Review of “Ethiopia’s Red Sea Politics: Corridors, Ports and Security in the Horn of Africa” by Dr. Biruk Terrefe

By Warsame Digital Media I April 2, 2025

Overview
Dr. Biruk Terrefe’s study examines Ethiopia’s strategic maritime ambitions through the lens of its 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, situating this within a century-long quest for sea access and broader geopolitical dynamics. The study, part of the XCEPT program, explores how infrastructure corridors and ports in the Horn of Africa intersect with state-building, sovereignty, and security. By analyzing Ethiopia’s Red Sea doctrine under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Terrefe argues that Ethiopia’s port negotiations transcend commercial interests, reflecting ambitions to become a regional superpower amid perceived encirclement by hostile states like Egypt and shifting global alliances.

Strengths

1. Interdisciplinary Depth: Terrefe skillfully integrates political science, geography, and development studies, offering a nuanced analysis of how infrastructure shapes (and is shaped by) political orders. His focus on the “infrastructure-security complex” highlights the dual economic and strategic roles of corridors like Berbera and Djibouti.
2. Historical Context: The study provides a compelling historical narrative, tracing Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations from imperial-era policies to contemporary agreements, demonstrating continuity and rupture in foreign policy.
3. Multi-Scalar Analysis: By examining sub-national tensions (e.g., Somali-Ethiopian territorial disputes), regional dynamics (e.g., Gulf and Türkiye’s influence), and global geopolitics (e.g., Red Sea security), Terrefe avoids oversimplification, emphasizing the interconnectedness of local and international actors.
4. Methodological Rigor: The use of interviews, public statements, and archival research enriches the analysis, particularly in unpacking Ethiopia’s securitization discourse and Somaliland’s quest for recognition.

Weaknesses

1. Speculative Elements: The classified nature of the MoU necessitates reliance on secondary sources and media reports, leading to speculative conclusions about its military and commercial terms.
2. Ethiopia-Centric Perspective: While the study acknowledges regional tensions, it predominantly centers Ethiopian narratives, potentially underrepresenting Somali and Eritrean viewpoints. For instance, Somalia’s sovereignty concerns are noted but not deeply interrogated.
3. Timeliness vs. Long-Term Impact: The analysis of events up to 2024 offers immediacy but limits assessment of long-term consequences, such as the viability of the Ankara Agreement or Somaliland’s electoral outcomes.

Contributions
Terrefe’s work advances understanding of how infrastructure projects serve as geopolitical tools, particularly in conflict-prone borderlands. By framing Ethiopia’s corridor diplomacy as a “Red Sea doctrine,” he illuminates the entanglement of development and security agendas, challenging traditional narratives of trade liberalization. The study also underscores the Horn of Africa’s role in global maritime politics, particularly amid competing Gulf and Turkish interests.

Critique
While the study adeptly links Ethiopia’s domestic politics to regional strategies, it occasionally conflates economic and security motivations. For example, the claim that Ethiopia seeks to “escape encirclement” is persuasive but could benefit from deeper exploration of economic data (e.g., trade diversification metrics) to balance the security-focused narrative. Additionally, the role of China—a key investor in Djibouti’s ports—is underexamined compared to Gulf states and Türkiye.

Conclusion
Dr. Terrefe’s study is a significant contribution to scholarship on the Horn of Africa’s political economy, offering fresh insights into the interplay of infrastructure, sovereignty, and security. Its interdisciplinary approach and multi-scalar framework make it valuable for policymakers and scholars navigating the region’s complex geopolitics. While constrained by the opacity of recent events, the study provocatively challenges assumptions about landlocked states’ strategies and sets a foundation for future research on evolving corridor politics. By centering Ethiopia’s ambitions, Terrefe invites critical reflection on how emerging powers recalibrate regional orders in an era of infrastructural competition.