These are serious obstacles to national unity. In the end, this constituency could be responsible for the breakup of Somalia”

​0ctober 1, 2019

How come Somalis aren’t asking the most obvious and key question to all current predicaments of Somalia? Doesn’t it look like a weird behaviour of a medical doctor not interested in diagnosing the sickness of his/her patients suffer from, while prescribing medical remedies?

Have you ever asked yourself about this vitally important question of national significance that could make or break Somalia? Don’t you think that this is the over-arching problem, its solution of which is the panacea to resolve all problems?

You guessed, it is a national reconciliation without which Somalia could never rise up again. Mark my words here. There is a vicious civil war, bordering on genocide, and not being followed by national reconciliation efforts.

But, who is refusing to swallow that powerful medicine in the vital interests of Somalia? Think hard about whom?

There are obvious forces opposing a Somali National Reconciliation Process.

Here they are:

(A) Hawiye/Banadir leaders

Most Somali presidential contesters hail from Hawiye/Banadir Region because of the proximity to the Capital City and using it as their stronghold. 1. Their political constituency prefers to keep the status quo for economic and political reasons. 2. National Reconciliation is a complex process requiring (a) long term, huge national efforts, sustainable policies and programs (b) Material compensation and return of misappropriated public and private properties (c) Repentance for wrong-doing (d) Fair administration of justice and regulations to prevent such crimes never happening again (e) Special Status for the Capital City of Mogadishu as State property, never to be claimed on tribal basis again. Any Hawiye leader wouldn’t accept these preconditions in exchange for national reconciliation. These are serious obstacles to national unity. In the end, this constituency could be responsible for the breakup of Somalia.

(B) Non-Hawiye leaders

Any non-Hawiye leader in Mogadishu has little or no say in Banadir affairs, and for reasons of political self-preservation, he/she doesn’t want to rock the boat for the duration of their short stints in office.

(C) Predatory Banadir Business community

They are the real economic, security and political power, not only in Mogadishu, but also in entire Somalia, Northwest Regions included. They don’t want to give up these powers through national reconciliation and strong public institutions.

(D) Islamists

Various Islamist factions grew prosperous, influential and independent in the absence of Somali government. They had thrived in the power vacuum. Most aren’t interested in Government regulations and functioning public institutions to avoid supervision over their activities. Islamists have been focusing on religious fundamentalism, education without subjects of Somalia’s context and history, and economic sectors.

(E) Humanitarian and Aid Industry 

These organisations prefer conditions in Somalia that help their aid and humanitarian appeal to be effective. Problems of hunger, diseases and insecurity is, perhaps, all they need to be relevant. That is not because they wish ill-will for Somalia, but that is the nature of their employment and professional careers. Good governance and strong public institutions are bad news for them.

(F) Federal Members States

Most leaders of FMS have no national vision as they are also struggling for their own political survival from threats of their selfish colleagues at national level. As incompetent as most may appear, they are also busy counting the passing days of their term in office. 

(G) Somali Pseudo-Intellectuals

These are superficial intellectuals, who have never been accused of engaging in deep societal studies, do more harm than good in confusing the general public. They also mislead the international community by distorting realities in Somalia. They are part of the problem in dividing the masses.

These are the forces in the way of national reconciliation, based on observations, recent history and Mogadishu political conundrum.

Have your say.



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