puntland.

Money could be a tool of war, and in the FGS case, it is a destabilizing campaign. At moment, Galkayo and Bosaso, the most heavily populated towns of Puntland are FGS targets in an attempt to shake up the foundations of Puntland. Will that work out?

That depends on how the Deni Government would be able to win the hearts and minds of the youth of Puntland, the 70% of the population. It would require Puntland President to often come out of the fence of Villa Puntland and talk to the people, for if he doesn’t do that, someone else would do it for him, and it will not be humorous in the end.

In the light of the recent FGS flagrant meddling in the internal affairs of State’s jurisdictions under the Federal Constitution, the entire political, cultural and security machineries of Puntland should get into high gear to confront any destabilizing factors, including the chronic absence of youth guidance and orientation.

Let us be clear of what Puntland State stands for, where it came from, at what costs and why?

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(Photo credit: HIRNEWS)

UNDERSTAND N&N GOVERNMENT POLITICS AND POLICIES, DON’T BANDWAGON

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July 17, 2019

N&N Government supporters, could you answer these basic questions:

1. Have you ever heard of N&N Government speaking about or promoting the very law of the land, the Federal Constitution, upon which the three branches of government are based?

2. Under which Somali constitution President Farmaajo was elected in 2016?

3. What happens if the leaders of a state and government do not respect and adhere to the laws of the country?

4. Why does the Constitutional Upper Chamber of Somali Parliament has difficulties to function in Mogadishu? Who is holding it back and why?

5. What is happening to the Review of the Federal Constitution that being held hostage by N&N Government?

6. In your mind, how do you interpret President Farmaajo’s many statements declaring that he wanted to build a strong Central Government?

7. Would there be a strong democratic federal Somali government without strong people and viable federal member states?

8. And finally, why are they not promoting the Federalism System, the only system of governance that all warring clans of Somalia could agree to in 2004, following the Civil War?

By answering these basic questions, you would wise up to the meaning and objectives of N/N. In the end, you would be a supporter of either the idea of restoring a strong Mogadishu City-state, or a blind follower of a N&N bandwagon? If you are supporting N/N, but you aren’t either of the above, then you are a critical thinker and you will do well.

Alernatively, if you would prefer tyranny, dictatorship and suppression of your basic human rights, I wish you well.

In conclusion, I would give you heads-up about life and politics in Mogadishu:

Elders who had returned to Mogadishu to support N&N Government almost all have left Mogadishu for these reasons:

a) N&N Government is pursuing wrong-headed policies through unconstitutional means.

b) Hawiye political and financial elites don’t want a government at any level, let alone a functioning one. They think they are better off that way amid anarchy of stateless and predatory business enterprises.

c) Al-Shabab and other extremist entities couldn’t operate freely in Mogadishu without having support and protection from the masses there.

In this regard, a lot of youth express support for N&N Government, not knowing the danger of policies they are bandwagonning now.

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FOR STUDENTS OF SOMALI HISTORY

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July 16, 2019

Do you know the three phases of Somalia’s Military Government in the period of 1969 – 1991?

ANSWERS:

1. Military-Administrative Government. In this phase, Somalia had made significant progress that captured the attention of the people of Somalia and the world.

2. One-man rule Government, an absolute dictatorship. In this phase, things went wrong in Somalia, and turned to the worst.

3. Client Government. In this phase, Dictatorship gave way to the rule of corrupt elite created by the Regime and hailing from all clans of Somalia. This was the end of Somalia as we knew it, that led to the status of “failed State”

The last phase (3) is now reflected in the current Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States. If things go on course as they are now, what you expect for is obvious.

