Tag: Rooble

GARO WUXUU SALKA KU HAYO ISQABADKA FARMAAJO IYO ROOBLE

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THE TWO RISING STARS IN SOMALIA’S PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: DENI vs ROOBLE

None has declared candidacy yet. Each one of the two is currently in a position of power and influence. Each has the resources at his disposal to push his presidential ambition. Each enjoys frontrunner status from their respective constituencies, according to public opinion – Deni among the Daroods, Rooble among the Hawiye. Each hails from one of neighboring Federal Member States of Puntland and Galmudugh. Regionally, they have common interests geopolitically, economically and in security cooperation. They could be complementary as president and prime minister of Somalia. They have federal ambitions at a time when Galkayo is no longer a divided city along clan lines. They seem, therefore, to realize their political chance has arrived.

While this is, at this moment, a pure speculation, there is a potential that both would run in this federal election.

One would ask what about other possible candidates, especially from Hawiye camp. Good question. Give me names. Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, to name just two of those running now as they look frontrunners among individuals in that camp. Each of the two was a former president. None was impressive enough to be given a 2nd shot at Presidency. The Somali Doctrine of not re-electing a president plays out here too. Moreover, the two are antagonistic too as they were rivals in previous presidential race. They are unlikely to form a joint front in this race.

In conclusion, expect surprises in these Federal elections as Somali politics is as unpredictable as peace and war among Somali nomads.

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HOW TO READ FARMAAJO-ROOBLE POLITICAL SHOWDOWN

Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, an official of the Somali Federal Government whose current job title is difficult to name because the title of “former president”doesn’t properly fit him here as he is still in office without mandate. So is the title of the Caretaker President without any official references or legal tools. Nobody knows how to address him. Most Somali media address him “Madaxweynaha Xilkiisii dhamaaday” (the president whose mandate had expired). He is a sort of a defacto occupier of Villa Somalia, following the end of his term in office in February 8, 2021.

Farmaajo had come to power through demagoguery of working towards holding one person one vote general elections in Somalia, a trick that had backfired and been exposed as he intended by this to engage in sham elections after topling most, if not all non-compliant leaders of the Federal Members States (FMS). As he failed in his deceptive plan, he decided to stay on by seizing power with force and constitutional coup through illegal means that attempted to extend his term by two more years. That too has failed badly. He was compelled to transfer power to a Caretaker prime minister to conduct election-related operations of the Government. He has been keeping low profile for a while. Finally, he got uncomfortable with the slow, but independent operations and decisions of the prime minister.

It is noteworthy to remind people that prime minister Rooble took a number of provocative and controversial decisions and foreign trips that marginalized Mohamed Farmaajo’s role in the Executive Branch of the FGS. It is one of the basis for this political conflict.

Farmaajo’s chance to avenge Rooble appeared when he had reinstated Kulane, a NISA officer fired by Rooble a little more than a month ago. Rooble didn’t counter-act and let it go that time. This had encouraged Farmaajo to push back Rooble’s unilateral operations. Constitutionally, the prime minister’s executive power is drawn from the Council-in-Session. He has no powers outside the cabinet. But, a new political situation sets in: The executive powers of the Federal Government have shifted to the leaders of the peripheries, the FMS, as far as the election issues are concerned. Now, suddenly the powers of the prime minister is FMS-based. Farmaajo, therefore, saw diminishing returns for his re-election prospect as there is no predictable chance to manipulate the election. The dismissal of Fahad Yassin now is the biggest and last Farmaajo’s political chance to challenge Rooble and leaders of the FMS. He has two objectives in this manufactured confrontation:

  • To prolong his stint in Villa Somalia.
  • To derail the electoral process, which he sees it as unfavorable for his re-election bid, but most importantly, not to allow the persecution of his influential strategic and financial supporter on re-election campaign, Fahad Yassin.

Now that the two men have dug-in positions, it is difficult to bridge the gap in a compromise without serving justice to the family of Ikram Tahlil and people of Somalia.

Most leaders of the FMS would probably side with the position of the prime minister. International Partners are expected to express support to the prime minister’s efforts to avoid derailing the election plans. Farmaajo’s position is unsupportable as it is unsustainable.

(Photo above: former Speaker and Deputy Speaker trying to mediate the two men. Body language here hides no secrets.)

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Postscript: One should know that, NISA under Farmaao and Fahad, is a subversive political and security institution organized to eliminate, blackmail and harass political opponents of Mohamed Farmaajo. Reshuffling directors within NISA by Farmaajo the other night will not absolve Fahad Yassin and others of heinous crimes committed under his watch. Finally, and as usual, the rumor mills in Somalia surrounding the disappearance of Ms Ikram were busy producing alternative reports and conspiracy theories about her fate. Some say she is still alive in Kenya in the hands of foreign intelligence services. One can only rely on NISA statement on her disappearance. As it clearly appears now the political confrontation between Farmaajo and Rooble has degenerated into purely power struggle. One has to win. It has reached at a point of no return.

