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Effective and successful oil and gas exploration, exploitation and transparent management of the industry could happen under two conditions only.

  1. Existence of a strong government or governments under the federal arrangement, which can guarantee law and order issues in areas under oil firms consideration.
  2. The invasion of that country by oil companies with the help and military protection of their nations of orgin.

Somalia would be unable to meet the first condition, and perhaps, no anytime soon.

The 2nd condition is unacceptable, provided that you don’t want to take AMISOM into account as prelude to a pre-planned invasion to extract oil.

You can, therefore, derive from these conditions that:

  1. Oil exploration in Somalia at this junction in the country’s history is PRECARIOUS and spells out renewed communal violence and more instability.
  2. Oil companies would be dealing with a weak government under very difficult circumstances of recovering from a failed state status. Somalia is not yet out of the woods and in a position to insure win-win business contracts.
  3. The fresh maritime dispute between Somalia and Kenya needs to be settled first.

Oil exploration in this country could be a curse coming up., hence, recommends to put off oil contracts at the moment, and instead look at other potential areas of national wealth-creation such as farming and food production, while focusing on institution-building and national peace and reconciliation process.

Warsame Digital Media

Author: Warsame Digital Media WDM

About the blogger: This blog is associated with the former Chief of Staff in Puntland State Presidency, 1998-2005. He also worked with the UN and World Bank Joint Secretariat for Somalia’s Re-construction and Development Program (RDP), 2005-2006, as a Zonal Technical Coordinator for Puntland and later as National Aid Technical Coordinator with the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and European Union. He is now an independent political analyst and commentator on current issues and occasionally gives historical perspective on modern Somalia’s politics. He lives and works in Toronto, Canada. He can be reached at:

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