Prepared for Somali Policymakers, Constitutional Experts, and Academic Stakeholders
May 2025

Executive Summary
Three decades after the collapse of central authority, Somalia remains trapped in a cyclical crisis of political fragmentation, weak institutions, and contested sovereignty. The federal model, formally adopted to distribute power and promote reconciliation, has not delivered the intended outcomes. The persistent gap between constitutional theory and governance practice has produced a stalemate, enabling extremist actors to exploit the resulting vacuum.

This paper proposes that Somali leaders consider a transition from federalism to confederation as a pragmatic response to political paralysis. A confederal framework could provide the necessary flexibility for self-governance while preserving a shared national identity, laying the groundwork for long-term stabilization.

1. Background: Post-Conflict Governance in Somalia
The post-1991 Somali political agenda prioritized five critical goals:

National reconciliation among fragmented communities and regions.

Conflict resolution and peace-making to end violence.

Equitable power-sharing across clans and territories.

Anti-corruption and public accountability.

Reconstruction of national institutions

While some progress has been made, especially with external support, foundational challenges persist due to unresolved political structure.

2. The Federal Project: Ambitions and Breakdown
Somalia’s Provisional Constitution (2012) institutionalized federalism as a compromise mechanism. In practice, implementation has stalled due to:

Ambiguity in constitutional powers between federal and member states.

Mogadishu-centric centralism, often undermining local autonomy.

Irregular recognition of federal member states (e.g., SSC-Khatumo, Somaliland).

Interference in regional elections and internal affairs by the federal government.

Incomplete constitutional review process and absence of judicial enforcement mechanisms.

These systemic weaknesses have led to growing disillusionment among stakeholders.

3. Political Paralysis and National Security Risks

Electoral gridlocks have become normative rather than exceptional.

Security coordination failures have emboldened extremist groups like Al-Shabaab and ISIS.

State capture and clientelism are widely reported in both federal and regional institutions.

Citizens increasingly view both the federal and state authorities as illegitimate.

Without a structural reset, the federation may continue to unravel from within.

4. The Confederation Option: Conceptual Foundations
Confederation offers a flexible model based on voluntary association of sovereign entities, with minimal central authority. This could entail:

Shared responsibilities in foreign policy, national defense, and currency

Full autonomy for member states in domestic governance, taxation, security

Coordinated rather than hierarchical policymaking

Structured opt-in mechanisms for policy harmonization

Comparative Lessons: Historical precedents (e.g., early Swiss Confederation, Senegambia, the United Arab Emirates to some extent) suggest that confederations can serve as transitional frameworks in post-conflict or diverse societies.

5. Policy Rationale for Somali Confederation

Current Challenges of Federalism:

Incomplete and contested autonomy for member states

Centralized implementation bottlenecks

Weak national ownership and political legitimacy

Zero-sum competition among political elites

High potential for conflict due to power centralization

Potential Advantages of Confederation:

Guaranteed and formalized regional autonomy

Decentralized flexibility in governance

Stronger local accountability and legitimacy

Incentives for negotiated cooperation over competition

Reduced conflict through clearly defined and shared sovereignty

6. Risks and Mitigation Strategies

Potential Risks:

Fragmentation into mini-states

Diplomatic isolation of the central authority

Resource inequalities among regions

Misuse of confederation as a step toward secession.

7. Recommendations for Policymakers and Researchers

1. Launch a National Commission on State Architecture Reform, including confederalism as a legitimate option.

2. Fund academic studies and policy dialogues across universities and think tanks to analyze comparative confederation models.

3. Revise the constitutional review agenda to include confederation as a transitional or permanent framework.

4. Engage in inclusive consultations with unrecognized or marginalized regions.

5. Negotiate a compact on shared sovereignty, drawing from international mediation support if needed.

8. Conclusion:

The Strategic Imperative of Rethinking Unity
Somalia’s struggle is not with federalism alone but with the assumptions underpinning its governance model. Confederation does not signify disintegration—it offers an opportunity to rebuild legitimacy from the ground up, turning imposed unity into negotiated coexistence.

Inaction risks entrenching the current deadlock and empowering non-state actors further. Policymakers and scholars must now lead a proactive, evidence-driven exploration of Somalia’s next constitutional chapter.

Prepared by:
Ismail Warsame/ Warsame Digital Media
iwarsame@ismailwarsame.blog
For distribution to Somali Federal Government, Federal Member States, Constitutional Review Committee, Somali Research Community.