(This article has been updated since posting).

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Geellow Daaq oo Daaq, Laakiin Waxaa Laguu yaabaa Markaad Ciin Daaqdo

Qore: Maxamed Muuse Cartan

Ikraan waxa ku dhacay waxba kama duwana wixii ku dhacay Cabdiraxmaan Cabdishakuur, kaliya Cabdiraxmaan wuxuu haystay askar hubaysan oo ilaalisa oo si fudud ama sahal looma afduuban karin sida ku dhacday Ikraan.

Mana jiri karto wax sabab ah oo Ikraan loo dili karo, sidii aysan u jirin wax sabab ah oo dhali kartay in Cabdirahmaan Cabdishakuur duulaan qaawan habeen-barkii loogu soo qaado, laguna laayo ilaaladiisii iyo dad la joogey , isagana dhaawac loogu geystey, oo aan ka ahayn awood sheegasho (Abuse of power) iyo waxa afka baxaariga Jubada hoose lagu yiraahdo: KU TUSIYEE, afka reer mudugana lagu yiraahdo: Wallaahi baan la iskaa weydiinayn!

haddaba galka dacwada Ikraan waa ka weyn yahay Gaaljecel iyo Soomaali labada, waana arrin Caalami ah, waxaana laga yaabaa in mar hore xaqiiqdeeda la uruuriyey, sidii loo uruuriyey xaqiiqadii wariye Khashoogi safaaradda sacuudiga loogu dhex diley. Waxaa filayaa in Ikraan ay haysatay waddaniyad ah Isbahaysiga Boqortooyada Ingiriska (UK) ama British Passport.

Soomaalidu waxay ku maahmaahdaa: “Geelow daaq oo daaq, waxaase laguu yaabaa maalintaad ciin daaqdid,”

Fahad iyo Farmaajo waxaa laga sugayaa ciddii ay isku furan lahaayeen, markii xaqiiqadu soo baxdo, si la mid ah sidii Maxamed salmaan uu isugu furtay qaar ka mid ah dambiileyaashii fuliyey dilka iyo saraakiil ka mid ah sirdoonka Sacuudiga oo madaxa laga saaray eeddii dhammaanteed.

Haddaba waxaa dhici karta in Fahad Yaasiin oo awalba ul booc ah loogu tukubayey, in arrintaani Rooble ku dhiiri galiso inuu xilka ka qaado, lagana xannibo inuu dalka ka baxo inta dacwada meel laga saarayo. haddii ay taasi dhacdo wax walba filo! Xaq feeraha ayuu ka dillaacaa.

“What did Farmajo know, and when did he Know it?”

Arrintu Fahad ma dhaafi doontaa. Farmaajo muxuu ka ogyahay arrintan, goorma ayuuse ogaadey,

Allow Ammuuraha sahal

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ON THE CASE OF IKRAM’S MURDER

Does this strange request cut? I don’t think it does. It is a real test for Caretaker Prime Minister Rooble to pass manly or fail in disgrace. No doubt, Rooble is in trouble and the entire election process for 2020-2021 is in jeopardy because of this developing story.

Rooble wouldn’t be able to stay on as Caretaker Prime Minister, if he gets humilated by Farmajo and Fahad Yassin in connection with Ikram’s disappearance and murder as allegedly reported by NISA recently. He would be tempted to resign instead. This would put all stake-holders of the Somalia’s political establishment into disarray. All should be warned against possible ugly turn of events in the next few days. All FMS and opposition elements should start now monitoring the situation involving Rooble-Fahad-Farmajo confrontation.

In fact, this case could play out as the political opening and opportunity Farmajo Camp has been looking for to derail the momentum towards elections.

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HOW TO UNDERSTAND KENYAN FOREIGN MINISTER’S VISIT TO MOGADISHU TODAY

By Ismail Warsame
Opinion Columnist

Somalia and Kenya have been experiencing lowest point in their diplomatic relations recently. That is because of two factors:

  1. Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo couldn’t balance Somalia’s political and diplomatic relationships with neighbors of Djibouti, Kenya and Ethiopia. Eritrea had poor or no ties with all countries in the Horn of Africa neighborhood. Now that Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea had entered into secret pact, Kenya felt left out in the regional power-play.
  2. Kenya underestimated the diplomatic outreach of successive Somalia’s weak administrations in regard to its dispute on the continental shelf maritime delimitation with Somalia or to put in other words, Kenya’s controversial and aggressive claim to a portion of Somalia’s waters of the Indian Ocean. That dispute went to ICJ for arbitration. Kenya, however, has been attempting to exert maximum diplomatic pressure on Somalia to agree to an out of court settlement. It looks that Kenya has failed in its diplomatic efforts to score points in its struggle with Somalia on the maritime dispute.

