To do that, you have to take into account his advantages and disadvantages in getting re-elected.
Let us take first his advantages:
- Divisions or disunity among his Hawiye opposition presidential challengers in the absence of apparent presidential candidates from other clans, especially Darod.
- Financial advantage with Qatari funding in dark money.
- His Al-shabab style recruitment of Somali youth potentially getting elected to Somali forthcoming parliament.
- Loyalty of three leaders of Galmudugh, Hirshabelle and Southwest to his re-election bid.
- His demogogic populist personality among gullible portions of the Somali population.
- Resistance from the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland.
- His bad relationships with representatives and diplomatic missions of the Western countries working with Somalia.
- His belated negative exposure to the Somali public of his deceptive ways and lack of transparency in running public affairs.
- His sinophobic attitude towards certain Somali clans.
- His dictatorial tendency in regards to Somalia’s governance and anti-federal policies.
- His disregard for the rule of law and the constitution.
- His most recent misdemeanors and love to cling to power unlawfully frighten many people.
- His close relationships with what is publicly perceived as an arch enemy of Somalia: Ethiopia.
- Finally, the uphill battle of breaking away from Somali Political Doctrine that states that no Somali leader can be elected to a 2nd term in office.
Each of these advantages and disadvantages is volatile, dynamic and unpredictable. It is clear, though, that Farmajo’s political weaknesses are more than his strengths.
Based on the above assessment, Farmajo will mostly likely exit from Somali politics, at least on the short-term.
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