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N&N 2020 GENERAL ELECTION PLAYBOOK IS WELL UNDERWAY NOW

July 11, 2018
N&N Concept Note on Federal Election 2020 boils down to removing the carpet under the feet of leaders of the Federal Member States by-passing them to convey N&N message directly to the general public, especially to the youth. So far, the plan is working well.
The remaining hold-outs among the Heads of the Federal Member States are feeling the N&N political pressure now to either give in or get eliminated. The battle grounds are now shifting to Puntland and Jubaland. In the case of Puntland, there is still a political space for Puntland President Deni to maneuver as he was elected a half year ago for a 5-year Puntland mandate. Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland is now fighting for survival. He is deeply entangled with vicious confrontation with leaders of N&N. How this would end up is everybody’s wild guess.
Prime Minister Khayre’s visit to Galmudugh and Northern Galkayo in an uncoordinated fashion with the local authorities tells volumes of information on how this political game will play out in the next few months and beyond. The plan has risk factors that could spark off renewable of the civil war. It is a daring political gamble. But, it seems to have the overwhelming support of youth in the country. And this is the very reason why N&N leaders are reluctant to approach politics as usual by ignoring community leaders, civil societies and local governments. These are to be undercut and undermined by talking to the people directly. That populalist political approach had made the election of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo possible in 2016, to the surprise of those who regarded themselves political weights.
So far, no local politicians are equipped to deal with the N&N Concept on populalist agenda.This is how electioneering and political campaigns are conducted in democratic one-person one-vote elections. But, the Heads of Federal Member States are doing politics in the conventional Somali ways: clan politics. That is why they are losing battles one after the other. Puntland President Deni had underestimated Khayre’s recent visit to Galkayo by sending junior politicians to deal with the issue. The gathering yesterday in a North Galkayo stadium tells the rest of the story. But, the war has not been won or lost yet, and the final casualties are unpredictable.

FIRST VISIT TO PUNTLAND BY THE NEW UN SECRETARY-GENERAL REP TO SOMALIA, Mr JAMES SWAN, JULY 8, 2019

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ON JUBALAND

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July 7, 2019
There are major issues and minor ones in Jubaland political stand-off and confrontation between FGS and Ahmed Madoobe Administration.
Let us talk about minor issues first. Among them includes, but not limited to, that:
  1. There is a big difference between Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) and Jubaland issues. This is where people err in debating and deliberating on Jubaland.
  2. People also ignore facts: There are many forms of Mr. Ahmed Madoobe. There is Madoobe of the Union of Islamic Courts with their mixture of Al-Shabab and other extremists.
  3. There is Madoobe of Ras Gambooni Brigade
  4. There is Madoobe as Ethiopian Prisoner and Ethiopia supporting Madoobe suddenly.
  5. There is Madoobe of the Free Parliament in Asmara, Eritrea, and there are other forms of Ahmed Madoobe.
As the Head of the Jubaland Administration, he had ignored and marginalized the residents of the Kismayo in favor of new comers that compose of , among others, residents of the Southwest State. Unfortunately, supporters of Ahmed Madoobe now in his confrontation with FGS are those denied of their residence rights, the Harti, upon his election last time.
Let us take up the major issues now, which are of more concern:
  1. Farmaajo-Khayre Administration is engaged in destabilizing Jubaland in its campaign to impose its will on Federal Member States in violation of the Federal Constitution, and thus, unravel the Federal Systen, paving the way to restoration of Central Unitary Authorities hailing from One City-state of Mogadishu by:
  2. Eliminating Ahmed Madoobe as an obstacle to the policies of current FGS leaders.
  3. Dislodging Kenyan Defence Forces KDF as part of AMISOM from Kismayo, whom they see them as defence and political shelter for Ahmed Madoobe.
  4. Paving the way for the establishment of new Jubaland Alliance and reversing the influx of Absame into Lower Jubaland Region
  5. All above measures boil down to FGS leaders’ attempt to seize power in Jubaland State as part of wider game plan to return the country to tyranny and highly centralized unitary government in Mogadishu.
Recommendations.
  1. Resist FGS unconstitutional interference in Jubaland, while not defending Ahmed Madoobe at all.
  2. Have credible and competent candidates for the forthcoming Jubaland Election.

