SOMALI FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: THREE AND HALF DOWN

Garowe, May 13, 2019 – Based on yesterday’s separate Communique issued by federal regional states of Puntland, Hirshabelle and Southwest, it is now clear that the Federal Government of Somalia has succeeded in splitting and breaking up the Inter-state Cooperation Council of Federal Member States into two camps, following the recent acrimonious Garowe Summit. Puntland, Hirshabelle and Southwest and half of Galmudugh (unofficially represented in Garowe Gathering by FGS) have now fallen into line with FGS, effectively isolating Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland and Ahmed Duale Haaf of Galmudugh.

Puntland State, the wild card here in the equation of regional chess-game has been successfully persuaded to join the Farmaajo-Khaire political calculus. a turning point in FGS Policy of “Regime Change” before Somalia’s 2020 Parliament and Presidential Elections takes place.

FGS Regime Change is apparently essential to remove any regional state obstacles to the re-election of Farmaajo for a 2nd term in Villa Somalia on a planned nationwide general election. FGS fight is now on to deal with Jubaland and the Galmudugh half or faction headquartered in DusaMareb of Galgadud Region led by Haaf. The other half of Galmudugh in Adaado has been already won over and now fallen into the FGS fold. The Adaado faction had threatened earlier to join the anti-Farmaajo opposition in Mogadishu upon Haaf victory in his negotiations with Federal leaders in Garowe Summit, according to reliable sources in Mogadishu and Adaado.

With Haaf “Faction” now constituting no major problem for the FGS, it would be interesting to watch developments in the forthcoming Jubaland Elections.

One may call this as the biggest take-away from recent Garowe Summit between FGS and federal states, calling it inappropriately “Garowe-III”