The tragedy of Somalia is no longer merely a story of weak governance, corruption, clan politics, or failed institutions. It is rapidly becoming a story of national self-destruction.
What is unfolding today in Somaliland is not simply a regional political maneuver. It is a symptom of a much deeper national disease. Faced with decades of diplomatic isolation and frustrated aspirations for international recognition, Somaliland’s political leadership appears increasingly willing to seek recognition from any quarter, regardless of the broader consequences for Somali territorial unity and statehood. Desperation has produced desperate choices.
Yet Somaliland alone should not bear the blame.
The greater responsibility lies with the collective failure of Somalia’s political class. For years, leaders in Mogadishu have ignored warning signs, dismissed legitimate grievances, and pursued narrow political interests instead of building a genuine national consensus. Every crisis was treated as a temporary inconvenience rather than evidence of a collapsing national project.
The message should have been clear long ago.
Puntland and Jubaland have spent years locked in political confrontation with Villa Somalia. Constitutional disputes, power struggles, and mutual distrust have become permanent features of the federal landscape. Instead of dialogue, compromise, and institutional development, Somalia’s leaders have chosen confrontation and political brinkmanship.
Now Somaliland appears to be moving further away from the Somali state altogether.
Yet even now, few lessons are being learned.
There remains a dangerous illusion among many political actors that Somalia can survive indefinitely through improvisation, personality cults, and the manipulation of clan loyalties. There is an assumption that the country can always return to the familiar patterns of the post-1991 era—fragmented administrations, competing authorities, and localized power centers.
That assumption is profoundly mistaken.
The next phase may not resemble the era of warlord fiefdoms. The conditions that existed in the 1990s no longer exist. Regional geopolitics have changed. Global competition has intensified. Strategic waterways have become more valuable. Foreign powers are more interested in the Horn of Africa than ever before.
A stateless or fragmented Somalia is not a vacuum. Vacuums do not remain empty.
If Somalia continues to unravel, other forces will emerge to fill the void. Some will come from within the region. Others will come from far beyond it. They will not be motivated by Somali unity, Somali sovereignty, or Somali national interests. They will be motivated by strategic access, commercial opportunities, military positioning, and geopolitical influence.
The Horn of Africa sits astride some of the world’s most important maritime routes. The Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean are not merely geographical features; they are strategic assets coveted by global and regional powers alike.
Those who believe Somalia’s collapse would benefit their faction, clan, administration, or political movement are making a catastrophic miscalculation.
Neither Hassan Sheikh Mohamud nor Al-Shabaab would emerge victorious from the territorial dismemberment of Somalia.
The fragmentation of Somalia would not produce winners. It would produce replacement actors.
New political entities would emerge. New external patrons would arrive. New security arrangements would be imposed. New realities would be created that Somalis themselves might no longer control.
History offers countless examples of nations that believed they could manage disintegration, only to discover that once the process begins, it acquires its own momentum.
That is the real danger confronting Somalia today.
Disintegration is easier to start than to stop.
Once territorial fragmentation becomes normalized, once constitutional legitimacy collapses, once regions permanently lose confidence in the national project, reversing the process becomes exponentially more difficult. Political wounds harden into permanent realities. Temporary arrangements become irreversible facts on the ground.
Somalia is approaching that threshold.
The country is not merely experiencing a political crisis. It is confronting an existential crisis.
The solution requires immediate action: restoration of constitutional order, genuine federal dialogue, respect for regional autonomy, national reconciliation, and leadership capable of thinking beyond clan calculations and short-term political survival.
Above all, Somali leaders must rediscover a simple truth: no individual, no administration, and no political faction is more important than the survival of the Somali nation itself.
Time is running out.
The warning signs are visible.
The fractures are widening.
The consequences are becoming irreversible.
Act now—or witness the disappearance of Somalia as it has been known for generations.
The choice remains in Somali hands, but perhaps not for much longer.
—–
Support WAPMEN — the home of fearless, independent journalism that speaks truth to power across Somalia and the region. For subscriptions, inquiries, and support, contact Tel/WhatsApp: +252 90 703 4081.