In the meantime, Kenyan leaders have been engaged in political sabotage against Farmajo. Now that he is lame duck president and in a weaker political position constitutionally, Kenya is hooking up with interim prime minister, Rooble, to ease tension with Somalia, open trade routes to Miraa qat and try to continue its campaign for settlement of maritime dispute out of court, a taugh proposition no Somali leader dare to entertain now as Rooble has rushed to clarify the issue in a note released today after he met with Ms. Rachelle Omano, although they got her name wrong.

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The visit of Foreign Minister, Ms Rachelle Omano, is being facilitated by the interim prime minister, Mohamed Hussein Rooble, a move contrary to the wishes of Farmajo, who has issued earlier a memo on unconventional presidential letterhead design to all government departments against entering into any international agreement with foreign powers, presumably with Kenya. This exposes Farmajo in his attempt to keep himself in low profile on the eve of elections and as a result of number of agreements between FGS and FMS, on the top of the fact that his constitutional mandate had run out in February 8, 2021. Moreover, the political scars he had sustained in his recent fight with the opposition elements in Mogadishu have not healed up yet. Issuance of that memo, though, is an indication that he was still around.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has been working hard on Mohamed H. Rooble in a number of high profile encounters in Djibouti and London, UK, to bring about Omano’s visit to Mogadishu today with a reciprocal invitation to Rooble by President Kenyatta.

Now it looks that Farmajo and Rooble are in collusion course even before holding the elections. Based on the Federal Constitution, nature of caretaker government and agreements reached between FGS and FMS, the interim prime minister in cabinet session (not in isolation) has the executive powers of the government.

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POLITICAL AND SECURITY ASSESSMENT OF MOGADISHU FOLLOWING AGREEMENT REACHED BY STAKEHOLDERS

When flames of fire is extinguished, there are still remnants of live hot pieces of firewood simmering beneath the ashes. Similarly, in Mogadishu there are heavily armed clan militia in the quarters of Kaaraan, Circolo Ufficiale and elsewhere in the City and surrounding areas. They are ready to be activated for violence at short notice. Alshabab is engaged in not only co-governing Mogadishu, but also control large swathes of territory in the entire South-Central Somalia. The local and Central governments have no exclusive possession of arms and instruments of power, and in an election environment this poses serious security challenges. The diplomatic niceties and smiles among Mogadishu presidential candidates will fade away soon, adding more security problems in towns.

Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Rooble has acquired now higher political profile following his successful leadership in bringing opposing parties together in this Summit between FGS and FMS. If he has political ambitions, I believe he will choose one of two options: Supporting one presidential candidate from Darood camp to keep his current job, or move his name forward among presidential candidates. In the first option, observers believe that Rooble will support Farmajo’s candidacy amid absence of apparent other electable presidential candidates among the Daroods. Somalis say, “in the pains of labour, a woman has no choice in privacy. The plans of Rooble in this election will be exposed soon in the next few weeks. However, whatever he decides, this would be interpreted as a collective stand of Sacad/Habargidir. Either way, his political choice, apart from remaining a neutral technocrat, would add more tension to an already dynamic and volatile political atmosphere in Mogadishu and beyond.

Team Nabad iyo Nolool didn’t give up yet to re-run. But, this time around, their chance in re-electing Farmajo lies in the divisions and disunity of opposition leaders, especially among Hawiye presidential candidates, which is likely to happen as election campaigns heat up.

THE SOMALI TRAGEDY

By Mukhtar Ainashe
Oslo, Norway

The tragedy is that the same people who were saying four years ago that Farmaajo was an angel sent from the heavens are now saying that Rooble is a man that can walk on water.

With all due respect to both Farmaajo and Rooble, I must say that to me, both men are empty vessels in the ocean, appointed on dubious reasons. Neither of them has never, ever, articulated any meaningful political opinion of any kind. They have no political knowledge and experience, and with little understanding of the political dynamics in the country and the huge political, security, and socio-economic challenges facing our country.

Tragically, neither of them can articulate a vision for the country. In fact, they are narrow-minded low-level administrative bureaucrats from overseas. So, why would anyone expect any meaningful political solutions from them? They can offer none even if they wanted to.

I understand that some people mistakenly believe that Rooble could be a useful political tool that could be utilized to help rescue our country from the brink of a renewed civil war, but that is an argument based on pure fantasy. Rooble cannot not be expected to do something beyond his mental and physical abilities.

The sad fact is, Rooble lacks the political and intellectual faculties to lead our country at this critical time. He is the wrong man for the job. We must not make the same mistake twice.

The notion that Farmaajo is to be rejected and Rooble is the man that will rescue our people and our country is irrational and a wishful thinking. It is like someone saying that I do not like the king, but I would negotiate with his servant. It is worth mentioning that Farmaajo appointed Rooble, and he cannot, under any circumstance, disobey him.

In short, Rooble is not, can never be another Nuur Cadde! He is too weak and lacks the experience and the political courage that the late Somali prime minister had.

Ramadan Karim!

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