Raid, Repression, and the Collapse of Rule of Law in Mogadishu

Ahmed Hure, Puntland Presidential Advisor detained in Mogadishu by the Federal Government.


When the State Becomes the Lawbreaker
There are moments in the political life of a country when the mask falls off and the true nature of power reveals itself. The recent police raid on the privately owned Airport Hotel in Mogadishu is one such moment.
A group of armed police officers storming private property without a warrant, making arrests under questionable authority, and intimidating law-makers and civilians is not law enforcement. It is state-sanctioned coercion.
This is not merely an isolated incident. It is part of a broader pattern emerging from the current federal administration — a pattern that increasingly resembles rule by intimidation rather than rule of law.
The Somali state, fragile as it already is, cannot afford such reckless behaviour.
When the police begin to behave like political militias, the constitutional order itself begins to collapse.


Why Puntland and Jubaland Came Armed
Those who were surprised that the leaders of Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland and Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madoobe of Jubaland arrived in Mogadishu recently with significant armed security contingents now have their answer.
They did not come armed out of arrogance.
They came armed out of necessity.
In a city where:
Private property can be raided without warrants.
Political opponents can be arbitrarily detained.
Members of Parliament can be banned from sessions for dissent.
— any responsible leader would think twice before walking into Mogadishu unprotected.
The message from Puntland and Jubaland was simple:
If the federal government cannot guarantee our safety under the law, we will guarantee it ourselves.
And given recent events, their caution now appears fully justified.


Hostage Parliamentarians
Even more alarming is the widely reported situation involving dissenting members of the Federal Parliament.
A group of lawmakers who opposed the administration’s unilateral constitutional manoeuvres have reportedly been:
banned from attending parliamentary sessions, prevented from travelling freely,
effectively confined within Mogadishu.
Let us call this situation by its real name.
This is a political hostage-taking.
Members of Parliament are not servants of the executive branch. They are representatives of the Somali people.
When a government begins restricting the movement of elected representatives because of their political views, the line between constitutional government and authoritarian rule disappears.


The Atmosphere of Fear in the Capital
Mogadishu today increasingly resembles a city governed by political anxiety rather than constitutional confidence.
The federal leadership appears to be operating under the dangerous assumption that force can substitute for legitimacy.
But Somali political history offers a harsh lesson:
Every government that has attempted to rule Somalia through intimidation has ultimately collapsed under the weight of its own excesses.
The Somali public has endured dictatorship, warlordism, and civil war. The last thing the country needs today is a new form of centralized political repression disguised as federal authority.


Consensus Cannot Be Built with Police Raids
At the very moment when Somalia desperately needs national dialogue and political compromise, the federal administration is sending the opposite signal.
You cannot invite political actors to discuss consensus elections while simultaneously unleashing police raids against perceived opponents.
You cannot speak of democratic processes while silencing dissenting parliamentarians.
And you cannot claim to defend constitutional order while violating basic legal procedures such as warrants and due process.
Consensus politics requires trust.
And trust cannot grow in an environment of intimidation.


A Dangerous Road Ahead
If this trajectory continues, Somalia risks entering a new phase of political fragmentation.
Federal member states will lose confidence in Mogadishu.
Opposition leaders will refuse negotiations.
Parliament will become paralysed.
And the fragile federal project — painstakingly rebuilt since 2012 — could begin to unravel.
All because those entrusted with power have forgotten the most basic principle of democratic governance:
The law exists to restrain the government — not to empower it to abuse citizens.


Somalia Must Choose: Law or Force
The raid on the Airport Hotel may seem like a small event in the daily turbulence of Somali politics.
But symbolically, it represents something much larger.
It represents the moment when the Somali state must choose between two paths:
a constitutional republic governed by law, or a coercive state governed by fear.
Somalia has already travelled the road of coercion once before.
The country cannot afford to go there again.

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