To do that, you have to take into account his advantages and disadvantages in getting re-elected.
Let us take first his advantages:
Divisions or disunity among his Hawiye opposition presidential challengers in the absence of apparent presidential candidates from other clans, especially Darod.
Financial advantage with Qatari funding in dark money.
His Al-shabab style recruitment of Somali youth potentially getting elected to Somali forthcoming parliament.
Loyalty of three leaders of Galmudugh, Hirshabelle and Southwest to his re-election bid.
His demogogic populist personality among gullible portions of the Somali population.
Disadvantages
Resistance from the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland.
His bad relationships with representatives and diplomatic missions of the Western countries working with Somalia.
His belated negative exposure to the Somali public of his deceptive ways and lack of transparency in running public affairs.
His sinophobic attitude towards certain Somali clans.
His dictatorial tendency in regards to Somalia’s governance and anti-federal policies.
His disregard for the rule of law and the constitution.
His most recent misdemeanors and love to cling to power unlawfully frighten many people.
His close relationships with what is publicly perceived as an arch enemy of Somalia: Ethiopia.
Finally, the uphill battle of breaking away from Somali Political Doctrine that states that no Somali leader can be elected to a 2nd term in office.
Each of these advantages and disadvantages is volatile, dynamic and unpredictable. It is clear, though, that Farmajo’s political weaknesses are more than his strengths.
Based on the above assessment, Farmajo will mostly likely exit from Somali politics, at least on the short-term.
According to recent secret diplomatic and intelligence reports, it was a military plan/adventure that no one could believe it possible. It was an agreement between Farmajo, Abyi and Afewerki to overthrow the administrations of Puntland, Jubaland and Somaliland.
The secret agreement entails that Somalia would send young men to Eritrea for military training. Upon graduation, they would join army divisions of Ethiopia and Eritrea, who would invade Puntland, Jubaland and Somaliland to capture or kill regional leaders and get rid of Federal Member States.
While the accord is still in the books, the war in Tigray of Ethiopia has upset its implementation.
This explains why nobody could understand Farmajo before his mandate expired. This also justifies his illegal constitutional coup in April 12, 2021. In fact, he was on course with this wild plan of seizing power with the help of Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Who had agreed to fund this entire military operation? It is equally unbelievable that the tiny Gulf State of Qatar had pledged and entered into the agreement to bankroll this entire interventionist military adventure in Somalia in order to help Farmajo seize power unlawfully by seeking assistance in foreign invasion of Somalia.
Judging by this highly reliable diplomatic and intelligence information, Farmajo is a dangerous traitor that cannot be allowed to remain in Villa Somalia even for a minute. All Somalis must be warned. They have an existential threat at hand.
Postscript: Since posting of this article, we have learned that the Navy of landlocked Ethiopia was involved in the planned military invasion of Somalia. Thus, it explains why Ethiopia needed creating strong navy with the help of France.
They are competitive in quality and fees for services. They are also responsive to patients’ concerns and enquiries. Here, there is an atmosphere of feeling of ownership unlike in the case of public institutions.
For me, it was particularly gratifying to host a guest from another country, who needed some labtests. I took him to Qaran Hospital in Garowe, Puntland, this morning. They were quick and professional.
The services provided by private sector business is the reason Somalia couldn’t die to sustain life and livelihoods of her people amid state failure and harshest environmental and security conditions in the country. In the absence of a central authority in Somalia, decentralized system of regional governance (federalism) had given rise to better opportunities in public service delivery and working environment. There are lessons to be learned here by those, who didn’t know what they were talking about in the debate on Somalia’s governance.
You have lived recently through important milestones in major political and cultural developments in Somalia, namely the electoral impasse, armed clashes in Mogadishu as result, and most importantly, fulfilling your religious obligations in the holy month of Ramadan Almubarak. WDM has been keeping you informed tirelessly on the latest developments in Somalia and greater Horn of Africa. Consequently, many of you have realized by now the importance of free press for the society, especially for societies like ours with considerable portion of the population living in exile as the diaspora. What is uniquely important in WDM press coverage is the unbiased critical analysis of events and news without fear or favor. Many readers like you appreciate this fact.
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Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman has just completed his first visit to the region as U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, traveling to Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Ethiopia from May 4 to 13, 2021.
