Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Ahmed Madoobe, Said Abdullahi Deni and Abdirahman Irro represent the fluid Somali character.
By Ismail H. Warsame
Abstract
This paper explores the paradoxical nature of Somali political and social behavior through the lens of history, identity, and clannism. It argues that the unpredictable alliances and betrayals that define Somali politics are not mere political opportunism, but deeply rooted in the social structure and survival mechanisms of a pastoral society. The central thesis posits that the permanence of clannism, rather than ideology or religion, defines Somali identity and continues to shape its volatile political landscape. The essay examines historical precedents, social anthropology, and political developments to demonstrate how this “fluidity of loyalty” has both sustained and sabotaged the Somali state.
1. Introduction: The Enigma of the Somali Psyche
Somalis have long fascinated scholars, colonial administrators, and political observers for their capacity to shift alliances, reconcile mortal enemies, and reengage in conflict without lasting institutional memory. The paradox of Somali personality lies in this “elasticity of enmity”—a quality that renders yesterday’s enemy an ally today, and tomorrow, a sworn adversary again. This cyclical behavioral pattern, often misinterpreted as political immaturity, in fact, reflects the pastoral logic of survival in an environment where fluidity of loyalty was a strategy for adaptation rather than betrayal.
As I. M. Lewis observes, Somali society is “highly segmentary, egalitarian, and unstable in its political balance” (Lewis 1994, 17). This instability is not an accident of modernity but a structural inheritance of nomadic life. The Somali political personality remains shaped by this anthropology of shifting solidarities—a pattern that modern institutions have failed to discipline or transcend.
2. Clannism as the Permanent Political Identity
Clannism is not merely a social affiliation in Somali life; it is the primary lens of reality. From kinship systems to political representation, economic exchange, and even religious allegiance, clan identity remains the ultimate arbiter. In the words of Abdi Ismail Samatar, “the clan is the only durable political institution that survived both colonial rule and state collapse” (Samatar 1992, 639).
Foreign powers and Somali politicians alike have exploited this permanence. During the colonial partition of the Somali territories, both British and Italian administrators relied on clan rivalries to pacify resistance movements. After independence, Somali leaders continued this practice—repackaging clannism under nationalist rhetoric while reproducing its divisive logic.
The collapse of the Somali state in 1991 exposed this permanent fault line. The central government, deprived of nationalist legitimacy, fragmented along clan lines, producing warlord fiefdoms. As Alex de Waal notes, the Somali civil war became a “clanized anarchy” in which the pursuit of security was inseparable from the assertion of lineage (de Waal 1996, 114).
3. The Political Utility of Unpredictability
Somali unpredictability is not entirely irrational. In a political culture where fixed alliances can be fatal, fluidity becomes a rational survival mechanism. This dynamic explains the shifting coalitions in Somali politics—from the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF) and Somali National Movement (SNM) aligning with Ethiopia in the 1980s against Siad Barre, to Puntland’s fluctuating relations with Mogadishu.
The Somali elite often manipulate this unpredictability to sustain personal or clan power. As Menkhaus (2014) argues, Somali politics functions as a “permanent negotiation,” where no agreement is binding beyond its immediate utility. In this sense, the “Somali personality” mirrors the pastoralist ethos: mobility, pragmatism, and opportunism are virtues in a volatile environment.
4. Irreversible Damage and the Failure of Institutionalization
The repeated exploitation of clan divisions has eroded the moral fabric and collective trust necessary for state-building. Federalism, designed to balance clan interests, has instead institutionalized them. The 4.5 power-sharing formula, intended as a temporary measure, ossified clan identity into constitutional architecture. As a result, political allegiance to the Somali nation remains weaker than allegiance to the clan.
This structural dilemma makes the Somali political crisis not merely a failure of leadership but a failure of social cohesion. Once trust is privatized along kin lines, the national project becomes permanently compromised. The damage, as the thesis of this paper contends, may be irreversible without a radical reimagination of Somali identity beyond clan calculus.
5. Conclusion
The unpredictable character of the Somali personality, long perceived as a defect, is in fact a mirror of the society’s adaptive genius—a legacy of nomadic survival transposed into the modern state. Yet, when exploited by cynical elites and external powers, this fluidity becomes a weapon of self-destruction. Somalia’s tragedy lies in the transformation of a cultural virtue into a political vice. Unless the Somali polity finds a moral equilibrium between clan identity and civic nationalism, the cycle of unpredictable alliances and betrayals will remain its defining curse.
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Ahmed Madoobe, Said Abdullahi Deni, and Abdirahman Irro embody this paradox. Their politics of shifting alliances, pragmatic recalibrations, and strategic betrayals are not aberrations but reflections of the national psyche itself. Unless Somalia discovers a moral equilibrium that reconciles clan loyalty with civic nationalism, the cycle of unpredictable alliances and betrayals will remain its defining curse—and perhaps its enduring mirror.
Bibliography
de Waal, Alex. “Contemporary Warfare in Africa: Changing Contexts, Changing Strategies.” IDS Bulletin 27, no. 3 (1996): 6–17.
Lewis, I. M. Blood and Bone: The Call of Kinship in Somali Society. Lawrenceville, NJ: Red Sea Press, 1994.
Menkhaus, Ken. “State Failure, State-Building, and Prospects for a ‘Functional Failed State’ in Somalia.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 656, no. 1 (2014): 154–172.
Samatar, Abdi Ismail. “Destruction of State and Society in Somalia: Beyond the Tribal Convention.” Journal of Modern African Studies 30, no. 4 (1992): 625–641.
Samatar, Ahmed I. The Somali Challenge: From Catastrophe to Renewal? Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1992.
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