PRESIDENT DENI’S DILEMMA AND PUNTLAND CONCERNS

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July 7, 2019
President Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland was an outsider of Puntland politics. He is not well versed in the history of Puntland governance and its struggle during the Regime of Siyaad Barre. He is not deeply rooted in its vision for New Somalia. In ideology, he is hailing from religious groupping of Al-Islah orientation, whose members are International Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafists. By tradition, Somali religious sects aren’t well-known for paying much attention to modern statecraft beyond opposing secularism, while lacking any inclusive world outlook and experience in modern world interconnectivity. That is because politics and political power are off-limits to religious leaders in the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, in particular. However, they are trained in getting involved in politics through religious Dawa in other countries outside the sources of Wahabi and other religious sects persuasions. Issues of secular government and any forms of governance, including federalism and division of power between states and regions etc is not included in their religious narratives or vision for national objectives.For them, it is a foreign concept and non-Islamic imitations or pretendence.
Being an outsider and involved lately in Federal politics, Mr.Deni happened to find himself as the State President of Puntland State. What made his situation even worse is the fact that he had inherited a mess left by his predecessor, Gaas, in Puntland, and therefore, had to climb up a stiff learning curve. Political dynamics are highly fluid in Somalia, waiting for no one to catch up. It is a quick-paced environment, expecting not only equally quick interventions, but also vision and planning as well.
Now, Puntland State, created out of a long struggle against One City-state domination, dictatorship repression and clan cleansing in a vicious civil war that many people may be right in arguing that it was genocide, has serious concerns about how things were developing politically lately in Somalia. People of Puntland are deeply troubled by the state of union of Somali affairs at moment, what has been happening to Somali National Accords of Federal Constitution, Federalism, Power -sharing, Resources- sharing, all the solemn declarations that Somalis had agreed to to end the civil war and revive the failed state of Somalia. There is a political dilemma and anxiety setting in the State. Puntlanders are seriously worried now for their own future and the gains of their long historical struggle against tyranny and backwardness.
Let us not only hope that the New Administration of Puntland is upto the job, but that we should also monitor performance and keep watchful eyes on the rapid political developments in Somalia.

SOMALIA: WONDERING GENERALITIES AND NO MEANINGFUL SPECIFICS

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July 7, 2019
EDITORIAL
Politics and policies are boring when there are no benchmarks, no priorities and no defined policy objectives to achieve. When government actions are attended aimlessly with no standards, no monitoring mechanisms and no performance evaluation, it would amount to wondering in the dark, boring and dull existence for those required to discharge public responsibilities.
To complete the process of re-instating the failed state of Somalia, both the Transitional Charter and Federal Provisional Constitution had clearly defined the benchmarks to achieve, among them, the review of the Federal Constitution, establishment of Constitutional Commissions and timeframes to realize these constitutional and policy objectives.
Instead, you have a static condition, political paralysis and artificial gridlocks that had turned everybody cynical and hopeless among the general public.
There are reasons for this happening. When a selected Leader, MPs and the Cabinet came through vote rigging, vote buying, influence peddling and all inherent corruption manipulations to be where they are today, their next most concerns are how to recuperate the financial losses (investment), and return on investment, getting ready for the next vote-buying projects at expiration of their stints.
If the general public is too ignorant, uninformed and had lost faith in themselves that they could make any difference in their unenviable existence, not to mention about their inabilities and lack of community awareness to come together for collective political actions, then it becomes remote to do much in societies like Somalia.
This is what is wrong in Somalia. How long will it take for this society to get informed to act together on common purposes? Long time, you bet. The Chinese saying, however, has it that a 1000 steps journey starts with the first step.
So, let us start stepping up.
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SOMALIA: FEDERALISM MORTALLY WOUNDED, HAS PUNTLAND LOST BATTLE OR WAR?

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FEDERALISM IN SOMALIA AT CROSS-ROADS

When former Federal President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had the battle to block the formation of Jubaland Federal Member State in May 15, 2013, it was a turning positive point for proponents of the Federal system in Somalia. It was, however, clarion call to anti-federalist forces in Mogadishu political elites. For federalists, Jubaland victory made them complacent and got disarmed. For anti-federalist, it was a wake-call to change course and find out options to fight back. For them, two options were on the table:

1. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Co. had to accept reluctantly the reality on the ground and speed up the process of creating Hawiye federal member states in Central Somalia, Galmudugh and Hirshabelle, to counter the political weight of the established Darood federal member states in Puntlland and Jubaland, on the top of the NFD counties in Kenya and Somali Regional State in Ethiopia. There was panic in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political camp. They had to hurry up.

