WDM EDITORIAL: The Tangled Web in Sanaag – Puntland, Khaatumo, and Mogadishu’s Dangerous Game

19 July 2025 

The escalating tensions in the Dhahar region of Sanaag represent more than a local border dispute. They are a symptom of a deepening crisis threatening the fragile foundations of Somali federalism, fueled by betrayal, overreach, and the Mogadishu regime’s cynical manipulation. The rift between Puntland and the Khaatumo Movement, once allies in liberating Laas Caanood, now risks plunging the region into renewed conflict, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s (HSM) government playing a dangerously incendiary role.

The Foundation: Liberation and the Seeds of Discord
There is little dispute over Puntland’s pivotal role in the 2023 liberation of Laas Caanood and surrounding SSC areas from Somaliland forces. Puntland Darawishta provided crucial military leadership, equipment, and fighters, sacrificing blood and treasure alongside local SSC clans. This victory, achieved through a coalition heavily reliant on Puntland’s commitment, was rightly hailed as a triumph of kinship and shared struggle against occupation. The expectation was that this shared sacrifice would forge a strong, cooperative relationship based on mutual respect for historical ties and administrative realities.

The Betrayal: Khaatumo’s Overreach in Sanaag
Instead, a starkly different reality has emerged. Emboldened, sources within Puntland and local observers in Sanaag contend, by overt political and military backing from Mogadishu, the Khaatumo Movement has pursued a policy of territorial aggrandizement. Its deployment of forces into the Dhahar district – an area consistently administered by Puntland for decades and explicitly within its constitutional boundaries – is viewed in Garowe not as an administrative error, but as a deliberate act of aggression and a profound betrayal.

The bitter irony is palpable: forces representing an entity whose very liberation was secured by Puntland’s intervention are now encroaching on territory Puntland considers its sovereign space. Puntland’s offers of dialogue, reportedly based on acknowledging historical context and existing constitutional frameworks, appear to have been rebuffed, deepening the sense of grievance in Garowe.

Mogadishu’s Malign Fingerprints: Orchestrating Instability
The HSM regime’s involvement is the most destabilizing factor. Multiple credible reports indicate Mogadishu is actively fueling this conflict:
1.  Political Legitimization: Granting Khaatumo Movement formal recognition and status far exceeding its administrative control, directly challenging Puntland’s authority in the SSC and Sanaag.
2.  Military Provocation: The reported deployment of Somali National Army (SNA) units, often under the cover of local militia to support Khaatumo operations in Dhahar is a constitutional grenade. It blatantly violates:
    1. Article 48: Federal Member State security jurisdiction within their borders.
    2. Article 49: The mandate for cooperation and mutual respect between levels of government.
    3. The core principle that the FGS cannot militarily intervene against a Federal Member State on its own territory.

Strategic Objective: Analysts widely interpret this as a deliberate HSM strategy to weaken Puntland, the most robust proponent of genuine federalism and a persistent check on Mogadishu’s centralizing ambitions. Destabilizing Puntland’s eastern flank in Sanaag serves this purpose, diverting Puntland’s resources and attention while undermining its territorial claims. The misuse of local militia forces for this internal political maneuvering also gravely risks further fragmentation of the Somali State.

Consequences: A Tinderbox Ignited
The situation is dangerously volatile:
Risk of Open Conflict: The militarization of Dhahar pits former allies against each other. A single skirmish could escalate rapidly.
Federalism Under Siege: Mogadishu’s actions demonstrate a fundamental disregard for the federal compact. If a Federal Member State’s borders can be violated by FGS-backed forces supporting a rival administration, the entire federal project collapses into chaos.
Al-Shabaab’s Opportunity: Internal Somali conflict is manna from heaven for Al-Shabaab, diverting vital resources and attention from counter-terrorism efforts.
Deepening Divisions: The sense of betrayal felt in Puntland and among its supporters in Sanaag risks hardening clan and regional fault lines for a generation.

WDM’s Call: De-escalation, Constitution, and Dialogue

1.  Immediate Withdrawal  Khaatumo militia and all SNA units must withdraw immediately from Dhahar and other disputed areas within Puntland’s historical and constitutional jurisdiction.
2.  Mogadishu Must Cease Fire: President Mohamud’s regime must halt all political, financial, and military support aimed at destabilizing Puntland and provoking conflict between Puntland and Khaatumo Movement. Respecting Federal Member State autonomy is non-negotiable.
3.  ATMIS Command must immediately investigate the deployment of SNA forces to Dhahar, publicly clarify their mandate, and ensure strict adherence to counter-terrorism objectives, avoiding entanglement in FGS political machinations against FMS.
4.  Return to Constitutional Dialogue: Meaningful dialogue between Puntland and Khaatumo representatives is essential, but must be based on:
    *   Recognition of the existing constitutional framework governing FMS boundaries.
    *   Acknowledgement of Puntland’s historical administration and sacrifices in the region.
    *   A commitment to resolving disputes peacefully within the federal structure, without Mogadishu acting as a partisan spoiler.
5.  International Vigilance: The international community must move beyond passive concern. It must publicly condemn the unconstitutional FGS incursions into Puntland territory, pressure Mogadishu to adhere to the Provisional Constitution, and actively support mediation efforts focused on de-escalation and federal principles.

Conclusion
The incident in Dhahar is not an isolated development. It is the calculated result of Khaatumo overreach, enabled and actively encouraged by a Mogadishu regime intent on crippling Puntland and dismantling meaningful federalism. The betrayal of the shared sacrifice at Laas Caanood adds a layer of bitter tragedy. If this dangerous course is not reversed, the consequences will extend far beyond Sanaag, threatening Somalia’s fragile stability and playing directly into the hands of its enemies. Cool heads, constitutional fidelity, and an end to Mogadishu’s destructive meddling are desperately needed before this tinderbox explodes.