Warlords vs ICU. Is 2021 a rematch of 2006?

By a Staff Reporter

The more things change, the more they remain the same. 2020/1 looks like a rematch of the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter Terrorism (ARPCT), commonly known us Warlords, and the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in 2006. FGS is the Warlords and CPC+ is the ICU.

A keen look at the political stakes in 2020/21 takes one back in memory lane to 2006/7 Warlords vs ICU. There are striking similarities between 2020/21 and 2006/7. Similar in terms of the actors, issues and events. And in terms of composition, ideological alignment and behaviors of the actors. Of course there are a few “defections” here and there but, overall, the teams looks intact.

In team composition terms, the three pro-FGS regional administrations were members of the Warlords alliance (there’s a separate piece on this). The two anti-FGS and CPC (CPC+) are entirely all ICU, complete with their Amir.

In disposition terms, Warlords cut the image of a government since most of them were also members of the TFG. ICU was initially anti-Warlords but soon turned anti-government after routing the Warlords who prevented TFG from relocating to Villa Somalia, Mogadishu.

In terms of issues, the CPC+ is accusing the FGS of repression as did the ICU over Warlords. The difference this time is the public is mostly on the FGS side; regional actors ET and ER, who supported either side in 2006 are now backing FGS. Kenya who was neutral on Warlords-ICU, and UAE are now believed to be allied with the CPC+. Among the IC, although opinion is divided, the most influential appears to be accommodative of the FGS. Hence why FGS withstood post-February 8 CPC+’s illegitimacy tag/narrative.

In sum, 2021 Somalia politics bears a compelling semblance to that of 2006. If the results of the elections will confirm is only a mater of time.