PUNTLAND STATE, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF SOMALIA AND THE FIGHT AGAINST ISIS AND AL-SHABAB- A GENERAL UNDERSTANDING

The situation in Puntland, where its forces are combating ISIS-Somalia and Al-Shabab with support from the UAE, Ethiopia, and the USA—but without backing from Somalia’s Federal Government (FGS) and African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)—reflects complex geopolitical, security, and intra-Somali tensions. Here’s a structured assessment:

Key Actors and Motivations

1. Puntland State:
   • Security Autonomy: As an autonomous region since 1998, Puntland has long prioritized self-reliance in security, particularly against ISIS in the Cal Miskaat Mountains and Al-Shabab incursions.
   • Political Tensions with Mogadishu: Strained relations with the FGS over resource-sharing, federalism, and political representation drive Puntland to seek external allies.
2. Federal Government of Somalia (FGS):
   • Centralization vs. Federalism: Mogadishu views Puntland’s independent alliances as undermining its authority and fears setting precedents for other regions.
   • Geopolitical Alignments: The FGS leans on Turkey and Qatar (rivals of the UAE and Ethiopia), complicating its willingness to endorse Puntland’s partnerships.
3. External Supporters (UAE, Ethiopia, USA):
   • UAE: Seeks strategic influence via Bosaso port and counters Islamist threats; part of broader Gulf competition with Qatar/Turkey.
   • Ethiopia: Aims to prevent spillover of extremism into its territory and secure economic interests (e.g., port access).
   • USA: Focuses on counterterrorism, targeting ISIS-Somalia to prevent global threats.
4. Critics in Mogadishu:
   • Sovereignty Concerns: Argue that foreign intervention erodes Somali sovereignty and entrenches regional fragmentation.
   • Proxy War Fears: Suspect UAE/Ethiopian support emboldens Puntland’s autonomy, risking prolonged federal-regional strife.

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Security Dynamics

• ISIS-Somalia vs. Al-Shabab: While Al-Shabab remains the dominant extremist group in Somalia, ISIS’s foothold in Puntland (since 2015) poses a localized threat. The Cal Miskaat Mountains provide strategic terrain for insurgent activities.
• Counterterrorism Efficacy: External support has likely enhanced Puntland’s operational capacity, but questions remain about long-term sustainability without FGS coordination.

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Political Implications

• Federal-Regional Rift: Mogadishu’s absence of support exacerbates distrust, potentially encouraging other federal states (e.g., Jubaland) to seek external patrons, weakening central governance.
• Proxy Competition: The UAE/Ethiopia vs. Turkey/Qatar rivalry risks turning Somalia into a theater for regional power struggles, diverting focus from unified counterterrorism.

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International Media and Diplomacy

• Western Coverage: Highlights Puntland’s anti-ISIS efforts, framing it as a frontline in global counterterrorism. This visibility may pressure the FGS to engage but could also deepen its resentment.
• Diplomatic Strains: The FGS’s criticism of UAE/Ethiopia reflects broader discomfort with non-aligned foreign interventions, complicating international mediation efforts.

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Risks and Opportunities

• Risks:
  • Fragmentation: Parallel security structures in Puntland could inspire secessionist sentiments or weaken federal cohesion.
  • Proxy Escalation: Gulf and Horn rivalries may prioritize strategic interests over Somali stability.
• Opportunities:
  • Local Stability: Degrading ISIS in Puntland could improve regional security, allowing economic development (e.g., UAE-funded infrastructure).
  • Model for Collaboration: If mediated, Puntland’s efforts could inspire federal-regional counterterrorism partnerships.

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Conclusion

The Puntland-FGS divide underscores Somalia’s fragile balance between federalism and centralization, exacerbated by external actors pursuing competing interests. While foreign support bolsters Puntland’s counterterrorism capacity, it risks deepening Somalia’s political fractures and entangling the country in regional power struggles. A sustainable solution requires dialogue between Puntland and Mogadishu, aligned international support, and a unified strategy against extremism that addresses root causes like governance gaps and clan grievances. Without this, Somalia risks further fragmentation, benefiting only extremist groups and external powers.