Certainly, she can. Here is why. Historically, any support of Puntland State to Somalia has always been one-sided or one-way street. Whether it was a fight for national independence, defence of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, or re-institution of the failed state. Puntland State has pioneered the current Somali governance system and country’s re-engagement with the international community. There was nothing worth talking about that came from Southern Somalia in the way of re-building this country. All that Mogadishu has offered to this country were sectarian violence, warlordism, corruption, and mismanagement of public affairs. Tribal agenda, sectarian violence, and divisions within will never help Somalia. Instead, Puntland has embarked upon self-government, self-reliance and self-defence, an experience that will enhance not only Puntland’s security, but will aid Somalia in particular, and the Horn of Africa in general to meet the challenges of extremism in the sub-region. Defeating ISIS and Al-Shabab is almost half done in Puntland State, and it is predicted that the fight shall be over before Ramadan. Next, after this campaign against extremists in the eastern mountains of Puntland State is to re-think a new military strategy to get rid of extremists throughout Somalia. Puntland State doesn’t need any permission from anybody to take the fight to extremists anywhere in the Somalia.

Apart from above assessment, let us tune now to various independent security analyses:

1. Puntland’s Capabilities and Challenges

• Security Capacity: Puntland has its own security forces, including the Puntland Dervish Force and the Puntland Security Forces (PSF, PMPF, Darawiish), which have demonstrated resilience in combating extremist groups. They have successfully conducted operations against Al-Shabab and ISIS-Somalia in remote areas like the Galgala Mountains.
• Territorial Knowledge: Puntland’s familiarity with its terrain and local clan networks gives it an advantage in counterinsurgency efforts.
• Resource Constraints: Despite these strengths, Puntland lacks the advanced weaponry, intelligence infrastructure, and sustained funding required for a prolonged, large-scale campaign. Without external support (including from Somalia’s federal government or international partners), its capacity to maintain momentum could diminish.

2. Federal vs. Regional Dynamics

• Political Tensions: Historical friction between Puntland and Mogadishu over resource-sharing, political representation, and security coordination complicates joint efforts. Puntland has often criticized the federal government for corruption and inefficiency.
• Fragmented Counterterrorism: Al-Shabab and ISIS exploit gaps in coordination between federal and regional forces. A unilateral Puntland campaign could leave vulnerabilities elsewhere in Somalia, as militants often regroup across regional boundaries.

3. The Role of Al-Shabab and ISIS

• Al-Shabab’s Resilience: Al-Shabab remains a potent force with revenue streams ($100+ million annually from extortion and smuggling), territorial control in south-central Somalia, and the ability to launch attacks nationwide. ISIS-Somalia, though smaller, has entrenched itself in Puntland’s mountains.
• Transnational Threats: Both groups have regional and international linkages, meaning localized victories in Puntland would not eliminate the broader threat without a Somalia-wide strategy.

4. International and Regional Context

• Foreign Support: The Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS, AUSSOM) rely heavily on international funding and training. Puntland’s isolation from these channels could limit its operational reach.
• Regional Stability: The Horn of Africa’s interconnected security landscape (e.g., Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia, Kenya’s counterterrorism efforts) means Puntland’s success depends partly on regional alliances.

5. The Claim of Victory “Before Ramadan”

• While Puntland has made gains in recent operations, declaring imminent victory is optimistic. Insurgencies are rarely eradicated quickly; they often adapt through guerrilla tactics, recruitment, and exploiting governance gaps. Sustainable success requires not just military action but also reconciliation, development, and governance reforms.

6. Legal and Political Authority

• Puntland’s authority to operate beyond its borders is legally contentious. The Somali Constitution designates security as a shared federal and state responsibility, but unilateral cross-regional operations could escalate tensions with Mogadishu and other federal member states.

Conclusion

Puntland has demonstrated significant resolve and capability in combating extremism, but complete victory without collaboration is unlikely. A cohesive, national strategy—backed by international partners—is critical to address the root causes of radicalization, such as governance failures and economic marginalization. While Puntland’s self-reliance is commendable, long-term stability in Somalia demands unity, resource-sharing, and trust-building between federal and regional entities.