WAPMEN EDITORIAL ESSAY
There are visits.
There are negotiations.
And then there are political coronations.
When Said Abdullahi Deni landed in Mogadishu after years of calculated distance, some naïve observers whispered: “Ah, reconciliation! Constitutional dialogue! Federal healing!”
But in Somalia, dear reader, nothing is ever that innocent.
Let us ask the forbidden question:
Did Deni go to Mogadishu to fix Somalia — or to fix 2026?
The Man Who Couldn’t Return
For years, Deni kept Mogadishu at arm’s length. The capital was portrayed as a hostile “city-state.” Political isolation became a badge of defiance. Distance became dignity.
He couldn’t simply stroll back without political cost. Somali politics is theatre; optics are everything. You don’t disappear for years and casually reappear at Villa Somalia like a returning tourist.
He needed a cover.
And what better cover than negotiations with Hassan Sheikh Mohamud over the constitutional and electoral crisis?

Brilliant.

Negotiations or Networking?
The official script says:
“Deni is in Mogadishu to resolve the constitutional impasse and stabilize federal relations.”
But let us examine the choreography:
A steady stream of political heavyweights visiting his residence inside the airport compound.
Closed-door meetings with MPs, ex-ministers, power brokers, financiers.
Quiet outreach to communities beyond Puntland’s traditional base.
Strategic appearances designed to project maturity, confidence, and inevitability.
This is not a crisis resolution.
This is a presidential mapping.
While the public debates federal articles and electoral models, Deni is counting votes, alliances, and clan arithmetic.
The Perfect Excuse
Meeting Hassan Sheikh offers three priceless advantages:
1️⃣ Respectability
He looks statesmanlike. Responsible. National.
2️⃣ Legitimacy
He re-enters Mogadishu not as a supplicant but as a negotiating equal.
3️⃣ Campaign Launchpad
He meets “who is who” of the political establishment under the umbrella of national dialogue.
In Somali politics, you don’t declare a campaign.
You accidentally build one.

Hassan Sheikh’s Calculated Tolerance
Let us not pretend Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is unaware.
The Federal President understands the game. By welcoming Deni, he:
Projects inclusivity.
Neutralizes confrontation.
Monitors his rival up close.
Buys time.
In Mogadishu, rivals shake hands while measuring each other’s shadows.
The Airport Compound Presidency
One cannot ignore the symbolism.
Power in Somalia today does not fully reside inside Villa Somalia. It circulates in the airport compound, under the watchful gaze of diplomats, security contractors, and international observers.
Deni positioning himself there is not accidental. It sends a message:
“I am not a regional president visiting the capital.
I am a national contender operating at the center of gravity.”
Face Saved, Campaign Activated
Let us be blunt.
Deni could not afford to return to Mogadishu merely to “talk.” That would look like surrender after years of federal confrontation.
But returning as a constitutional negotiator?
That looks like leadership.
Returning while quietly building alliances for 2026?
That looks like strategy.
The negotiations provide cover.
The cover provides access.
The access provides momentum.
The Irony of Somali Politics
In Somalia:
Elections begin years before they are announced.
Negotiations double as campaigns.
Rivals cooperate while preparing to eliminate each other politically.
The public hears “constitutional crisis.”
Politicians hear “opportunity.”
The Real Question
The issue is not whether Deni is campaigning.
Of course he is.
The real question is whether he has finally mastered Mogadishu’s intricate chessboard — the clan balances, donor whispers, Halane diplomacy, and parliamentary arithmetic that defeated him in 2022.
If this Mogadishu visit is merely symbolic, it will fade.
If it is strategic, 2026 may already be in motion.

WDM Verdict
This is not a pilgrimage.
It is not reconciliation alone.
It is not surrender.
It is positioning.
And in Somalia’s political theatre, positioning is everything.
The capital is no longer just a battlefield.
It is a campaign headquarters in disguise.
2026 does not start with a declaration.
It starts with a handshake.
And that handshake has already happened.

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