BRIEFING ON THE POLITICO/SECURITY SITUATION IN MOGADISHU

There is calm before the storm. What is happening in Mogadishu now is re-orentation of forces and weighing of strategic/political options by Farmajo, on one side, and the Hawiye opposition forces, on the other.

Farmajo is planning his next step. He had started with bringing more troops to Mogadishu, mainly from Gedo in Jubaland and Galgadud (DusaMareb) in Galmudugh. He had sought alternative sources of funding for his regime, mainly from Gulf States of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Turkey, among others, as Western aid to Somalia is about to dry up. He is engaged in counter-balancing his Hawiye opposition through divisions in their rank and file in seeking help from some former politicians like Hussein Aidid, Ali Mohamed Gedi, Mohamed Sheikh Gacmadheere and bunch of others. He is weighing his opinions to use the Lower House of Parliament for further political intrigues, but Somalis and world community expect them to rescind their recent controversial and unlawful act of April 12, 2021, extending Farmajo’s mandate to two more years. Farmajo sees power is slipping out of his grip. His so-called Somali National Army, SNA, is fragmenting alone sub-clan lines. Now, it is just a matter of time before he is pushed aside.

On the opposition side, there are mobilization campaigns of Hawiye political and armed militia to depose Farmajo under the pretext of holding elections. A series of meetings between Prime Minister Roble and Council of Presidential Candidates, CPC, are continually taking place in Mogadishu to seek consensus on how to handle Farmajo. They seem to have persuaded Hawiye leaders of Galmudugh and Hirshabelle, Qoor Qoor and Guudlaawe, respectively, to the side of the opposition, though reluctantly. Prime Minister Roble is using his Hawiye clan card to challenge Farmajo and to demonstrate that he is a relevant figure in Mogadishu political power plays that couldn’t be easily deposed by the Parliament like they did with former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire. The opposition is also monitoring the activities of Farmajo’s henchmen, such as commanders of military, police and security forces.

Meanwhile, in their meetings, Hawiye opposition leaders were not talking about the two elephants in the room – Puntland and Jubaland.

Things are moving in Mogadishu in a fast pace. Stay tuned.

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