By Ismail H. Warsame
In a rare moment of political sobriety, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madoobe” sat across from each other in Kismayo yesterday — a meeting many in Somalia’s fractured political scene never thought possible. Yet, instead of welcoming this bold act of dialogue, much of the public chatter — the “political noise machine” of Mogadishu — has chosen to focus on what might have gone wrong, rather than what finally went right.
This meeting, however brief, represents something profoundly important in Somali politics: the courage to talk amidst mutual suspicion and political exhaustion. It is easy to wage wars of words from Mogadishu podiums or clan-based press briefings. It is far harder to sit down face-to-face in a region where power, loyalty, and geography are all contested. Whoever enabled this encounter deserves recognition — for in Somalia, dialogue itself is an act of defiance against the politics of perpetual stalemate.
But make no mistake: the test begins now.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has often been accused — with justification — of treating federalism as an inconvenience rather than a constitutional reality. His administration’s flirtation with the idea of a so-called “New Jubaland,” or attempts to carve out a “North East State” to rival Puntland, would not only destroy the fragile trust earned in Kismayo but would ignite the very tensions he claims to be resolving.
Let it be clear: you cannot unify Somalia by dismantling the federal foundation upon which its fragile peace rests. Any attempt by Villa Somalia to engineer parallel administrations or divide existing federal states from within will backfire politically and strategically. It will not weaken regional leaders — it will strengthen their legitimacy, uniting their constituencies against what they will see as naked centralist aggression.
Moreover, such reckless political experiments — creating new Jubaland, new North East State, or any other artificial constructs — will not create peace or prosperity. Instead, they will turn Somalia into an ungovernable mosaic of fiefdoms, where every faction declares its own “statehood,” and where the authority of the federal government becomes nothing more than a hollow echo. This path leads not to unity, but to the unraveling of Somalia as we know it.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must also understand that the issue at hand is far bigger than Ahmed Madoobe’s political legitimacy in Kismayo. It is not about who controls Jubaland’s port or commands local loyalty — it is about Somalia’s very survival as a state. Every move from Villa Somalia today echoes across the fragile federal system. A single miscalculated decision can either pave the way for a more cohesive federation — or accelerate Somalia’s descent into irreversible fragmentation.
The Kismayo meeting was therefore not just another handshake; it was a test of statesmanship. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been given an opportunity to rise above the politics of vengeance and vindication. If he chooses dialogue over division, and genuine federal partnership over administrative manipulation, history might finally remember him as the man who learned from his own mistakes.
But if he returns to Mogadishu with the old mindset of domination — hiding behind the rhetoric of “reform” while scheming to create a New Jubaland or North East State — then this fleeting moment of hope will turn into yet another episode of Somalia’s tragic political déjà vu.
In the end, the path forward is simple but steep: talk more, interfere less, and respect the federal equation. Somalia does not need another federal member state in crisis; it needs a federal president who understands the value of coexistence.
For once, let dialogue mean more than damage control.
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WDM Conclusion:
The Kismayo meeting should not be dismissed as political theater. It is a mirror showing the possibility of reconciliation — if only the actors involved resist the temptation to break it. Somalia’s survival depends not on creating new states, but on respecting the ones that already exist.
— Warsame Digital Media (WDM)
“Talking Truth to Power.”
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 