Forget the framing of Somalia “risking” fragmentation. It is already happening. Three federal member states have suspended relations with Mogadishu since 2024. A breakaway region got its first-ever sovereign recognition in December. The president is governing on a legally contested term extension. This isn’t a warning sign — it’s the current state of play.
What actually happened: Puntland pulled recognition of the federal government back in March 2024.[14] Jubaland followed in November 2024 after Mogadishu slapped a treason warrant on its president.[14] Then, on March 4–5, 2026, Parliament rammed through a permanent constitution — ending the 2012 provisional framework, extending presidential terms from four years to five, locking in a one-person-one-vote system — without Puntland, Jubaland, or the opposition coalition on board.[10],[8] President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s original mandate expired May 15, 2026. The new amendments retroactively gave him another year anyway.[9]
The third state nobody’s talking about: South West State suspended ties with Mogadishu too, on March 17, 2026 — accusing the federal government of arming local militias and pushing unconstitutional centralization. The Somali Future Council (now Puntland + Jubaland + the Salvation Forum) backed the move within hours.[11] It didn’t last: the Somali National Army rolled in and installed a federal loyalist by March 30.[11] That’s the tell. Mogadishu is now willing to use troops, not just politics, to reverse a state’s defection — which means Puntland and Jubaland aren’t watching a hypothetical, they’re watching a preview.
Somaliland got there first. On December 26, 2025, Israel recognized Somaliland as a sovereign, independent state — the first UN member ever to do so, after three decades of Somaliland governing itself with no international recognition at all.[1],[2] Netanyahu called it consistent with the Abraham Accords; Somaliland’s president said they’d seek to join.[1] Almost everyone else objected: 14 of 15 UN Security Council members pushed back at an emergency session (the US was the lone holdout),[3],[4],[5] and the African Union, the OIC, the Arab League, and IGAD all separately condemned it.[5],[6] None of that stopped Israel’s foreign minister from visiting Hargeisa a week and a half later.[7]
Why the objections don’t matter as much as they sound: universal condemnation from every relevant regional body didn’t reverse anything. That’s the actual lesson for Puntland and Jubaland — international disapproval is not a check on this kind of move, it’s just noise that accompanies it.
Who else has skin in the game: Turkey’s the biggest external player by far — Camp TURKSOM, the Gorgor special forces it trained, a naval presence, and now F-16s based in Mogadishu since early 2026.[13] That buildup is tied to Mohamud personally, not to federal institutions broadly. Gulf states run their own relationships with Puntland’s and Somaliland’s ports directly. Add Israel’s new interest in Somaliland — including quiet talk of it as a relocation site for Gazans — and you’ve got a country where outside powers are increasingly betting on factions, not on Mogadishu.
Where this goes: Two realistic outcomes remain. Either a negotiated confederation — foreign policy, currency, and defense held centrally, everything else devolved to regions that are already running themselves — or continued piecemeal fragmentation, state by state, with Mogadishu using force where it still can (South West State) and losing ground where it can’t (Puntland, Jubaland, Somaliland). A clean single breakup isn’t really on the table. This messier version already is.
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Sources
Reuters, “Israel recognises Somaliland, Somalia’s breakaway region, as independent state,” December 26, 2025.
CNN, “Somaliland: Israel becomes first country to formally recognize region as independent state,” December 26, 2025.
Times of Israel, “UN Security Council to convene emergency meeting on Israel’s Somaliland recognition,” December 28, 2025.
France 24, “UN ambassadors condemn Israel’s recognition of Somaliland,” December 30, 2025.
Peoples Dispatch, “Global outcry against Israel’s recognition of Somaliland,” January 2, 2026.
AllAfrica, “African Union Condemns Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland,” January 8, 2026.
PassBlue, “Israeli Actions in Africa Complicate Somalia’s Presidency of the UN Security Council,” January 7, 2026.
ConstitutionNet, “From Provisional to Permanent Constitution? Assessing the End of Somalia’s Constitutional Review Process.”
ICNL, Somalia Civic Freedom Monitor, updated 2026.
Eu SEE / Hivos, “Jubaland Opposition to Federal Constitutional Process Threatens Inclusive Civic Participation,” March 10, 2026.
Horn Review, “Meles Zenawi’s Prescience: The Case for SWS, Puntland and Jubaland and the Domino Effect,” March 26, 2026.
African Security Analysis, “Monthly Forecast: Somalia,” June 24, 2026.
Middle East Forum, “Turkey Holds Somalia’s Constitution Hostage,” June 4, 2026.
Wikipedia, “Constitutional Crisis in Somalia,” and “Israel–Somaliland relations.”