The Horn of Africa is at an inflection point, and the decisions that are made in the weeks and months ahead will have significant implications for the people of the region as well as for U.S. interests. The United States is committed to addressing the interlinked regional crises and to supporting a prosperous and stable Horn of Africa in which its citizens have a voice in their governance and governments are accountable to their citizens.
A sovereign and united Ethiopia is integral to this vision. Yet we are deeply concerned about increasing political and ethnic polarization throughout the country. The atrocities being perpetrated in Tigray and the scale of the humanitarian emergency are unacceptable. The United States will work with our international allies and partners to secure a ceasefire, end this brutal conflict, provide the life-saving assistance that is so urgently needed, and hold those responsible for human rights abuses and violations accountable. The crisis in Tigray is also symptomatic of a broader set of national challenges that have imperiled meaningful reforms. As Special Envoy Feltman discussed with Prime Minister Abiy and other Ethiopian leaders, these challenges can most effectively be addressed through an inclusive effort to build national consensus on the country’s future that is based on respect for the human and political rights of all Ethiopians. The presence of Eritrean forces in Ethiopia is antithetical to these goals. In Asmara, Special Envoy Feltman underscored to President Isaias Afwerki the imperative that Eritrean troops withdraw from Ethiopia immediately.
The political transition in Sudan is a once-in-a-generation opportunity that can serve as an example for the region. As Special Envoy Feltman underscored to Sudan’s leadership, the United States will continue to support that country’s ongoing transition to democracy so that Sudan can claim its place as a responsible regional actor after three decades as a destabilizing force. We are also committed to working with international partners to facilitate resolution of regional flash points—such as the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and conflict on Sudan’s borders—so they do not undermine the fragile progress made since the revolution.
As Special Envoy Feltman discussed with leaders in Addis Ababa, Cairo, and Khartoum, Egypt and Sudan’s concerns over water security and the safety and operation of the dam can be reconciled with Ethiopia’s development needs through substantive and results-oriented negotiations among the parties under the leadership of the African Union, which must resume urgently. We believe that the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by the parties and the July 2020 statement by the AU Bureau are important foundations for these negotiations, and the United States is committed to providing political and technical support to facilitate a successful outcome.
The Special Envoy will return to the region in short order to continue an intensive diplomatic effort on behalf of President Biden and Secretary Blinken.
The Israeli newspaper “Haaretz” published an article by the famous writer (Ari Shebet), in which he bites fingers of remorse over the occupation of historic Palestine, saying (It seems that we are facing the most difficult Prime Time Zone in history, and there is no solution with them except recognition of their rights and ending the occupation).
Why did he say (there is no taste to live in this country, no taste for writing or reading)
The Israeli writer began his article by saying (It seems that we have passed the point of no return, and it is possible that Israel can no longer end the occupation, stop settlement activity and achieve peace, and it seems that it is no longer possible to reform Zionism, save democracy and divide the Prime Time Zone in this country).
If this is the case, he added, there is no taste for living in these countries, and there is no taste for writing in “Haaretz”, and no taste for reading “Haaretz.” You should do what Rogel Alpher suggested two years ago, which is leave the country. If “Israeli” and Judaism are not a vital factor in identity, and if every “Israeli” citizen has a foreign passport, not only in the technical sense, but also in the psychological sense, then it is over. Say goodbye to friends and move to San Francisco, Berlin or Paris.
Look at Israel breathes its last
From there, from the countries of the new German ultra-nationalism, or the countries of the new American ultra-nationalism, one must look calmly and watch the “State of Israel” breathe its last. We must take three steps back to watch the democratic Jewish state sink. The matter may not be established yet.
Also read: The occupation soldiers document the extreme terror that they lived, and the resistance missiles over their heads are heading to Tel Aviv
Perhaps we have not passed the point of no return yet. It may still be possible to end the occupation, stop settlement activity, reform Zionism, save democracy and divide the country.
And the writer continued, I put my finger in the eyes of Netanyahu, Lieberman and the neo-Nazis, to wake them up from their Zionist delirium, that Trump, Kouchner, Biden, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are not the ones who will end the occupation.
It is not the United Nations and the European Union that will stop settlement activity. The only power in the world capable of saving “Israel” from itself, are the “Israelis” themselves, by inventing a new political language that recognizes the reality and that the Palestinians are rooted in this land. I urge you to find the third way in order to survive here and not die.
