REF.: SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) – SOMALIA

Security Update & Strategic Forecast | 26 March 2025
Prepared by Warsame Digital Media (WDM)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The security situation in Somalia remains critically volatile as of 26 March 2025, marked by Al-Shabaab’s territorial gains in Middle Shabelle, direct threats to Mogadishu’s security perimeters, and sustained U.S. airstrikes against ISIS in Puntland. Immediate risks include large-scale insurgent attacks in urban centers, strategic insurgent regrouping, and deepening humanitarian strain.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Key Flashpoints
• Middle & Lower Shabelle: Al-Shabaab has seized Masajid Ali Guduud and Gelgub villages, exploiting tactical withdrawals by Somali forces.
• Puntland: U.S. airstrikes target ISIS in Al Miskaad Mountains, while Puntland forces engage militants amid rising foreign fighter presence.
• Bay & Bakool: Significant insurgent movements suggest resource mobilization and potential offensives.
Critical Developments
LocationEventImpactMasajidAli GuduudAl-Shabaab VBIED + RPG assault overran SNA/local militias (11+ KIA, POWs taken).High – Threatens Mogadishu’s northern flank.Gelgub Village Abandoned by Somali Special Forces (SSF), now under insurgent control.Moderate-High – Exposes weak defensive cohesion.Al Miskaad Mountains U.S. strikes hit ISIS positions; Puntland clashes ongoing.Moderate – Disrupts ISIS but risks retaliation.
2. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Immediate Threats (Next 72H)
✔ High Risk:
• Mogadishu VBIED/assaults (Elasha Biyaha, Lafole at heightened risk).
• Al-Shabaab checkpoint expansion near city outskirts.
• Displacement surges straining humanitarian response.
✔ Moderate Risk:
• ISIS retaliatory strikes in Puntland.
• Government counteroffensive in Middle Shabelle (contingent on reinforcements).
Insurgent Tactical Shifts
• Asymmetric warfare escalation: Targeted assassinations, IEDs, urban infiltration.
• Strategic relocation to Bay & Bakool signals resource consolidation.
3. MILITARY & SECURITY RESPONSE
Ongoing Operations
• SNA/AUSSOM: Reinforcing Jannaale-Afgooye axis (Danab/Gorgor units deployed).
• U.S./Coalition: Sustained drone strikes (ISR focus) against ISIS & Al-Shabaab.
• Local Counter-IED: Priority on Mogadishu-Baidoa supply routes.
Recommended Actions
• Urgent: Secure Nur Dugle to prevent further Al-Shabaab advances.
• Intel Surge: HUMINT/SIGINT to track insurgent movements in Bay/Bakool.
• Cross-border coordination: Kenyan/Ethiopian forces to block militant flow.
4. ASSESSMENT & FORECAST (see item 4 below).

Projected Scenarios
• Most likely: Al-Shabaab presses toward Afgooye Corridor, testing SNA defenses.
• High-Impact/Low-Probability: Full insurgent assault on Mogadishu’s outskirts.
5. CONCLUSION
The Somali government and allies must prioritize:
• Rapid territorial recapture in Middle Shabelle.
• Urban counterterrorism ops to preempt Mogadishu attacks.
• Humanitarian corridor security to mitigate displacement crises.
Failure to act decisively risks ceding strategic momentum to insurgents.
// END REPORT //
Prepared by: WDM Senior Analyst (Mogadishu).