As you continue to observe and study governance options for traditional nomadic societies like Somalia, Yemen, Gulf states, Albania and many countries of Africa, you discover that peoples’ aspirations for better lives in good governments are becoming delusional and unrealistic dreams. That is because transforming a tribal and nomadic community into a modern state, experiencing a modicum of law and order is like producing a communist state out of feudalism, by-passing capitalism.
In the case of Somalia, it is increasingly becoming a choice between a loose confederalism or centralized dictatorship. To establish the required highly centralized authority, you need immense economic and human resources for suppression.
To do that in Somalia, you need to exploit the rich natural resources like oil, gas, water, minerals, among other potential wealth of this country. That is why the next escalation of conflict and civil strive would come from the “curse of oil and gas”. Whoever could control this, would control Somalia.
The only option left for by-passing the next mayhem in Somalia is to explore now other governance systems that would guarantee peaceful development and coexistence, confederalism being the most suitable here, in my humble opinion.
Finally, if European experience has any historical lessons to learn from on governance and lasting peace after two devastating world wars and ugly history of internal civil strives in each, there has to be democratization of all countries in the Horn of Africa. They say, “Two democracies don’t fight”. Today it is hard to contemplate two Western European countries starting a war upon each other. Somalia and its neighborhood in the Horn must work out and develop common values of democracy to stay stable and peaceful.
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