This is where and when we had established Southwest Somalia in 2001. After that, SRRC (SOMALI RECONCILIATION and RECONSTRUCTION COUNCIL), a council of Somali warlords, was established to oppose TNG of AbdulQassin Salad Hassan, who was crowned in Arta (Djibouti) Conference in 2000. You have that story in our Dhaxalreeb videos, 2025.

The Illusion of Peace in the “Second Republic“

Two decades after the establishment of the Second Somali Republic through the 2004 Transitional Federal Charter, the promise of a unified, federal Somalia remains tragically unfulfilled. The official narrative would have us believe that the civil war belongs to the past, that the federal system is steadily consolidating, and that national reconciliation is underway. This narrative is a dangerous fiction. The reality is that Somalia’s war is not over; it has merely evolved. The frontline has shifted from overt clan warfare to a more insidious conflict waged within the very institutions meant to foster peace—a conflict characterized by a systematic dismantling of the federal constitution, a leadership class addicted to a dysfunctional city-state model, and a performative politics that substitutes substance for spectacle. The continuous failure of the Federal Government is not a flaw in the federal design, but the direct consequence of presidents who wear the title of “federal” leader while their actions are guided by a centralist, strong-man mentality that has already proven catastrophic in Somalia’s history.

The Constitutional Façade: A Charter Honored in the Breach

The Provisional Constitution of 2012 was meant to be the foundational social contract, painstakingly designed to rectify the historical grievances born from over-centralization that fueled the 1991 state collapse. It established a federal system to balance power between the center and the Federal Member States (FMS), safeguarding unity while respecting diversity. Yet, from its inception, this contract has been treated not as a binding covenant, but as a suggestion box from which the political elite in Mogadishu can pick and choose.

1. Constitutional Violations as Policy: The constitution explicitly defines Somalia as “an indivisible federal republic” (Art. 1) and mandates power-sharing. In practice, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) routinely usurps state prerogatives over security, taxation, and resources, rendering the Intergovernmental Relations Framework (Art. 51) and the Constitutional Court (Art. 109) deliberately dormant. This creates a legal vacuum where intergovernmental disputes fester without impartial arbitration. This is not an implementation failure; it is a strategy of deliberate institutional paralysis.
2. The Land Grabs and Human Cost: The most visceral betrayal of the constitution is seen in the violent forced evictions plaguing Mogadishu. Critics and a coalition of lawmakers have directly accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of authorizing the sale of public lands without due process, leading to the forceful eviction of thousands of poor and displaced families. These actions, allegedly enriching the president’s inner circle while displacing citizens, violate constitutional guarantees of property rights (Articles 25, 27) and the state’s duty to protect citizen welfare (Articles 10, 12). The result is a humanitarian crisis and a stark confirmation that for the powerful in Villa Somalia, the constitution is merely parchment.

The Security Theater: Militants Advance as Leaders Play Politics

The devastating human cost of this governance failure is most apparent in the ongoing military conflict. While the government engages in political theatrics, the threat from Al-Shabaab remains potent and deadly.

Table: Selected Al-Shabaab Attacks and Operations in 2025

Date Event Impact & Significance
February 20, 2025 Launch of the “Shabelle Offensive” Coordinated attacks on multiple villages and military positions in Middle Shabelle region, aiming to encircle Mogadishu.
February 27, 2025 Capture of Balad Militants temporarily seized this strategic town just 30km north of the capital, storming a military base and freeing prisoners.
March 18, 2025 Assassination Attempt on the President A roadside bombing targeted President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s entourage near Villa Somalia, a brazen attack he narrowly survived.
June 2, 2025 Seizure of Hawadley Al-Shabaab took control of a village 91km northeast of Mogadishu after Burundian AUSSOM forces withdrew from a strategic base.

This relentless insurgency persists precisely because political energy is diverted. As the opposition “National Salvation Forum” has stated, political disputes and mismanagement in Mogadishu have directly distracted from defeating Al-Shabaab. The government is simultaneously fighting an insurgency and a political war of its own making, and it is failing on both fronts.

