By Abdihafid Yassin Hussein

External impact

It is clear that somali politics is governed by clan interests (internal) and international community interests (external) which is represented by USA and its strategic (European+ Zionists) and tactical (Turkey) allies. Balancing the differences between these external powers which are competing for influence is now posing a great challenge to already clan troubled somali politics .Thanks to Turkish positive gains in Somalia after it was left alone and considered as a cancer in the horn of Africa by the very international community that is in full gear now. The two power offices now seem to be reserved for USA and its strategic European allies. The new PM, like his predecessor, worked with INGO run by Scandinavians which have huge oil interests in Somalia. That said, Turkey will need to intervene strongly (military and diplomacy) to protect its strategic alliance with Somalia. I believe that former PM was fired not only because of his incompatible internal politics, but also his failure to palance between external influences. European know that better than any one else and that is why, presumably, Farmajo was pressured to appoint another Scandinavian trained PM but was left optional which clan he should hail from.

Internal Impact

The fact that newly appointed Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Rooble, is publicly unknown figure is sure a concern for some political analysts, but does that make much sense? well, let us not forget that President Farmaajo has previously appointed Kheyre which was successfull despite being unkown figure in politics. It is true he doesn’t have much time but the timing itself is much more important than its duration. Will he differ? Time will tell, but first, let us critical analyse it.
The new PM is from “Habargidir clan” which is known for its fierceness in the battle in the civil war. However, much has changed, since then, that finally brought the clan, not only be marginalized from politics by his own hirab tribesmen (Mudulood) but also expelled from the capital to its original stronghold. It all happened because of bad leadership of its own clan. Now, it is new downing for the clan to change the course of its way towards making its positive foot prints in somali politics. Having said that, the new PM has huge challenge, not only from his own clan base which sees him as a henchman for the president, but also from Hassan Sheikh (Damujadid turned mudulood politician). These mudulood headed opposition group will try hard to derail the roadmap of the new PM.
If recent close consultations of habargidir clan with the president indicates us any thing, the new PM will convince mudulood clan and seize the opportunity to make impact greater even than his predecessors.The PM designate will not only ensure the election is successfully conducted freely and fairly under his watch but also disrupt and neutralise the dominant mudulood opposition alliences. Damujadid sees itself as Hawiye saviour while it sees NN as Darod saviour, while, in fact, it grabbed the power, marginalized others and used habargidir against its own neighbour in mudug region. Will Damujadid win their dirt game again by enticing clan slogans and triger communal fighting through their henchmen in the capital and Puntland state, particularly, Galkaio. Finally, the new PM’s internal political success will depend on how he will form the new cabinet minsters and how that plays out in the capital, Mugdisho and his regional stronghold, Galkaio. Any slight miscalculation will cost him dearly, not only in his short term job as PM but also any future matchup between the two head of states.

This article doesn’t necessarily reflect on the editorial policy of this blog; it is exclusively limited to the views of its author.

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The newly appointed Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Rooble, has neither the time nor the experience to make any difference in Somalia’s situation. If he accepts the offer and gets confirmed, he will not go beyond on-the-job training exercise during this short period of time before the general election – unable to have the chance to be his own man, let alone to bring new blood to the Cabinet. He will heavily rely on President Farmaajo for directions and advice; a situation that makes the later the real Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister designate will be lucky to earn national recognition if the election is successfully conducted freely and fairly under his watch, an unlikely scenario under epidemic corruption in the country.

By appointing a publicly unknown figure as Prime Minister, President Farmaajo has successfully secured one of his priority goals: Grabbing the executive powers from the Cabinet; the 2nd one being getting re-elected. Let us watch whether his 2nd priority defies the Somali Political Doctrine that stipulates ” No 2nd Chance for a president”

The New appointment, however, is a slap in the face of those suffering from “GOOFKA Syndrome” because of their proximity to the Capital City, Mogadishu.

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Postscript.

Since this article was posted, there have been unconfirmed social media stories playing out that the Prime Minister Designate has not been vetted adequately with rumors of his past mistakes. However, reliable sources have indicated to this blog WĎM that those rumours are baseless and perhaps a mistaken identity.

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Garowe, September 3, 2020
A group of us, mostly friends, colleagues and more, came to chat recently on Somali and Puntland political issues, unplanned in a typical Somali round-table ad hoc fashion. The informal discussions were going to all directions and corners of important issues, when suddenly one Said asked the question: “Why do good people turn bad once in power?” It was an open Question to all. None of us, however, had examined whether the premises of the question were sound, to start with. None answered the question satisfactorily, for a politician is everything but good. None of us also remembered the famous quote “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely”. And none of us had acknowledged the fact that a politician in power isn’t necessarily a leader or vice versa.

Other questions raised at the table included: “Who could tell what Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni would bring to the table in Mogadishu talks between FGS, FMSs and IC? Would he be able to articulate Puntland case, not to mention about the bigger picture of moving Somalia forward?” The consensus was that President Deni’s style of leadership is that He Alone was “All-Knowing” and he sees no need for institutional or expert support; that he was one-man show aided by teenages and body-guards for his daily governmental  operations.

None among us was sure what President Said Deni want out of current Mogadishu talks – to forget about the expectations of the people of Puntland, and raising their political awareness of the issues at stake.

One gentleman among us was impressed by the lately inclusive politics of Jubaland President, Ahmed Madoobe, in utilizing all Jubaland human resources available, including his presidential rivals, experienced politicians inside and outside his cabinet and subject matter experts, while President Deni was acting like lone gunman in consequential interactions with FGS, FMSs and international community.

We can only hope for good news for  Puntland from our “All-Knowing” President, Said Abdullahi Deni.

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The issue of protocol reception for the heads of FMS by the Federal Government officials was raised during TFG Administration, at least, by those of us, who were available, on the sidelines, to offer an advice to the Government.

While we were at it, the President of Puntland, General Adde, flew to Mogadishu to meet with Abdullahi Yusuf and Mohamed Ali Geedi then. We suggested that a number of TFG ministers receive the President of Puntland. Mohamed Dheere was the Governor-Mayor at the time. He went to the airport to receive the General on his own.

In this case, the FGS obviously considers Banadir Governor, Omar Flish, to be the Counter-Part to a President of a FMS, since Banadir Region was a party to FGS-FMSs negotiations. In this context, I think there is nothing inappropriate in today’s Mogadishu receptions. It could be a bit better upon goodwill by the FGS.

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Garowe, August 24, 2020

Barely one month has elapsed since Puntland political associations got registered legally here. However, one already notices the beginning of diversity of political views in the State. It no longer looks like one-party government, where everybody has to conform to the system of One-man Rule known here as “Madax-Ka-Nool”.

But, the people of Puntland had been deeply impacted by the dictates of two decades of one-party legacy and intolerance to opposition that had been instituted and taken deep roots in the minds of people. Don’t be surprised if you see Puntland political figures and parties attacking one another publicly, instead of welcoming unconventional views and diversity of political opinions. 

Welcome to Puntland New Era of Democratization. At start, it will be as painful as it would be rewarding and worth fighting for.

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Postscript:
In the first picture, they are from left: Abdullahi Dhere, Abdirahman Aideed Dabdable, Abdullahi Yusuf, Dr Hassan Ali Mire and Abdukadir Isbarije.

In the 2nd photo, they are from left: Abdirahman Ashkir Gurac (Bolonyo), a Libyan military expert, Abdirizak Omar Haji, Abdullahi Haji Elmi, Abdullahi Yusuf and a picture that look like Dahir Mire Jibril, who is still the only alive.