Somalia’s political landscape has long been defined by instability, insurgency, and fragile governance. In recent years, the leadership styles of Presidents Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland State have drawn scrutiny for a striking administrative commonality: their frequent and prolonged overseas travels. Both leaders’ absences from their respective seats of power have raised concerns about governance vacuums, internal power struggles, and the exploitation of political instability by armed groups and rival factions. This article examines the shared challenges posed by their leadership approaches and the implications for Somalia’s security and democratic processes.

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Frequent Overseas Travels and Extended Absences

Both presidents have spent significant portions of their terms abroad, often during critical junctures for their administrations.

• President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (FGS): Since returning to office in 2022, Mohamud has embarked on numerous international trips, including diplomatic engagements in Turkey, the UAE, Egypt, and Western nations. Critics estimate he has spent nearly half of his current term overseas, focusing on securing foreign support for Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabab and debt relief. While these goals are vital, his absence has coincided with escalating clan conflicts, delays in military operations, and disputes over federalism.
• President Said Abdullahi Deni (Puntland): Deni’s administration has been similarly marked by extended stays in the UAE, reportedly consuming one-third of his term. His absences have overlapped with pivotal moments, such as tensions over Puntland’s opposition to Somalia’s centralization efforts and disputes about local elections. His prolonged departures have left key decisions to deputies and advisors, weakening oversight and coordination.

In both cases, the leaders’ physical distance has created administrative paralysis, with bureaucracies struggling to function without clear directives.

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Power Vacuums and Internal Struggles

Leadership vacuums in Mogadishu and Garowe have fueled infighting among political elites and security actors. In Somalia’s clan-based political system, a president’s presence is often essential to mediate disputes and assert authority.

• Mogadishu’s Challenges: During Mohamud’s trips, reports suggest that competing factions within the FGS have clashed over control of security operations, resource allocation, and negotiations with federal member states. Al-Shabab has capitalized on this disarray, launching bold attacks in regions where military coordination has faltered.
• Puntland’s Dysfunction: In Deni’s absence, groups like Aaran Jaan (a small corrupt power-brokers) and Ilma Diyaano (a mutiny within the security forces) have intensified efforts to undermine Puntland’s stability. For instance, clashes in Garowe and Bosaso during 2023 election campaigns were exacerbated by Deni’s inability to mediate disputes. As a former member of Puntland’s Technical Committee for Federal Negotiations (TCFN), I witnessed firsthand how Deni’s absence derailed critical discussions on the One-Person-One-Vote (1P1V) elections. Without his leadership, logistical and political hurdles went unresolved, leading to my resignation from the committee and the eventual collapse of the electoral roadmap.

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Security Crisis Demands Hands-On Leadership

Somalia remains in a state of war. Al-Shabab and ISIS-Somalia continue to control swathes of territory, and their resilience hinges on exploiting governance gaps. Both presidents have been absent during moments of acute crisis:

• Mohamud’s overseas trips have often coincided with Al-Shabab offensives, such as the 2023 attacks in Galmudug and Hirshabelle. Military officials have complained of delayed approvals for operations and resources during his absences.
• Deni’s stays in the UAE left Puntland’s security apparatus vulnerable to infiltration by militants and clan militias.

The analogy to President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed (1998–2004) is instructive. As a former public servant under Yusuf, I recall how his frequent medical trips abroad created administrative chaos. Each month-long absence eroded his authority, emboldening rivals and paralyzing decision-making. Mohamud and Deni risk repeating this pattern.

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Erosion of Public Trust

Citizens increasingly perceive their leaders as disengaged. In Puntland, Deni’s focus on international networking over local governance alienated constituencies who expected progress on 1P1V elections. Similarly, Mohamud’s globe-trotting contrasts starkly with the FGS’s inability to deliver basic services or protect civilians.

The resignation of technocrats (like myself) from committees and agencies reflects broader disillusionment. When leaders are physically absent, morale plummets, and corruption flourishes.

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Conclusion: Leadership Requires Presence

Somalia’s complex crises demand leaders who prioritize hands-on governance over international engagements. While diplomacy is necessary, presidents can not afford to outsource administration to deputies. The experiences of Yusuf, Mohamud, and Deni illustrate a recurring truth: prolonged absences weaken institutions, empower spoilers, and deepen instability.

For Somalia to stabilize, its leaders must balance global advocacy with domestic accountability. If presidents continue to govern from afar, the voids they leave will be filled by those who exploit chaos—not those who build peace.

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The author is a former member of Puntland’s Technical Committee for Federal Negotiations (TCFN) and a political analyst focused on governance and security in Somalia.
Published in WDM.

WDM EDITORIAL

The political landscape in Somalia is undeniably complex, especially given the historical context of state failure and the challenges posed by both internal and external actors. This analysis brings to light several critical points regarding the future of Somalia’s governance, particularly the dichotomy between confederation and fragmentation.

1. Centralized vs. Decentralized Governance: The failures of Somalia’s centralized government in the past—culminating in civil war, state collapse, and the rise of extremist groups—highlight the unsuitability of replicating the same model. Confederation could provide a framework for regional autonomy and self-governance, which might mitigate ethnic tensions and foster local governance accountability. This decentralized approach could empower local leaders and communities, thereby reducing the likelihood of violent conflict and promoting stability.

2. International Dynamics: As all pointed out, the support from the international community, especially for a centralized regime based in Mogadishu, appears tenuous at best. As geopolitical interests shift—especially among regional players like Turkey, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Egypt—Somalia’s leaders must be wary of the implications these external influences can have on national sovereignty The support from these nations may not be sustainable in the long term, and reliance on foreign backing can jeopardize the independence that Somalis strive to maintain.

3. Security Concerns: The potential for a power vacuum following the collapse of a centralized regime is troubling, as it could open the door for extremist groups to exploit the situation, reminiscent of the rise of the Union of Islamic Courts. Therefore, a robust strategy that involves both local and international stakeholders is crucial to prevent such a scenario and build a resilient state structure that can withstand external pressures and internal challenges.

4. Regional Cooperation: Encouraging a spirit of cooperation rather than rivalry among regional states could create an environment conducive to peace and development. Fostering dialogue and collaboration among Somalia’s neighbouring countries and addressing mutual concerns can significantly contribute to regional stability.

5. Sovereignty and Independence: Ultimately, the priority for Somali politicians should be to cultivate national unity and cohesion, focusing on long-term strategies that reinforce sovereignty and independence. This entails engaging with all community leaders, civil society, and marginalized groups to craft a governance model that addresses the diverse interests within the country.

In conclusion, Somalia stands at a critical juncture where its political leaders must navigate the complexities of governance with foresight and pragmatism. Embracing decentralization, prioritizing national interests, and actively engaging in regional dialogue will be pivotal in achieving a stable and sovereign Somalia. Only through such efforts can the country hope to avoid the pitfalls of the past and build a peaceful future for its citizens.