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“All spoils in the sea belong to the King” , a saying in the ancient Bari Region of Puntland State.

Bosaso, Puntland – In a dramatic and high-stakes intervention, Puntland State Marine Forces have intercepted a vessel carrying a deadly cargo: a significant shipment of heavy armored weapons reportedly destined for non-state factions in Mogadishu, and potentially, the fledgling Federal Government itself or Turkish military base in Mogadishu. This seizure isn’t just a routine bust; it’s a stark and terrifying symptom of a dangerous new phase engulfing Somalia.

For decades, the flow of small arms into South-Central Somalia has been a tragic constant, a relentless undercurrent fueling violence even at the height of the Civil War. Mogadishu’s myriad factions are, as reports rightly state, already “armed to the teeth” with these weapons. But what we are witnessing now is fundamentally different, and far more perilous.

The New, Devastating Reality: Heavy Weapons Enter the Fray

The alarming novelty lies in the extraordinary flow of heavy weaponry– armored vehicles, sophisticated artillery, powerful anti-armor systems – now finding its way to the warring factions. This escalation coincides directly with the premature and controversial lifting of the UN Arms Embargo on Somalia. While ostensibly intended to bolster the Somali National Army in its fight against Al-Shabaab, the reality on the ground paints a far bleaker picture.

Instead of strengthening the central state, this lifting appears to have opened dubious routes exploited by clandestine parties. Powerful external actors, regional players with vested interests, and internal spoilers seem to be leveraging the loosened restrictions to flood the volatile Mogadishu landscape with tools of mass destruction. This isn’t reinforcement; it’s a deliberate act of strategic arson.

Puntland’s Dilemma: A Seized Arsenal and Weighty Choices

The seized vessel now sits in a Puntland port, its lethal contents under guard. Its interception by Puntland forces is a significant act, demonstrating both capability and a clear stance against the uncontrolled proliferation threatening the entire Horn of Africa. But the seizure is only the first act. Puntland society is now embroiled in a crucial and urgent debate: What to do with this arsenal?

The options are fraught with consequence:

1.  Destruction: The most definitive, and perhaps safest, course. Destroying the weapons removes them permanently from the equation, sending the strongest possible message against illicit arms trafficking. However, it requires significant resources and technical capability.
2.  Handover to the Federal Government (FGS): A gesture of federal unity? Or a naive gamble? Given the reported destination included factions within Mogadishu, possibly even elements linked to the FGS itself, and the FGS’s perceived fragility and lack of cohesive control over its own security apparatus, many in Puntland view this option with extreme skepticism. Would these weapons simply fuel the very fires they were meant to extinguish?
3.  Utilization by Puntland Security Forces: Argued by some as necessary for Puntland’s own defense against an increasingly unstable south and the persistent Al-Shabaab threat. However, this risks escalating regional tensions and could be portrayed as Puntland itself becoming a stockpiler, undermining the moral high ground of the seizure.
4.  International Custody/Disposal: Seeking UN or AU assistance to take custody and ensure secure, verifiable disposal. This might be the most transparent option but relies on complex international cooperation and logistics.

Beyond the Seizure: A Nation at the Precipice

The debate in Puntland is more than a local issue; it’s a microcosm of Somalia’s existential crisis. The unchecked flow of heavy weapons, facilitated by the questionable lifting of the embargo and shadowy actors, is catastrophically destabilizing. It empowers warlords, undermines any semblance of state monopoly on force, makes large-scale conventional warfare terrifyingly feasible, and ultimately, drowns out any hope for genuine political dialogue or reconciliation.

The international community must look beyond Mogadishu. Puntland’s action has exposed a critical breach. Urgent questions demand answers:

*   Who is behind these clandestine shipments?
*   How are they bypassing what should be enhanced monitoring post-embargo?
*   Why was the embargo lifted without robust, verifiable mechanisms to prevent exactly this scenario?

The seizure in Bosaso is a warning flare. Ignoring the systemic failure allowing heavy weapons to flood Somalia is not an option. The debate within Puntland is a test – not just for its own leadership, but for the conscience of Somalia and its international partners. The choices made regarding this seized arsenal will send ripples across the region. The path of peace requires not just intercepting the weapons, but decisively dismantling the deadly networks that deliver them and demanding accountability for those who enable this descent into potentially unimaginable violence. The time for decisive action, both in Bosaso and beyond, is now. Somalia cannot afford another descent into the abyss fueled by heavy metal and foreign agendas.

19 July 2025 

The escalating tensions in the Dhahar region of Sanaag represent more than a local border dispute. They are a symptom of a deepening crisis threatening the fragile foundations of Somali federalism, fueled by betrayal, overreach, and the Mogadishu regime’s cynical manipulation. The rift between Puntland and the Khaatumo Movement, once allies in liberating Laas Caanood, now risks plunging the region into renewed conflict, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s (HSM) government playing a dangerously incendiary role.

