In the ever-complex and shifting political landscape of Somalia, few events have reshaped the power dynamics between federal and regional authorities as significantly as the liberation of the Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions. For Puntland State, once considered the most stable and progressive regional administration in Somalia, its failure to reassert full control over SSC after the withdrawal of Somaliland forces has proven to be a strategic miscalculation with far-reaching consequences. This negligence allowed hostile forces — notably elements aligned with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the central Mogadishu regime — to infiltrate, manipulate, and ultimately redirect the political orientation of the region.

A Missed Moment of Strategic Opportunity

The battle for SSC was never just a local uprising against Somaliland’s occupation. It was a continuation of a decades-long resistance movement with deep historical ties to Puntland. The people of SSC, particularly from the Dhulbahante clan, have always maintained cultural, kinship, and political affiliations with Puntland. This was reaffirmed when Puntland sacrificed blood and treasure to support resistance movements over the years — notably during the Las Anod uprisings.

However, after the expulsion of Somaliland from Las Anod in 2023, Puntland inexplicably failed to seize the strategic moment to re-establish its authority and governance structures. This was not merely a symbolic error; it left a vacuum — one that would soon be filled by actors with ulterior motives.

Khatumo’s Rise — and Puntland’s Passive Abdication

Into this vacuum stepped the resurrected Khatumo movement, a faction historically known for political inconsistency and a revolving door of alliances, having at various points aligned with Somaliland and then later with federal actors in Mogadishu. The Puntland leadership mistakenly assumed that SSC’s liberation would naturally evolve into reintegration with the State. Instead, Puntland took a backseat, letting Khatumo activists pursue their own narrow political projects, unmonitored and unaccountable.

This passivity emboldened Khatumo leaders who quickly aligned themselves with Villa Somalia. What emerged was not a grassroots-led administration but a proxy project coordinated by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidency — a regime known for its centralist tendencies and hostility toward federalism as practiced in Puntland.

By refusing to proactively assert moral, political, and security leadership over SSC, Puntland not only lost the upper hand in one of the most geopolitically critical regions of Somalia, it also betrayed the trust of those in SSC who had sacrificed for a Puntland-oriented liberation. The void was filled by opportunists whose allegiances lay not with the region’s long-term interests, but with Mogadishu’s short-term political calculus.

Infiltration by Mogadishu: The Slow Occupation

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration has wasted no time exploiting Puntland’s strategic silence. Through appointments, visits, and selective aid disbursement, Villa Somalia has systematically installed agents, operatives, and anti-Puntland ideologues in SSC. Under the guise of state-building, this central regime is working to dislodge Puntland’s influence from the region altogether.

In fact, the Khatumo leadership’s decision to embrace Villa Somalia has shown itself to be a strategic overreach. Many in SSC have begun to view these moves as nothing more than Mogadishu’s encroachment by proxy — using Khatumo as a convenient façade. Local frustrations are growing. The belief that Mogadishu would bring stability and investment is beginning to fade in the face of increasing central interference, clan fragmentation, and unkept promises.

Strategic Miscalculations of Khatumo Leaders

The Khatumo leadership’s alignment with Mogadishu might have appeared advantageous in the short term, but it is already backfiring. By choosing to provoke Puntland territorially — and alienate one of the few entities that supported SSC militarily and politically for years — Khatumo has committed political suicide.

Not only has this alliance undermined the local legitimacy of Khatumo among SSC residents, but it has also exposed the movement as a puppet of centralist forces that do not respect SSC’s autonomy or its federalist aspirations. The alliance with Villa Somalia has also drawn the ire of traditional elders and prominent figures who now see the movement as compromising the very essence of SSC’s struggle — self-determination without domination from either Hargeisa or Mogadishu.

The Road Ahead: Reclaiming Strategic Ground

Puntland must learn from its strategic error and reassess its posture toward SSC. The region remains central to the geopolitical and security calculus of northern Somalia. Without Puntland’s presence, the SSC region risks descending into another contested zone, fought over by distant federal authorities and political opportunists.

The way forward must include:

1. Re-engagement with SSC communities — not through imposition, but through meaningful consultation and power-sharing arrangements that recognize local aspirations within the Puntland federal framework.

2. Political containment of Khatumo’s overreach, while extending an olive branch to reasonable actors within the movement who understand the perils of Mogadishu’s overreach.

3. Mobilization of traditional elders and grassroots support, to counter the Villa Somalia narrative and reinforce Puntland’s historical support for SSC autonomy.

4. Clear communication to the federal government that Puntland will not tolerate strategic encirclement or federal manipulation through proxy movements like Khatumo.

Conclusion: Puntland Must Act — Now

What Puntland faces today is not simply a loss of territory or influence, but a threat to the very federal balance of Somalia. SSC’s struggle was born out of the aspiration for dignity, self-rule, and resistance against marginalization — ideals that closely align with Puntland’s own founding principles. For Puntland to abdicate its responsibility in SSC is not only a strategic blunder; it is a betrayal of its federalist legacy.

The time to correct this course is now. Puntland must reassert its rightful place in SSC — not with force, but with legitimacy, partnerships, and a vision that transcends narrow politics. Otherwise, it risks becoming a sidelined spectator in a game where it once held all the cards.

By Ismail Warsame
Regional Affairs Analyst and Contributor
July 18, 2025