KEEP TALKING — OR WATCH SOMALIA BURN AGAIN

WAPMEN Editorial

Somalia stands today on the edge of a familiar abyss.
The meeting rooms of Villa Somalia may have grown tense. Voices may have risen. Trust may have evaporated. But let us be brutally clear:
When Somali leaders stop talking, Somalia starts bleeding.
Civil war does not begin with bullets.
It begins with silence.
The First Shot Is Silence
Every Somali political catastrophe followed the same script:
Leaders stop talking.
They retreat to clan fortresses.
Mobilization replaces negotiation.
Guns replace words.
When dialogue collapses, militias become the language of politics.
Today, the alternative to continuous engagement between the Federal Government and Federal Member States is not “political advantage.”
It is fragmentation.
And fragmentation in Somalia does not mean decentralization.
It means dismemberment.
What Happens If Talks Collapse?
If leaders walk away now, three predictable disasters follow:
1️⃣ Civil Conflict → Fragmentation → Dismemberment
The federal compact—already fragile—will snap.
States will entrench.
The center will overreach.
Security forces will splinter along loyalty lines.
We have seen this movie before. It ends with checkpoints, displacement, and clan-based war economies.
Somalia cannot survive another internal implosion.
2️⃣ Foreign Intervention → Sovereignty Evaporates
When Somalis fail to manage Somali politics, others step in.
The international community, regional powers, and security actors already monitor every tremor in Mogadishu.
Look at Halane Camp — it has long been the diplomatic nerve center. When political actors refuse dialogue, shuttle diplomacy intensifies.
And once foreign capitals begin dictating timelines, frameworks, and outcomes, sovereignty becomes ceremonial.
No Somali nationalist should want that.
3️⃣ Permanent Dissolution of What Remains
Somalia today is not the Somalia of 1991. It is weaker in cohesion and stronger in fragmentation.
If talks collapse now:
The constitution becomes meaningless.
Federal institutions become decorative.
Regions accelerate political divergence.
De facto separation becomes normalized.
Reunification will become mathematically impossible.
Playing With Fire
Somali leaders are behaving like gamblers who think the house will never burn.
They underestimate the volatility of:
Armed actors
Clan grievances
Economic despair
Youth unemployment
External opportunism
This is political gasoline.
And they are striking matches.
President Hassan Sheikh Must Understand the Stakes
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must grasp the existential danger.
If he believes brinkmanship strengthens him, he is mistaken.
If he believes political isolation of rivals will consolidate authority, he is dangerously naïve.
If he believes he can dictate venues, timelines, and frameworks without eroding trust, he misunderstands federal politics.
History will not judge who “won” this negotiation.
History will judge who prevented collapse.
The Federal Member States Also Carry Responsibility
Dialogue is not a favor. It is an obligation.
Withdrawal from engagement may feel morally justified — but strategic silence empowers escalation.
No leader will escape the consequences of breakdown.
If Mogadishu burns, Garowe will not be safe.
If Kismayo destabilizes, Mogadishu will not be stable.
Somalia’s crisis is interconnected.
Talk — Even If You Hate Each Other
You do not need trust to talk.
You need self-preservation.
You do not need friendship to negotiate.
You need realism.
Somalia’s leaders may not share meals.
They may not share ideology.
But they must share a table.
Keep talking:
About the constitution.
About electoral modalities.
About mandates.
About power-sharing.
About security transitions.
Talk until compromise becomes inevitable.
Because the alternative is not victory.
It is mutual destruction.
A Final Warning
Civil war is not an abstract threat.
It is:
Markets empty.
Schools closed.
Families displaced.
Youth radicalized.
Borders hardened.
Foreign boots multiplied.
It is the burial of another generation’s hope.
If Somali leaders stop talking now, they will not be remembered as tacticians.
They will be remembered as arsonists.
The fire is already lit.
The only extinguisher left is dialogue.
Keep talking.