A lie invented by the Zionist movement
The writer in Haaretz newspaper affirms: that “the Israelis”, since they came to Palestine, have realized that they are the result of a lie invented by the Zionist movement, during which it used all the deception of the Jewish character throughout history.
By exploiting and amplifying what Hitler called the Holocaust, the movement was able to convince the world that Palestine is the “Promised Land”, and that the alleged temple is under the Al-Aqsa Mosque, thus turning the wolf into a lamb suckling from the money of American and European taxpayers, until it became A nuclear monster.
The writer sought the assistance of Western and Jewish archaeologists, the most famous of whom was Israel Felinstein from Tel Aviv University, who emphasized that “the temple is also a lie and a fairy tale that does not exist, and all excavations have proven that it has completely disappeared thousands of years ago, and this was explicitly stated in a large number of Jewish references. And many Western archaeologists have confirmed this.
The last of them was in 1968 AD, the British archaeologist, Dr. “Kathleen Cabinos”, when she was director of excavations at the British School of Archeology in Jerusalem. She carried out excavations in Jerusalem and was expelled from Palestine because of her exposing the “Israeli” myths, about the presence of traces of Solomon’s Temple below the Al-Aqsa Mosque …
Where I decided that there would never be any traces of Solomon’s temple, and I discovered that what the Israelis call “the building of Solomon’s stables” has nothing to do with Solomon or the stables in the first place. Rather, it is an architectural model of a palace commonly built in several areas in Palestine, and this is despite the fact that “Kathleen Kenyon” came from Before the Palestine Exploration Fund Association, for the purpose of clarifying what was stated in the biblical narratives, because it showed great activity in Britain in the middle of the nineteenth century on the history of the “Near East”.
Also read: Dimona is under fire .. Al-Qassam Brigades launch a missile strike on the Israeli nuclear reactor area
He stressed that the curse of lying is what persecutes the “Israelis”, and day after day, slapping them on their faces in the form of a knife in the hand of Maqdisi, Khalili and Nabulsi, or with a collective stone, or a bus driver from Jaffa, Haifa and Acre.
The “Israelis” realize that they have no future in Palestine, as it is not a land without a Prime Time Zone, as they lied. Here is another writer who admits, not the existence of the Palestinian Prime Time Zone, but rather his superiority over the “Israelis”, (Gideon Levy) the left-wing Zionist, saying: It seems that the Palestinians are different from the rest of humanity. We said, “A few years will pass, and they will forget their homeland and their land, and if their young generation explodes the 87 uprising … We put them in prisons and said we will raise them in prisons.”
Years later, after we thought that they had learned the lesson, if they returned to us with an armed uprising in 2000, it ate green and everything, so we said we would demolish their homes and besiege them for many years, and if they extracted missiles impossible to hit us with, despite the siege and destruction, so we started planning them with walls and barbed wire. .
And if they were coming to us from underground and through tunnels, until they thickened us with killers in the last war. We fought them with minds, and then they seized the “Israeli” satellite (Amos)? And they enter terror into every house in “Israel”, by broadcasting threats and intimidation, as happened when their youth managed to seize the second “Israeli” channel. In sum, it seems that we are facing the most difficult Prime Time Zone in history, and the only solution with them is recognition of their rights and an end to the occupation.
When European colonial racists said black people are inferior intellectually to the white people, does the matter require fact-check? Strangely, some blacks began to believe in this big lie. Any person of any race is inferior in intellect, when not given an opportunity in education and other blessings of life. Similarly, when some Somalis claim that existing Somali federalism is clannish or clan-based federalism, is that a fact-based reality or “alternative reality?” Could you establish a federal state with regions having not shared borders, for example, Mudugh and Lower Shabelle Regions? Or Hiiraan and Nugaal Regions? Could you create a viable federal state with communities not so keen to have a common regional state, for their own reasons? Then, what are they talking about when they malign and denounce Somali federalism? In fact, they have re-birth of city-state of Mogadishu in mind. Unfortunately, some people started to believe in this fallacy and deception after surviving through the mayhem of civil war caused by tyranny and police state in Mogadishu.
Alternative reality is a fancy phrase for a lie. There is no alternative fact, but a fact. The phrase “fake news” used by Trump and Trumpers is a denial of truth and defence tools against exposure of truth.
