It was said that since time immemorial that those who put you in power rarely keep you in power. That is because you owe gratitude to those supporters, and that automatically translates into power over you as long as you keep these advisers and share power with them. Consequently, you either become hostage to them or try to get rid of them. In the end, some of these advisers, if not all, would turn against you as you try to develop your own independent political thoughts and initiatives. If you do the latter, that is when all hell breaks loose. This is what has been happening in Puntland State. A small lobbyist and political brokers group called “Aaraan Jaan”, in Puntland political jargon, who mostly hail from Nugaal Region of Puntland were critical in President Deni’s ascent to the State’s Presidency. Paradoxically, this tiny lobby group has practically no political influence beyond the Seat of Puntland State, Garowe. The rest of the country loathe them. As expected and by historical experience time and time again, yesterday’s supporters of the President are trying to remove him from power. President Deni is fighting them back with no plan B besides One Person One Vote project for which he has been wasting a lot of time and man-hours in implementing this “fighting back” project. Because Deni is fond of delaying tactics and indecision bordering on direlection of duty, he has already put Puntland governance in multiple political clashes and violent confrontations with his yesterday’s allies to hang on to power. That strategy is increasingly putting Puntland Stability at great risk.

There are also many other factors in play here, mainly two contradictory schools of thought- Traditional Clan Indirect democracy and direct popular suffrage with increasingly youth demand for participation. Youth constitute at least 75% of the population. In addition, there are marginalized various political figures who failed to have any public attraction. They are split between President Deni and Aaran Jaan political brokers, basically directionless and bandwagoning either of them. The general public is caught in the crossfire and deeply illusioned.

Most importantly, there are external players in the mix also that are engaged in Puntland destabilizion, mainly UAE and leaders of Somali Federal Government separately supporting one side or the other.

In a nutshell, there are two factions responsible for Puntland current Electoral Impasse: President Deni and Aaran Jaan – yesterday’s allies.

The famous traditional leadership of Puntland regions is increasingly losing traction with slowly fading moral authority they enjoyed so long.

Puntland State salvation now lies in potential rise of a “Third Party” either in alternative or mediation role, and possibly that is the only way to avoid the imminent civil and armed clashes, and Puntland destabilizion.

[This article has been updated since posting].