A Storm Before the Dawn: Is Puntland on the Eve of Another Regime Change?

WARSAME DIGITAL MEDIA (WDM) EDITORIAL

The signs are unmistakable. The air in Garowe smells of déjà vu — the year is 2000 all over again. Back then, the same shadows moved across the landscape: suspicious invitations to foreign capitals, traditional elders lured to “witness celebrations,” and a slow but deliberate orchestration of political replacement masked as reconciliation. What was once called the Arta Conference now has a reincarnation — this time, in Djibouti again, under the familiar fingerprints of President Ismail Omar Guelleh and his ally in Mogadishu, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Déjà Vu: The Djibouti Connection

It is not coincidence — it is choreography. When traditional elders of Puntland are suddenly summoned to Djibouti “for talks,” when meetings of elders quietly multiply in Bosaso and Garowe, when Hassan Sheikh’s aircraft lands in Djibouti with no public itinerary, the alarm bells should be deafening.

In 2000, Puntland was betrayed by those who went to Arta claiming to represent the Northeast Somalia. They came back as Trojan horses, ushering in a foreign-engineered “regime change” and dismantling the foundations built through sweat and sacrifice since 1998. That same pattern is reemerging — only this time, the threat is more cunning, wrapped in the language of “renewal,” “dialogue,” and “New Puntland.”

The “New Puntland” Trap

Who is behind this phrase — New Puntland? It is not the people. It is the echo chamber of Villa Somalia’s ideological architects — the same Damul Jadiid strategists who undermined SSC-Khaatumo, fractured Jubaland, and now seek to neutralize the last bastion of autonomous federalism: Puntland.

“New Puntland” is not a slogan — it’s a sedative. It’s the language of infiltration, meant to disarm vigilance and weaken political resistance. Those who whisper it are not reformers; they are emissaries of Mogadishu’s centralizing project — a regime whose survival depends on dismantling any model of local autonomy that dares to challenge its illegitimacy.

Foreign Hands, Familiar Patterns

President Guelleh’s Djibouti has always played both arsonist and firefighter in Somali politics. From Arta to today, Djibouti thrives on Somali instability, using “peace conferences” as smokescreens for influence operations. The recent series of Hassan Sheikh’s “consultations” in Djibouti are not about friendship — they are strategic briefings. Something is being cooked, and Puntland is once again on the menu.

If Puntland leadership continues to underestimate the pattern — to dismiss this as routine diplomacy — they are sleepwalking into a trap that history already scripted once before.

A Call to Wake Up

The lesson of 2000 was written in betrayal, but it does not have to be repeated. Puntland’s stability is not guaranteed by its borders — it is guarded by its political consciousness. The moment Puntland allows foreign capitals to dictate its internal dynamics, the spirit of 1998 dies.

Every elder must now ask: Who invited you, and why? Every official must ask: Who benefits from your silence? Every citizen must remember: A state is not lost by invasion — it is lost by negligence.

The battle for Puntland’s soul has begun again — quietly, cunningly, and under diplomatic disguise. Those who built this state must rise once more to defend it, or risk watching it collapse into another Arta-style disaster.

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