The phrase “Nabad and Nolool” now used by Farmajo Administration has nothing to do with peace and people’s lives. It is an empty phrase to smokescreen reality with false image of better life to come. It is truly a fake attempt to mislead gullible citizens as a tool for a demogogue. Take Farmajo’s Somali National Army, SNA. It is a collection of Civil War clan militias of South-Central Somalia. SNA is just euphemism for the remnants of clan militias of warlords, Union of Islamic Courts, Al-Shabab and predatory Mogadishu business community. It is a fake national army – an alternative reality.
The people of the world thought the era of Hitler’s propaganda Minister, Paul Joseph Goebbels (photo above), who said that repeating lies often enough would make them true, would never happen again. This has been proven to be not the case. It is happening now.
Because Somalis aren’t equipped with the tools of fact-checking in terms of education in the absence of accepted neutral think-tanks and opportunities for independent research assistance, they are susceptible to misleading misinformation and deception by unscrupulous individuals and entities, including partisan politicians and interest groups.
Editor’s Note. Religious sects of Sunni teaching in Somalia are no longer interested in confronting extremists among their ranks. That is because they have become the new political, religious and business elites of Somalia. Now they aren’t limited anymore to religious scholarship and conveying the message of Allah. They are now more inclined to mind their worldly business. You won’t see taarigas (sects) fighting or bashing each other anymore in this country. The question is who would confront Al-Shabab or other extremists ideologically when the New Religious Elites of Somalia aren’t ready to sponsor God’s good message on earth? The article to follow is drawn from WDM archives. Take a read.
It sounds like a fresh victory day of Islam in Garowe today, modeling Bilal in the dawn of the religion. Unsynchronized refrains of “Allah The Great” rocks the City from every corner. The local mosque imams seem to compete with better sermons and religious knowledge. Some recite the Qur’anic verses in traditional Somali fashion. They call themselves “Sunna Wal Jamaaca” religious scholars. They are bent on making the religion user- friendly with a blend of suffism and references to cult of religious personalities in Somalia and beyond. Others read out the verses in typical arabic accent, sounding even better than native Arabs in their deliberations. They consider themselves more scholarly than the untravelled home-grown traditional Sheikhs. They practise more fundamental approach to Islam and strict adherence to the Book. Some people accuse them of pursuing hardline position in a Sunni society with liberal religious views, while the fundamentalists allege others of not strictly following the proper teachings of Islam. These sectarian religious groups avoid each others’ mosques or places of worship, a clear indication of how far they are irreconcilable, and how deep their contradictions run. In general, these religious rivalries aren’t new developments. Divisions and subdivisions of sectarian nature in Islam have been existing since the death of Prophet Mohamed (SCWS). Our current concern is that this country is too fragile to handle these destabilizing religious contradictions.
The various styles of reciting Qur’anic verses coming from every city in Somalia’s mosques sound amplifiers are microcosm of internal struggle and religious sectarianism that has been growing steadily in Somalia for the past four-five decades. This fact is one of the most crucial dimensions in Somalia’s body politics today. The fact that it is overlooked and underestimated when deliberating on Somalia’s national and regional issues is a fatal academic and political miscalculation. Resolving Somalia’s political conflicts along the path to national reconciliation must take into account the religious factor, societal problems posed by religious sectarianism or “Tariqa” conflicts.
The latest political announcements (press statements) by Puntland political parties and their petition to Puntland State President, the Electoral Commission and to some members of the international community under the heading: Resolving Local Municipality Elections Stalemate, issued in Garowe, March 21, 25, 2013, indicate either the non-existence of mutual dialogue or break-down of political discourse within the State on the best way forward for holding local government elections. A number of political parties including UDAD, Midnimo, PDP and Wadajir seem to have forged an association to challenge the Government on its latest reform proposals and planned changes in Voter IDs registration. Among other things, these new political parties demand the immediate delay of Municipal Elections in Puntland until adequate preparations are done to insure fair public participation and a new independent Electoral commission installed.