The Failed Promise of Reconciliation and the Rise of Confederal Options

The profound failure to implement a genuine federal system has bred a dangerous new cynicism, pushing some regions to consider even more radical and disuniting solutions.

1.  The Mirage of National Reconciliation: The 2017 National Reconciliation Framework (NRF) was launched with grand promises of being a “Somali-led and supported effort – for the people and by the people”. It recognized that past conferences, dominated by politicians and military leaders, had failed because they were not inclusive, community-based processes. Yet, this initiative too has been undermined by the same lack of political will. True reconciliation requires dealing with the past and building trust in institutions—a prospect impossible when those institutions are actively being weaponized.
2. The Lure of Confederalism: In this vacuum of legitimate federal governance, the idea of confederalism has emerged as a provocative alternative, most notably proposed by Puntland’s intellectuals. This model, which would reduce the FGS to a nominal authority and grant near-full sovereignty to member states, is a symptom of terminal frustration.

The “Never-Ending Circus” and the Mentality of Failure

The core of Somalia’s crisis is not structural; it is a crisis of character and mentality within the political class. The governance of Somalia has been described as a “never-ending circus” at Villa Somalia, a theatrical production in its fifth encore where the script is tired and the audience is ignored. The Federal Parliament often acts as a rubber stamp, while the opposition mobilizes through press releases rather than popular action.

This spectacle is powered by a regressive political mentality that is fundamentally at odds with a modern federal state:

1. The City-State Delusion: Somalia’s presidents, despite their titles, have failed to transition from the mindset of a Mayor of Mogadishu to that of a national leader. They cling to the illusion that governing the capital is synonymous with governing the nation, treating federal member states as rebellious districts rather than constitutional partners. This is the same strong-man mentality that led to the state’s initial collapse, now repackaged in a federal guise.
2. The Zero-Sum Trap: The political elite operates in a zero-sum game, where one leader’s gain must be another’s loss. As noted by analysts, “Somalia’s greatest obstacle is not structural or financial. It is the refusal of its political class to rise above a zero-sum mindset”. This mentality sacrifices long-term national cohesion for short-term political points, making the cooperation and compromise essential for federalism impossible.

Conclusion: The Stubborn Reality and the Path Not Taken

Somalia stands at a precipice. The “Second Republic” is failing not because federalism is unworkable, but because it has been systematically sabotaged from within. The solution is not another grand constitutional overhaul. The solution is a fundamental reckoning with reality.

Until Somalia’s leaders—and the citizens who enable them—accept the de facto situation on the ground that emerged from the civil war, a reality of diverse regional identities and interests that demand a genuine power-sharing arrangement, nothing will change. The path forward is not mysterious. It requires:

1. A return to constitutional order, operationalizing the dormant institutions like the Constitutional Court and respecting the distribution of powers.
2. An end to the political theater and the adoption of a cooperative, positive-sum political culture.
3. A sincere, community-owned national reconciliation that addresses historical wounds rather than using them as political weapons.

The weapons of the civil war may have largely fallen silent, but the war for Somalia’s soul and statehood continues. It is being lost not on the battlefield, but in the corridors of power, through every violated article of the constitution, every evicted family, and every cynical political calculation. The war will only be over when the constitution is more than just ink on paper—when it becomes the lived reality of Somali governance.

https://www.financialafrik.com/en/2025/11/10/the-somaligate-whistleblower-abshir-aden-ferros-decade-long-fight-against-alleged-eu-influence-peddling-is-taking-a-new-twist/?fbclid=IwdGRzaAOBEK9jbGNrA4EOd2V4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHmHfgwAZsxXaqoF_EZZyuA5lXq7ExvRVKCXy7FvELOPLIAkpPQknOE5vzd_G_aem_xvs-uxHrMzGiPacXQ38dhA&sfnsn=mo