Effective and successful oil and gas exploration, exploitation and transparent management of the industry could happen under two conditions only.
- Existence of a strong government or governments under the federal arrangement, which can guarantee law and order issues in areas under oil firms consideration.
- The invasion of that country by oil companies with the help and military protection of their nations of orgin.
Somalia would be unable to meet the first condition, and perhaps, no anytime soon.
The 2nd condition is unacceptable, provided that you don’t want to take AMISOM into account as prelude to a pre-planned invasion to extract oil.
You can, therefore, derive from these conditions that:
- Oil exploration in Somalia at this junction in the country’s history is PRECARIOUS and spells out renewed communal violence and more instability.
- Oil companies would be dealing with a weak government under very difficult circumstances of recovering from a failed state status. Somalia is not yet out of the woods and in a position to insure win-win business contracts.
- The fresh maritime dispute between Somalia and Kenya needs to be settled first.
Oil exploration in this country could be a curse coming up. https://ismailwarsame.blog, hence, recommends to put off oil contracts at the moment, and instead look at other potential areas of national wealth-creation such as farming and food production, while focusing on institution-building and national peace and reconciliation process.