As a neutral person on the current disagreements, “stalemate” as they put it, I think it is not appropriate for me to comment on these specific documents and respective political statements surrounding these issues, despite repeated requests by members of the Puntland public to do so.Discussing democratization process in Puntland State, however, gives me a great deal of pleasure. But, it is long overdue. It is unfortunate that Puntland State has not come out of age yet and still in the woods. In other words, Puntland has been heavily suffering far too long from political stagnation since its foundation in August 1998. Democratization in the State has never been in the good books of its successive leaders as it was never contemplated as political imperative or priority for the continued survival and sustainability of the regional administration against all imaginable upheavals of Somali clan politics and rocky relationships with the rest of Somalia.It is extremely important to note here that rushing things of such importance and magnitude is not wise for it creates more problems and serious fatal errors in hasty fashion to feel and look good in the eyes of foreign donor community. The fate of the State hangs on it and nobody has the right to gamble at the expense of nation’s existence, public safety and regional political stability. It requires tremendous efforts, resources, thorough preparatory work and ample time to build political consensus and legal framework for the final implementation of the electoral process in fair and transparent manners.They said commonly, “A thousand-step journey starts with first one”. Leaders of Puntland State (authority and opposition) task and obligation to their people is to make sure that ‘One First Step” towards democratization must be moved straight forward towards the right direction. The alternative spells danger and political suicide for all concerned.
When concern for public trust and transparency lose meaning and significance, the operator in the darkness is unrestrained for all sorts of underhand activities. This looks like what is happening with Farmajo lately. He is unresponsive to public concerns about the latest developments in relation to Kenya’s attempts and diplomatic offensive to take advantage of his political weakness as he loses constitutional legitimacy of being a genuine Somali President. In fact, Kenya is more transparent and forthcoming now than Somalia with regards to latest information on the maritime dispute with Somalia. The heavily deducted document above and a number of other Kenyan notifications, quoting Somali sources, have created more public mistrust and concern on what the Federal Government of Somalia is doing in the darkness and behind closed doors (recall Qalbi-Dhagax case). General public opinion is now forming in Somalia that Farmajo will not be ever trusted again in a position of responsibility and public office, mainly due to his disregard for the rule of law, running of public duties in secret fashion and betrayal of traditional Somali values of consensus-building in resolving conflicts and running public affairs in transparent manners.
It is easier say than done. Not allowing tyranny is the objective here. Federalism is one of the tools to defend democracy- it is now obvious to the observer that federalism has stopped Farmajo attempting power grab. Teaching civic education in schools is another.Strong institns https://t.co/2qZB02SEMH
HERE THE “DIASPORA” REFERS TO DISPERSION OF JEWS AROUND WORLD AND THE TRAGIC HISTORICAL MISTAKE THEY MADE IN POLITICAL SELF-ISOLATION.
The Jews in-exile, mainly in Europe, North America, Middle East and Latin America, were people of talent and entrepreneurship. They were extremely successful in business and finance (banking and investment). They were also successful in education and culture. They, however, made an existential mistake in their continued survival in exile. They had isolated themselves from the political process in countries they lived. The result: Because of their hard work and self-made success, they had been attracting hatred and envy from the native populations. Thus, Jews slowly becoming the enemy target by hate groups and politicians of extremist views like Hitler in Germany and elsewhere. The outcome is that Jews had ended up in Hitler’s concentration camps. What is left of Jews in Germany fled for their lives to other countries around the world. Remember the “Krystal Nacht” (The Night of breaking Glasses) in Germany when Nazi activists broke into Jewish homes and synogogues at night to break up and burn things. What was their crime? They were blindsided by their success in business by thinking they were too strong community to be vulnerable, thus becoming complacent and comfortable with the status quo. Enventually, they had to pay high prices for ignoring the critical need for participation in the political process in their respective host countries. Jews had been suffering from this ostracism until the appearance of Zionism, an orthodox Jewish political ideology bent for world domination and reclaiming Palestine by chasing out their Arab neighbours.
Are the Somali communities in East, Southern and West Africa doing the same Jewish mistake? Somali-Kenyans and Ethio-Somalis, at least, finally started to understand of what I am talking about. They are now political forces to be reckoned with in Kenya and Ethiopia. What about Somalis in Southern and West Africa? There is a worrying trend that old-school businessmen are avoiding participation in the local political process, and not preparing their children to act as citizens of the countries they were born and raised – a Jewish mistake. They think that by fund-raising and supporting some native political candidates in election times as their future proteges is more than enough for their political protection in the host countries. They have to do more and prepare their offsprings to be full citizens and get elected to political bodies.
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 
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