Day: July 25, 2022

ECONOMIST: HELLO FROM LONDON


The war in Ukraine is entering its sixth month. Is there any way to assess the likely prospects for the rest of the year? Russia and Ukraine agreed a deal, in recent days, to allow the export of grain from Ukraine—a tentatively encouraging sign. But within hours Russian missiles hit Odessa, prompting Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, to accuse Russia of “barbarism”. It may still be in Russia’s interest to appear to allow the food to flow, even if in practice it does not. After all, its foreign minister pays a visit to Africa, starting on July 24th. That trip will go more smoothly if Russia is not blamed for high food prices. Nonetheless, any sort of rapprochement should be welcomed, along with Turkey’s efforts to play as a peacebroker.

There is evidence that Russia is dug in for the long haul. A gruesome war of attrition could drag on until winter, or indeed beyond. It is hard to be sure how many casualties—both deaths and injuries—have already been inflicted on soldiers and civilians in the war. See our latest article on the subject. Undoubtedly, the deaths must be counted in the tens of thousands. Russia alone has probably seen 15,000 soldiers killed. Injuries, many of them devastating, will be far higher yet. Vladimir Putin launched this unprovoked war of choice, back in February, without explaining his purpose to the Russian people. Indeed he still pretends this is a “special military operation”, not a war. Mr Putin is responsible for large-scale ruin and suffering, yet he can’t spell out what he is trying to achieve.

If that isn’t a gloomy enough prospect, this week is likely to bring some more economic reasons to worry. We have just published our latest assessment of the state of the world economy—asking whether recession is looming all over the place. One question is whether America itself will officially fall into one. One definition of a downturn, often cited by journalists, is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. On that basis, America is probably destined for recession when new GDP figures are released later in the week. Yet there are other ways to decide if one is under way, for example by looking at personal incomes and unemployment rates. On these scores, America’s economy looks rosier.

As mentioned, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister will spend five days in Africa this week, shoring up diplomatic support (relevant at the UN General Assembly for example) and preparing for a summit later in the year, in Addis Ababa, in Ethiopia. His plane may yet cross vapour trails with that of France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, who is visiting three African countries himself. Mr Macron will pay most attention to questions of terrorism and migration.

Wrapping up the diplomatic jet-setting calendar, keep an eye on Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, who will be in China for two days. Why does that matter for the rest of us? It’s significant, I think, for what it says about the state of mind of Xi Jinping, China’s leader. Put aside the Winter Olympics, back in February, when foreign leaders including Mr Putin showed up in Beijing. Other than that, Mr Xi has not welcomed anyone to China since 2020, when strict covid-19 rules were imposed. At some point he needs to find ways to open up China again, not least to get its economy running.

Last, let me flag another of our reading lists. Have you ever wondered why some countries are able to escape poverty and improve the lives of their people, while others linger much longer without developing. We’ve pulled together a very short introduction to an essential list of texts that help to puzzle out why that is. I’d love to hear if you agree with our selection..

Please continue to write to me at economisttoday@economist.com, and, on Twitter, you’re most welcome to follow me.

Adam Roberts
Digital

[Courtesy: The Econimist]

EGYPT HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY A FACTOR IN SOMALIA’S FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Ethiopia has been left out in Somali President’s Blitzkrieg diplomatic offensive in Somalia’s neighbors. It is not yet known whether Ethiopia was reluctant to receive him, given the security instability in that country. However, there is no disagreement on the cooling off of relations with Hassan Sh. Mohamud”s presidency, knowing his predecessor, Farmajo, enjoyed close ties with previous Ethiopian leadership. Mohamud had had warm relations with TPLF Regime and even attended TPLF’s festivities in Makele, the provincial capital of Tigray, during the reign of TPLF. TPLF leadership were among the first to congratulate Mohamud on his presidential victory for a 2nd term this time. Mohamud lost no time to appoint Hamse Abdi Barre considered an Ethiopian because Ethiopia assumes he hails from Ogaden Region under Ethiopian administration, a historically disputed territory mainly inhabited by ethnic Somalis. Already, there is an escalation of violence and armed confrontation between Alshabab fighters and Ethiopian forces at long stretch of border between the two countries, with likely possibility of Ethiopian incursion into Somalia in hot pursuit.

Nile waters is synonymous to the existence of Egypt itself as they believe that Egypt cannot be without Nile River flowing to the desert and oasis of that country. Because of this natural and geographical fact, strained relations between Somalia and Ethiopia are in the vital interest of Egypt, making Somalia an strategic asset for Egypt in the same way Israel is for the United States in the Middle East. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may be playing with fire in paying an early visit to Egypt, while he still doesn’t have his foreign policy team in place. It is too early to do that before weighing Somalia’s foreign policy options. Mohamud’s current visit to Egypt doesn’t even look like a calculated risk. Here, we see a lone president without a Cabinet sailing in troubled waters. Somali observers worry that the President may risk diplomatic blunders even before his government took office.

[This article was updated since posting.]

Postscript: Press report following Mohamud’s visit to Egypt: https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/07/25/egypt-and-somalia-condemn-ethiopia-over-nile-dam-dispute/

PUNTLAND IS ROCKING

BREAKING NEWS

There are five things that make the residents of Puntland State troubled now:

  1. Severe drought, following failure of two consecutive seasons;
  2. Unprecedented inflation. Skyrocketing prices beyond the reach of ordinary people;
  3. Impending violence and armed confrontation to follow current military standoff in the Port-city of Bosaso. Keen observators notice slow preparations for war to resolve leadership contest between Puntland State leadership, particularly the President, on one side, and the revolt and mutiny led by PSF/Boqor Burhan of Bari Region, on the other. Each side sees no alternative to fighting it out, an unprecedented development, given the fact that Puntland regions were famous for traditional mechanism for conflict resolution. This is caused by the fact that neither side recognizes the other for its leadership role. Hence, many residents see no way out of Bosaso standoff, with increased likelihood of violence, displacement and great harm to Puntland peace and Stability ;
  4. Stalled municipal elections, following the win of opposition parties in the poll in all three pilot elections in the districts of Uffayn, Qardho and Eyl in a back-to-back setting with the Federal Elections. This has been further exacerbated by the defeat of Puntland President, Said Abdullahi Deni, in the Federal Presidential Race in Mogadishu. Stalled elections in Puntland is another dangerous layer of instability.
  5. Titled traditional elders have been steadily losing their moral authority as they melted into political sides at all levels of Somali administrations – thus the demise of traditional SELF-GOVERNMENT known for this part of Somalia.

Puntland House of Representatives is now showing signs of life to challenge the Executive Branch after two decades of slumber. Observers say it is too little too late. Nevertheless, it is never too late to save what remains of Puntland. Good luck!