The Foundation: Liberation and the Seeds of Discord
There is little dispute over Puntland’s pivotal role in the 2023 liberation of Laas Caanood and surrounding SSC areas from Somaliland forces. Puntland Darawishta provided crucial military leadership, equipment, and fighters, sacrificing blood and treasure alongside local SSC clans. This victory, achieved through a coalition heavily reliant on Puntland’s commitment, was rightly hailed as a triumph of kinship and shared struggle against occupation. The expectation was that this shared sacrifice would forge a strong, cooperative relationship based on mutual respect for historical ties and administrative realities.

The Betrayal: Khaatumo’s Overreach in Sanaag
Instead, a starkly different reality has emerged. Emboldened, sources within Puntland and local observers in Sanaag contend, by overt political and military backing from Mogadishu, the Khaatumo Movement has pursued a policy of territorial aggrandizement. Its deployment of forces into the Dhahar district – an area consistently administered by Puntland for decades and explicitly within its constitutional boundaries – is viewed in Garowe not as an administrative error, but as a deliberate act of aggression and a profound betrayal.

The bitter irony is palpable: forces representing an entity whose very liberation was secured by Puntland’s intervention are now encroaching on territory Puntland considers its sovereign space. Puntland’s offers of dialogue, reportedly based on acknowledging historical context and existing constitutional frameworks, appear to have been rebuffed, deepening the sense of grievance in Garowe.

Mogadishu’s Malign Fingerprints: Orchestrating Instability
The HSM regime’s involvement is the most destabilizing factor. Multiple credible reports indicate Mogadishu is actively fueling this conflict:
1.  Political Legitimization: Granting Khaatumo Movement formal recognition and status far exceeding its administrative control, directly challenging Puntland’s authority in the SSC and Sanaag.
2.  Military Provocation: The reported deployment of Somali National Army (SNA) units, often under the cover of local militia to support Khaatumo operations in Dhahar is a constitutional grenade. It blatantly violates:
    1. Article 48: Federal Member State security jurisdiction within their borders.
    2. Article 49: The mandate for cooperation and mutual respect between levels of government.
    3. The core principle that the FGS cannot militarily intervene against a Federal Member State on its own territory.

Strategic Objective: Analysts widely interpret this as a deliberate HSM strategy to weaken Puntland, the most robust proponent of genuine federalism and a persistent check on Mogadishu’s centralizing ambitions. Destabilizing Puntland’s eastern flank in Sanaag serves this purpose, diverting Puntland’s resources and attention while undermining its territorial claims. The misuse of local militia forces for this internal political maneuvering also gravely risks further fragmentation of the Somali State.

Consequences: A Tinderbox Ignited
The situation is dangerously volatile:
Risk of Open Conflict: The militarization of Dhahar pits former allies against each other. A single skirmish could escalate rapidly.
Federalism Under Siege: Mogadishu’s actions demonstrate a fundamental disregard for the federal compact. If a Federal Member State’s borders can be violated by FGS-backed forces supporting a rival administration, the entire federal project collapses into chaos.
Al-Shabaab’s Opportunity: Internal Somali conflict is manna from heaven for Al-Shabaab, diverting vital resources and attention from counter-terrorism efforts.
Deepening Divisions: The sense of betrayal felt in Puntland and among its supporters in Sanaag risks hardening clan and regional fault lines for a generation.

WDM’s Call: De-escalation, Constitution, and Dialogue

1.  Immediate Withdrawal  Khaatumo militia and all SNA units must withdraw immediately from Dhahar and other disputed areas within Puntland’s historical and constitutional jurisdiction.
2.  Mogadishu Must Cease Fire: President Mohamud’s regime must halt all political, financial, and military support aimed at destabilizing Puntland and provoking conflict between Puntland and Khaatumo Movement. Respecting Federal Member State autonomy is non-negotiable.
3.  ATMIS Command must immediately investigate the deployment of SNA forces to Dhahar, publicly clarify their mandate, and ensure strict adherence to counter-terrorism objectives, avoiding entanglement in FGS political machinations against FMS.
4.  Return to Constitutional Dialogue: Meaningful dialogue between Puntland and Khaatumo representatives is essential, but must be based on:
    *   Recognition of the existing constitutional framework governing FMS boundaries.
    *   Acknowledgement of Puntland’s historical administration and sacrifices in the region.
    *   A commitment to resolving disputes peacefully within the federal structure, without Mogadishu acting as a partisan spoiler.
5.  International Vigilance: The international community must move beyond passive concern. It must publicly condemn the unconstitutional FGS incursions into Puntland territory, pressure Mogadishu to adhere to the Provisional Constitution, and actively support mediation efforts focused on de-escalation and federal principles.

Conclusion
The incident in Dhahar is not an isolated development. It is the calculated result of Khaatumo overreach, enabled and actively encouraged by a Mogadishu regime intent on crippling Puntland and dismantling meaningful federalism. The betrayal of the shared sacrifice at Laas Caanood adds a layer of bitter tragedy. If this dangerous course is not reversed, the consequences will extend far beyond Sanaag, threatening Somalia’s fragile stability and playing directly into the hands of its enemies. Cool heads, constitutional fidelity, and an end to Mogadishu’s destructive meddling are desperately needed before this tinderbox explodes.