This article has been updated.
Election 1P1V is ruled out in Somalia for foreseeable future as time and resources have been wasted or squandered during the course of four-year term of the FGS. The alternative is one of remaining two inconvenient options: Extention of term mandates for the Federal Institutions or devising other modalities of indirect elections.
The first option is very tough due to resistance from Puntland and Jubaland states. The 2nd option is more likely to occur.
Farmaajo and Khayre will try to persuade the Presidents of Federal Member States to agree to an extension of one-two year’s period. Puntland and Jubaland would oppose outright. Horse trading will would start in which Farmaajo would recognize Ahmed Madoobe as the legitimate President of Jubaland to finish his full term. If Madoobe accepts Farmaajo’ offer, Puntland would be isolated. President of Puntland would have a few bitter options left. The stakes here are high for Puntland.
WDM recommends to President Said Abdullahi Deni to avoid unilateral decision under these difficult circumstances, but instead, to rush back home for full consultation with his constituencies.
PS. Note in the picture, flags of FMS were removed in the meeting hall as if FMS don’t exist as another level of the FGS.