Nabad and Nolool Faction (Farmaajo-Khayre Junta) has re-started fresh factional fighting in the territories of Federal Member States, engaged in forceful toppling of the leaders of Regional Administrations. The hostile operations constitute yet again a direct violation of the Federal Constitution and Peace Accord reached in 2004 on the eve of the establishment of the 2nd Somali Republic. The First Somali Republic had failed in 1991.
Since then, Somali parties to the conflict were hammering out their differences until the current Mogadishu Faction Leaders (MFL) came to power in Mogadishu in 2016 corrupt election with wholesale buying of MPs’ votes with Qatari funds.
The Farmaajo political objective is to dismantle the leadership of Federal Member States before the elections of 2020/2021, installing, instead, loyal governorship-like regimes, thus securing environment conducive to holding sham elections to cling to power.
Already, Galmudugh, Hirshabelle and Southwest states have been neutralized. Jubland is under military action now to topple Ahmed Madoobe, perhaps with Ethiopian military support, to replace Kenyan troops there as AMISOM units, in an intention to capture Kismayo in the process. This military strategy allows Ethiopia to gain access to the Port of Kismayo, the Indian Ocean and other infrastructures, including Kismayo Airport, besides, Port of Berbera is being used by Ethiopia already. This military campaign has to be done now before the election and Gu rainfalls to avoid military vehicles stuck in the oasis of Jubaland.
Puntland would be a hard nut to crack, but not impossible. 21st Somali Military Sector has been re-created and used already against the Galmudugh State to crush President Xaaf and Ahlu Sunnah-wal-Jamaaca leadership opposing factions. These troops, with re-inforcement and logistics supplies from Mogadishu, pose a fatal security threat to North Mudugh and Puntland as a whole, now that they own Southern Mudugh.
A few days ago, Ahlu-Sunnah faction in DusaMareeb in Central Somalia had been ousted in a military coup by Mogadishu Faction leaders.
Now, sketchy advance reports indicate military clashes are underway in and around Balad-Xaawo town in Gedo Region of Jubaland. There are also unconfirmed reports of military actions spilling over to the border with Kenya, forcing Kenyan Defence Forces into high alert. There are reports of casualties and property damages.
Recently, Mogadishu has been accusing Nairobi of meddling into Somalia’s internal affairs.