Somalia, a nation plagued by decades of conflict, political instability, and humanitarian crises, faces an existential threat from the militant group Al-Shabab. The possibility of an Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia, akin to the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, is no longer a distant hypothetical but a grim reality that could materialize if the current trajectory persists. The Somali federal government, riddled with corruption and infighting, has proven incapable of defeating the group. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), despite its prolonged presence, has failed to stabilize the country. Meanwhile, Somali leaders remain in a state of self-denial, making grandiose claims about defeating Al-Shabab that starkly contradict the realities on the ground. The status quo is unsustainable, and without dramatic changes, Somalia could witness a catastrophic shift in power.
The Current State of Affairs
Al-Shabab, an Islamist militant group with ties to Al-Qaeda, controls significant portions of rural south-central Somalia and continues to exert influence over key regions. Despite being pushed out of major urban centres like Mogadishu by African Union forces over a decade ago, the group has adapted and remains a formidable force. It generates millions of dollars annually through taxation, extortion, and illicit trade, funding its operations, and maintaining a parallel administration in areas under its control. Al-Shabab’s resilience is further bolstered by its ability to exploit grievances against the corrupt and ineffective Somali government, which has failed to deliver basic services or security to its citizens.
The Somali National Army (SNA), theoretically the primary force tasked with combating Al-Shabab, is underfunded, poorly equipped, and riddled with defectors and infiltrators The federal government’s reliance on clan militias and regional forces has further fragmented the fight against the group, as these forces often prioritize local interests over national unity. The African Union mission, while initially successful in pushing back Al-Shabab, has struggled to maintain momentum due to funding shortfalls, troop withdrawals, and a lack of clear strategy. The planned drawdown of ATMIS forces has only heightened fears of a security vacuum that Al-Shabab could exploit.
Al-Shabab’s Evolving Tactics: A Shift Toward Pragmatism?
Recent reports suggest that Al-Shabab is adapting its tactics to appeal to broader segments of Somali society, particularly those who have historically resisted its extremist ideology. In a notable shift, the group has reportedly abandoned the practice of burning the Somali national flag—a symbolic gesture that had alienated many Somalis who retain a sense of national pride. This change reflects a calculated effort to rebrand itself as a more palatable alternative to the corrupt and ineffective federal government.
Al-Shabab appears to be taking cues from the experiences of other Islamist groups, such as those in Syria, where factions like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have sought to consolidate power by presenting themselves as pragmatic administrators rather than ideologically rigid extremists. By softening its image and focusing on governance, Al-Shabab aims to win over communities that have grown disillusioned with the federal government’s failures. This strategy could prove devastatingly effective in a country where the state has consistently failed to provide security, justice, or basic services.
The Path to an Al-Shabab Victory
The potential for an Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia hinges on several factors:
• Government Weakness and Corruption: The Somali federal government is widely perceived as corrupt and ineffective. Its inability to provide basic services, coupled with rampant corruption, has eroded public trust and created fertile ground for Al-Shabab’s expansion. The group positions itself as a provider of justice and stability in areas it controls, contrasting sharply with the government’s failures.
• Fragmented Security Forces: The SNA and regional forces lack cohesion and coordination. Al-Shabab has repeatedly exploited divisions within these forces, using guerrilla tactics to ambush convoys, overrun military bases, and seize territory. Without a unified and well-equipped national army, the government stands little chance of defeating the group.
• ATMIS Drawdown: The planned withdrawal of African Union forces has raised concerns about the Somali government’s ability to fill the security gap. Al-Shabab has already intensified its attacks in areas where ATMIS forces have withdrawn, signalling its readiness to capitalize on the transition.
• Public Disillusionment: Many Somalis are disillusioned with the federal government and view it as a puppet of foreign powers. Al-Shabab’s nationalist rhetoric, combined with its ability to provide rudimentary governance, has won it a degree of support among disaffected populations.
• Regional and International Apathy: The international community’s attention has shifted away from Somalia, with donor fatigue and competing global crises reducing funding and support. This lack of sustained engagement has emboldened Al-Shabab and weakened the government’s capacity to fight back.
The Implications of an Al-Shabab Victory
An Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia would have devastating consequences for the region and beyond. The group’s governance model, based on a strict interpretation of Sharia law, would result in widespread human rights abuses, including public executions, amputations, and the suppression of women’s rights. Education and healthcare systems would be dismantled or repurposed to serve the group’s ideological agenda.
Regionally, an Al-Shabab-controlled Somalia would become a safe haven for terrorist groups, destabilizing neighboring countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti The group’s links to Al-Qaeda and other transnational networks would enable it to export violence and extremism across borders, posing a significant threat to global security.
Internationally, the fall of south-central Somalia to Al-Shabab would represent a significant blow to counterterrorism efforts. It would embolden other extremist groups and undermine decades of investment in state-building and stabilization. The humanitarian consequences would also be dire, with millions of Somalis facing displacement, famine, and persecution.
Breaking the Cycle: What Needs to Be Done
To prevent an Al-Shabab victory, Somalia and its international partners must take urgent and decisive action:
• Address Corruption and Governance: The Somali government must prioritize transparency, accountability, and service delivery to regain public trust. International donors should tie aid to measurable improvements in governance and anti-corruption efforts.
• Reform and Unify Security Forces: The SNA and regional forces must be reformed, unified, and adequately resourced. This includes addressing defections, improving training, and ensuring equitable pay and equipment distribution.
• Sustain International Support: The international community must recommit to Somalia, providing sustained financial and logistical support to both the government and ATMIS. A premature withdrawal of African Union forces would be catastrophic.
• Engage Local Communities: Countering Al-Shabab requires winning the hearts and minds of local populations. This involves addressing grievances, providing alternative livelihoods, and ensuring that communities are protected from reprisals.
• Strengthen Regional Cooperation: Somalia’s neighbors must work together to counter Al-Shabab’s cross-border activities. This includes intelligence-sharing, coordinated military operations, and efforts to disrupt the group’s financing networks.
Conclusion
The potential for an Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia is a stark reminder of the fragility of the current political and security landscape. The group’s evolving tactics, including its efforts to present a more pragmatic and inclusive image, underscore the urgency of the situation. Without urgent and comprehensive action, the country risks falling into the hands of a group whose ideology and governance model are antithetical to peace, stability, and human rights. The Somali government, regional actors, and the international community must act now to prevent a Taliban-style takeover that would have catastrophic consequences for Somalia and the world. The status quo is unsustainable, and the time for dramatic change is running out.