2. However, the other more effective faction of anti-federalist forces had to change tact by bringing in an electable non-Hawiye opponent of federalism. They put their bet on former prime minister of FGS, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. They struck gold as Farmaajo surprisingly got elected FGS President in 2016 by heavily corrupt members of the Federal Parliament Lower Chamber, while ignoring the non-existent then Upper Chamber.

In turn, Farmaajo had to find a political novice to install him as his loyal prime minister. He had made an unconventional choice of picking up the most unexpected candidate in the eyes of Hiraab political elite and Mogadishu establishment, Hassan Ali Khayre, an outsider and an in-law from Farmaajo wife’s Murursade clan, a non-Hiraab minority Hawiye sub-clan, who would be loyal only to Farmaajo because of Khayre’s vulnerability due to lack of power-base in Mogadishu.

Now, the process of fighting back to undermine the Federal Constitution and unravel federalism had had to begin. The new anti-federalist policies got started with suppressing all promotions and press support for federalism; delaying the Review Process of the incomplete Federal Constitution, creating tension and conflicts in all Federal Member States, and commissioning an unprecedented worldwide social media campaign of Nabad & Nolool (N&N) to mislead and misinform Somali youth.

The success of FGS anti-Federal agenda, in the short period of only two years, is stunning with elimination of most Heads of Federal Member States that begun with removal of Abdullahi Osoble of Hirshabelle, and went on to eliminate Sharif Hassan Adan of Southwest State; Abdiweli Gaas of Puntland and recently Ahmed Du’aale Haaf of Galmudugh.

The challenges to overcome now are Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntlland State and Ahmed Mohamed Islaam (Ahmed Madoobe) of Jubaland. Both Heads of Regional states have certain vulnerabilities to exploit by Farmaajo anti-federalist team. Both didn’t come to power by popular choice. Both have unpredictable and unreliable members of local parliaments. Both avoid surrounding themselves with the states’ political heavy weights as advisors and consultants. Both have serious political rivals being bankrolled by the FGS leaders. FGS subversive campaigns to destabilize them politically is reportedly well under-way now. For President Deni, it is probably through the Puntland House of Representatives by means of impeachment and non-confidence vote to oust him. For Madoobe, they will probably try Sharif Hassan removal style: Buy him out. If that wouldn’t work, then, use Gaas removal style: support his political rivals with massive financial backing to get rid of him in the forthcoming Jubaland Election in August this year. They could succeed.

For the benefit of those, who do not understand the political dynamics of FGS in Mogadishu, misleading reports and misinformation coming from Somalia abound as to who is in charge in the FGS. Most say that it is Prime Minister Khayre’s one man-show and President Farmaajo is a by-stander.

Nothing further from the truth. According to informed and reliable sources. Khayre is the weakest of all past TFG/FGS Prime Minsters. That is because he has no strong power-base in Mogadishu. Nothing happens in FGS without Farmajo’s permission or knowledge. It is Farmajo, who is dictating Khayre. It is Farmajo, who is anti-Federal and anti-regional administrations. It is Farmajo, who is protecting Khayre. Khayre couldn’t survive a parliament motion against him if it weren’t Farmajo. The entire Hiraab constituency is up against Khayre. Khayre has more parliament MPs support from Darood than from Hawiye. This is Khayre’s strength as FGS Prime Minister because of Farmaajo. It is, actually, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who is pushing hard for unitary central government in gross violation of the Federal Constitution, and, by the way, that is the main reason as to why the FGS doesn’t want to complete the Review of the Constitution to make easier for them to ignore or violate it while it is still in never-ending process. If Farmaajo would get elected in 2020, there would not be a federal constitution. Talk about nominal semi-autonomous regions and central government tyranny.

Their policy strategy is to destroy the Federal Member States, or install their puppet regional leaders in the meantime, hold sham general elections to return to power and establish a strong one city-state with rubber-stamp institutions.

Now, it is a clarion call to forces of Federalism to fight back as it is a wake-call to the residents of Puntland State to contemplate about their destiny in a new Somalia whose leaders are trying to restore One City-state rule.

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