Garowe, July 28, 2019

By Staff Reporter

Historians and experts of current Somali political Affairs like Nuredin Deriye, Ismail Haji Warsame and others in the know, have assessed and strongly believe that the federal arrangement is the only mechanism that currently binds Somali regions together. Remove or unravel the Federal Constitution, and Somalia would split into Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland, Southwest, Central Somali Regions and Banadir.

Speaking up and making interviews on Puntland State TV on the 21st Anniversary Celebrations of Puntland foundation, these experts shared their experiences with Somalis and world about the historical significance of the creation of Puntland in August 1998 for the revival and re-instatement of the failed state of Somalia. A 2nd Somali Republic had been founded in October 2004 as a result of Puntland leadership. These historical achievements are now in danger of being rolled back.

This is not fiction, but a potential and likely scenario, if the current leaders of the Federal Government do not do their due diligence in respecting the Federal Arrangements. At moment, the Federal Constitution is the only legal instrument remaining to keep Somalia loosely together.

By not understanding this fundamental fact and the gravity of tampering the only document holding Somalia now together as one country in the hope of building a united and functioning country, the leaders of FGS are opening Pandora Box and playing with fire that nobody would be able to extinguish.

Once, the Provisional Federal Constitution of Somalia is challenged or removed, the clock would start ticking for total disentegration of Somalia. The most likely scenario is that Somaliland, Puntland, Central Regions, Bay and Bakool would come under Ethiopian hegemony and eventual occupation. There would be war between Ethiopia and Kenya for Jubaland. Ethiopia would probably win the war for Jubaland. Banadir would be willingly incorporated into Ethiopia. Ethiopia wouldn’t be a land-locked country any more. The Ethiopian Navy is already prepared and being readied to take over the Somali ports along the Indian Ocean and Red Sea. Somalia would cease to exist per the Map recently published by the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry.

Don’t tamper with the Federal Constitution!


Postscript: Some exchanges of comments on the Breaking News in the social media inserted here below.

Abdullahi Gassim to Ismail Warsame:

Yes, we are talking the same subject, and what I am not agreeing is your analysis based on a negative scenario and the outcome is very disturbing to the readers who believe in nationalism and don’t belong to a political fractions or so called states and nobody is opening the pandora jar rather we can say hopefully it’s a Golden Fleece.

Ismail Warsame to Abdullahi Gassim:

I like your comments. And, I also agree that it could be interpreted as negative, especially by those who don’t want to hear bad news, even if it is true. I honestly believe that the establishment of these “so called States” is what is saving Somalia as we know it from disappearance. I had lived and experienced through this, and I can assure you that I know what I am talking about. In Somalia, the 1st Republic had failed and disappeared. The 2nd Republic had to be constructed anew. The only way that could be done was through “so called States”. The only instruments linking them now as one level of a federal government is the Provisional Federal Constitution. Get rid of it, and you don’t have Somalia any more.

Author: Warsame Digital Media WDM

About the blogger: This blog is associated with the former Chief of Staff in Puntland State Presidency, 1998-2005. He also worked with the UN and World Bank Joint Secretariat for Somalia’s Re-construction and Development Program (RDP), 2005-2006, as a Zonal Technical Coordinator for Puntland and later as National Aid Technical Coordinator with the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and European Union. He is now an independent political analyst and commentator on current issues and occasionally gives historical perspective on modern Somalia’s politics. He lives and works in Toronto, Canada. He can be reached at:

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