Tag: Eritrea

A TURNING POINT IN TIGREYAN WAR

USA pressure on Abyi regime is bearing fruits with Eritrean army pullout from Tigray and retreat of Ethiopian forces from major cities there, including the regional capital, Mekelle. Addis Ababa leadership is losing ground in the war. Ethiopia had benefitted from Western assistance since time immemorial against its real and perceived enemies like Somalis and surrounding muslim countries. This time Prime Minister Abyi had ignored Ethiopian history and ventured out into uncharted foreign policy adventures. The result is that Ethiopia has lost its traditional Western allies.

It looks that Abyi has given in, under pressure, to negotiate with TPLF leaders. Ethiopian internal situation is now chaotic and unpredictable. It is also unclear whether Abyi would be able to hang on to power in a turbulent Ethiopia, and whether his expected gesture for peaceful negotiation would settle and calm things down in Ethiopia.

TPLF would unlikely push towards Addis Ababa, for they would experience the same Western pressure as Abyi has suffered from. They would be forced to negotiate with either Abyi or his would-be successors.

The new political and military developments in Ethiopia would have impact on Somalia as well, especially with regards to the recent unholy alliance between Farmajo, Afewarki and Abyi. It would also negatively impact on the Somali Regional state and its current Addis-appointed nominal leader, Mustafe Cagjar, who relied heavily on Abyi and supported Farmajo’s shenanigans in Somalia. This is still a developing story. Stay tuned.

TREASON?

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HOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND REGIONAL POWER-PLAYS?

You hear these days that Egypt is seeking military and security cooperation or pact with Kenya, South Sudan, and even as far as Congo? Guess against whom? You know Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea had entered into similar accord or understanding, and you wonder against whom? You know big powers are in the game of seeking hegemony and spheres of influence in any corner of the globe. That may be understandable as USA, China, among others, are engaged in stiff rivalry and competition for resources and alliances. What isn’t clear is a small nation with limited economic and military resources trying swallow more than she can chew like Eritrea and Kenya. One possible explanation is that these ambitious small nations feel insecure and vulnerable to external security threats beyond their borders. They want to project an image of readiness to counter perceived security threats. In other words, they want to be seen as power-players in geopolitical terms. They are also sending signals to big powers that they should be counted for in the rivalry equation as far as their respective sub-region is concerned. To put it in a different form, small nations are trying to attract the attention of big powers for financial aid, resources and favors.

Put all these together, it is called regional or global power-plays.

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WHAT DO FARMAJO, ABYI AND AFEWERKI HAVE IN COMMON?

1. They are for strong central governments in their respective countries.

2 They are anti-federalist and anti-devolution of power.

3 They are tin-pot dictators.

4. They repressive demagogues.

5. They have agreed to seize Somalia through joint military force under the pretext of propping up Farmajo, but, perhaps with wider strategic political objectives.

5. They have regional, political and strategic designs for East Africa, replacing IGAD as a regional block.

6. Ironically, each of them came to power through deceptive populism and false promises of better government and life for their respective peoples.

7 in the end, each of them had turned out to be the enemy of the people. They must be stopped before they do more harm.

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