By Abdihafid Yassin Hussein
External impact
It is clear that somali politics is governed by clan interests (internal) and international community interests (external) which is represented by USA and its strategic (European+ Zionists) and tactical (Turkey) allies. Balancing the differences between these external powers which are competing for influence is now posing a great challenge to already clan troubled somali politics .Thanks to Turkish positive gains in Somalia after it was left alone and considered as a cancer in the horn of Africa by the very international community that is in full gear now. The two power offices now seem to be reserved for USA and its strategic European allies. The new PM, like his predecessor, worked with INGO run by Scandinavians which have huge oil interests in Somalia. That said, Turkey will need to intervene strongly (military and diplomacy) to protect its strategic alliance with Somalia. I believe that former PM was fired not only because of his incompatible internal politics, but also his failure to palance between external influences. European know that better than any one else and that is why, presumably, Farmajo was pressured to appoint another Scandinavian trained PM but was left optional which clan he should hail from.
Internal Impact
The fact that newly appointed Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Rooble, is publicly unknown figure is sure a concern for some political analysts, but does that make much sense? well, let us not forget that President Farmaajo has previously appointed Kheyre which was successfull despite being unkown figure in politics. It is true he doesn’t have much time but the timing itself is much more important than its duration. Will he differ? Time will tell, but first, let us critical analyse it.
The new PM is from “Habargidir clan” which is known for its fierceness in the battle in the civil war. However, much has changed, since then, that finally brought the clan, not only be marginalized from politics by his own hirab tribesmen (Mudulood) but also expelled from the capital to its original stronghold. It all happened because of bad leadership of its own clan. Now, it is new downing for the clan to change the course of its way towards making its positive foot prints in somali politics. Having said that, the new PM has huge challenge, not only from his own clan base which sees him as a henchman for the president, but also from Hassan Sheikh (Damujadid turned mudulood politician). These mudulood headed opposition group will try hard to derail the roadmap of the new PM.
If recent close consultations of habargidir clan with the president indicates us any thing, the new PM will convince mudulood clan and seize the opportunity to make impact greater even than his predecessors.The PM designate will not only ensure the election is successfully conducted freely and fairly under his watch but also disrupt and neutralise the dominant mudulood opposition alliences. Damujadid sees itself as Hawiye saviour while it sees NN as Darod saviour, while, in fact, it grabbed the power, marginalized others and used habargidir against its own neighbour in mudug region. Will Damujadid win their dirt game again by enticing clan slogans and triger communal fighting through their henchmen in the capital and Puntland state, particularly, Galkaio. Finally, the new PM’s internal political success will depend on how he will form the new cabinet minsters and how that plays out in the capital, Mugdisho and his regional stronghold, Galkaio. Any slight miscalculation will cost him dearly, not only in his short term job as PM but also any future matchup between the two head of states.
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