How to understand the new Somali-Kenyan diplomatic tensions.

I critically think that Kenya is engaged in this escalation based on the following considerations:

1. Kenya is nervously anticipating unfavorable decision by ICJ on the maritime dispute between the two neighboring countries. Kenya has opted to make noises on the issue in advance.

2. Kenya seemed rattled by the recent major international conference in London on oil and gas potential in Somalia. Kenya is trying to intimidate oil and gas companies away from securing concessions of new blocks.

3. Kenya seizes expanisionist opportunities in weak and fragile Somalia. Kenyan new diplomatic offensive is tatamount to extortion and blackmail while KDF ( Kenyan Defense Forces are in parts of Somalia as a component of AMISOM.

4. Kenya, however, has dynamic internal constituencies and powerful legislative House to deliberate on issues, not there to rubber-stamp executive decisions.

5. The Kenyan-Somali constituency, the movement of goods and ideas between countries and within the each country, and multi-level inter-links between the two peoples, especially in trade and commerce are strong enough deterrent against the new Kenyan rhetoric, diplomatic tension and escalation.

I therfore believe that the Kenyan diplomatic campaign will backfire in the end. Somali authorities should try to descalate the situation, but lead an effective and quite diplomatic strategy to counter this national threat.