Author: WDM
May 2025
Publisher: Warsame Digital Media
Executive Summary
This report examines the recent political direction of SSC-Khatumo, a regional administration representing Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn, which has chosen to distance itself from Puntland in favor of asserting independent governance. While hailed by some as a bold move toward self-determination, this analysis argues that SSC-Khatumo’s leadership has adopted a misguided path shaped by political naivety and manipulation from Mogadishu-based factions. By falling into the orbit of groups like Damul Jadiid and Aaran Jaan, SSC-Khatumo risks political isolation, strategic vulnerability, and internal disillusionment. The report urges a reassessment of current trajectories and advocates for renewed regional cooperation.
1. Introduction
The political experiment currently underway in SSC-Khatumo has been hailed by some as a long-overdue assertion of self-governance. However, a closer examination reveals a trajectory marked by shortsighted strategy, external manipulation, and a weakening of foundational alliances. At the heart of this transformation is a leadership that, while buoyed by grassroots support, has increasingly distanced itself from long-standing partners like Puntland and aligned itself with factions in Mogadishu known more for political subterfuge than regional empowerment.
This report critically examines SSC-Khatumo’s separation from Puntland and its alignment with opportunistic factions in Mogadishu. Drawing on historical alliances, political patterns, and stakeholder dynamics, the report argues that SSC-Khatumo is being lured into a political trap that threatens the long-term viability of its autonomy and governance.
2. Historical Context and Strategic Foundations
SSC-Khatumo originated from a defensive movement aimed at countering Somaliland’s territorial claims over Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn. These territories are demographically aligned with the Darod-Harti clan family, which also forms the backbone of Puntland. The mutual interest in resisting Somaliland created a strong alignment between SSC forces and Puntland.
Puntland provided critical support—military, financial, and diplomatic—allowing SSC to establish a foothold. The relationship, while uneven at times, was based on shared identity and strategic necessity. SSC also benefited from Puntland’s decentralized governance model and international partnerships.
However, internal dissatisfaction grew within SSC ranks, especially over perceptions of marginalization and limited autonomy within Puntland’s structure. These grievances were gradually politicized, setting the stage for SSC’s reassertion of independence in 2023–2024. This period also saw increasing overtures from Mogadishu-based actors, who viewed the SSC-Puntland rift as a means to weaken Puntland’s defiance of Mogadishu centralization policies.
3. The Fall into the Damul Jadiid–Aaran Jaan Orbit
Damul Jadiid and Aaran Jaan are networks within Somali federal politics, often associated with centralized authority, behind-the-scenes influence, and a history of political manipulation. These factions have long viewed Puntland’s assertiveness as a threat to Mogadishu’s control and have sought to undercut it using proxy actors.
SSC-Khatumo’s leadership, either out of political naivety or personal ambition, appears to have welcomed this overture. The Damul Jadiid-Aaran Jaan axis offered rhetorical support, minimal funding, and vague promises of recognition, which appealed to a leadership eager to escape Puntland’s association. In doing so, SSC-Khatumo opened itself up to exploitation by a political faction with no history of supporting genuine regional autonomy.
4. The Rift with Puntland
SSC-Khatumo’s unnegotiated departure from Puntland is framed by its leaders as a move toward full self-determination. However, this move has come at the cost of severing ties with the only regional partner that consistently supported SSC’s struggle against Somaliland occupation of SSC territories.
Instead of negotiating for greater autonomy or formal separation within Puntland, SSC-Khatumo chose a confrontational approach, driven by mistrust and encouraged by external actors. This rift could weaken both entities in the face of growing threats from Mogadishu and Hargeisa.
5. The Federal Government’s Calculated Silence
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has maintained an ambiguous stance toward SSC-Khatumo, apart from legally unbinding statement by prime minister Hamse Abdi Barre through media channels and behind-the-scenes diplomacy, it has avoided formal recognition or material backing. This silence is strategic.
Mogadishu avoids antagonizing Somaliland while encouraging SSC to drift further from Puntland. SSC is effectively being used as a pawn in a broader political game—its struggle romanticized publicly but unsupported in practice. This calculated neglect may eventually leave SSC stranded.
6. Stakeholder Analysis
Internal:
SSC Elders and Youth: Increasingly divided; many support autonomy but question isolation.
Diaspora: Financially supportive but growingly skeptical about long-term strategy.
Regional:
Puntland ally may now feel betrayed and could pivot to a more assertive stance.
Somaliland: Watching SSC’s instability with interest; could exploit divisions.
National:
FGS: Seeks to weaken Puntland using SSC as leverage; offers minimal commitment.
External:
International Partners: Hesitant to engage SSC directly without federal recognition.
ATMIS/AUSSOM: Focused elsewhere; not equipped to mediate SSC’s crisis.
7. Consequences of Isolation
SSC-Khatumo’s current trajectory risks several negative outcomes:
Economic Weakness: No institutional or financial base to sustain governance.
Military Vulnerability: Limited capacity to defend against Somaliland or internal insurgency.
Political Fragmentation: Leadership lacks cohesion; multiple factions emerging.
Loss of Public Trust: Community expectations are high; delivery is low.
8. Possible Future Scenarios
1. Reconciliation with Puntland: A negotiated reentry or partnership based on autonomy guarantees.
2. Federal Recognition Gambit: Unlikely to succeed due to FGS’s weak credibility and Somaliland sensitivities.
3. Long-Term Isolation: SSC becomes a de facto isolated entity, vulnerable to infiltration and collapse.
9. Conclusion
SSC-Khatumo’s leadership has made a critical strategic error by alienating Puntland and aligning with self-interested factions in Mogadishu. While the desire for autonomy is legitimate, the path chosen is fraught with risk, driven by short-term pride rather than long-term viability. Without recalibration, SSC-Khatumo may find itself isolated, under-resourced, and politically adrift. The region’s future lies not in emotional separation but in strategic cooperation with like-minded regional partners.
Timeline of Key Events
2012–2017: Original Khatumo movement
2022: Las Anod protests escalate
2023: Re-declaration of SSC-Khatumo
2024: Unilateral break with Puntland
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 