There comes a moment in every failing presidency when reality knocks—loud, relentless, and unforgiving. For Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, that moment has already passed. Yet, astonishingly, he still doesn’t get it.
The clock is no longer ticking—it is screaming.
His mandate is collapsing in real time, with no credible constitutional settlement, no political consensus, and no roadmap out of the abyss. What remains is a presidency in denial, clinging to power with the illusion of control while the ground beneath it fractures by the day.
A Presidency Without a Plan
The fundamental duty of any leader at the twilight of power is to secure transition, not manufacture crisis. Yet this regime has done the opposite. It has squandered time, political capital, and legitimacy chasing unilateral constitutional fantasies that no serious stakeholder accepts.
The result?
A constitutional vacuum.
A political vacuum.
A legitimacy vacuum.
This is not governance. This is drift—dangerous, reckless drift toward a cliff edge.
Disarray at Home, Silence Abroad
Even his own constituencies are in disarray. The coalition that once sustained the presidency is now fractured, suspicious, and quietly disengaging. Loyalty has been replaced with calculation. Support has turned into silent distancing.
International partners—those who once provided diplomatic cover and financial oxygen—are no longer intervening. They are watching. Measuring. Waiting.
They understand something the Villa Somalia circle refuses to admit: this regime is running out of time—and options.
And more importantly, they are adjusting.
Budget support—the lifeline of this administration—is no longer guaranteed. It is conditional, cautious, and increasingly constrained. Donors do not bankroll uncertainty indefinitely. They hedge against collapse.
And collapse, in this case, is no longer hypothetical.
The Dangerous Temptation of Escalation
But here lies the most alarming development.
Instead of de-escalation, instead of reconciliation, instead of political realism—the regime appears to be contemplating confrontation.
Puntland. Jubaland.
Two federal member states already alienated by unilateralism and constitutional overreach.
To destabilize them now, at the dying hour of a presidency, is not strategy—it is desperation masquerading as strength.
It is the oldest mistake in politics: when power slips, manufacture a crisis to reclaim it.
But Somalia is not a chessboard. It is a fragile federation held together by consensus, not coercion. Any attempt to impose control through destabilization risks igniting forces that no one—least of all a weakened presidency—can contain.
A Federation in Suspended Animation
Elsewhere, the federation is holding its breath.
Southwest is restive—its political loyalty uncertain, its patience wearing thin.
Galmudug and Hirshabelle are suspended in limbo—uncertain of their place, their future, or their alignment in an increasingly polarized political landscape.
This is not a functioning federal system.
This is a system in suspended animation, waiting for either resolution—or rupture.
The Final Miscalculation
History is merciless to leaders who fail to read the moment.
This is that moment.
The path forward is obvious to everyone except those in the echo chamber of power:
de-escalate, negotiate, restore constitutional consensus, and prepare an orderly transition.
But instead, the regime flirts with the most dangerous miscalculation of all—believing it still holds the leverage it lost months ago.
Power without legitimacy is illusion.
Authority without consensus is fiction.
And time without strategy is defeat.
Conclusion: The Clock Has Run Out
This is no longer about politics. It is about the survival of the Somali state as a coherent entity.
A presidency that cannot unify, cannot negotiate, and cannot transition peacefully becomes part of the problem—not the solution.
The tragedy is not that the end is near.
The tragedy is that it was avoidable.
And yet, even now, at the twilight of his regime, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud still doesn’t get it.
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