Resolving the political friction between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Puntland State requires addressing deep-seated grievances over power-sharing, resource allocation, and constitutional interpretation, while fostering trust and institutionalizing cooperative governance. Below is a structured approach informed by Somalia’s political dynamics, federalism challenges, and lessons from similar conflicts:

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1. Address Core Grievances

• Constitutional Clarity:
  • Finalize and ratify Somalia’s provisional constitution to clarify federal-state powers, including:
    • Revenue Sharing: Establish transparent mechanisms for distributing resources (e.g., port revenues, fisheries, oil/gas).
    • Security Arrangements: Define roles for federal and state forces in combating terrorism (e.g., Al-Shabab, ISIS) and managing local militias.
  • Ensure Puntland’s concerns about overcentralization are addressed, balancing autonomy with national unity.
• Resource Management:
  • Create joint committees to oversee natural resource exploration and revenue-sharing agreements (e.g., Puntland’s oil blocks).
  • Adopt models like Nigeria’s derivation principle, where states retain a percentage of locally generated resources.

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2. Institutionalize Dialogue Mechanisms

• National Reconciliation Framework:
  • Revive platforms like the National Consultative Council (NCC), ensuring Puntland’s equal participation alongside other federal member states.
  • Involve traditional elders (Guurti), civil society, and religious leaders to mediate disputes and legitimize agreements.
• Third-Party Mediation:
  • Engage neutral actors (e.g., IGAD, AU, or Qatar/Turkey as trusted partners) to broker talks and guarantee implementation of deals.

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3. Build Trust Through Incremental Steps

• Confidence-Building Measures:
  • Jointly manage critical infrastructure (e.g., Bosaso Port) to demonstrate shared benefits.
  • Cooperate on security operations against Al-Shabab/ISIS in contested areas (e.g., Galgala mountains).
• Symbolic Gestures:
  • Publicly acknowledge Puntland’s historical role in stabilizing Somalia and its contributions to counterterrorism.
  • Avoid inflammatory rhetoric; instead, emphasize shared Somali identity in official communications.

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4. Learn from Past Failures and Successes

• Avoid Past Mistakes:
  • The 2016 Mogadishu Declaration failed due to lack of implementation. Future agreements must include timelines, monitoring mechanisms, and penalties for non-compliance.
• Emulate Positive Models:
  • Borrow from Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism (though imperfect) to balance regional autonomy with federal oversight.
  • Study the Puntland-Somaliland dialogue (e.g., 2014 Tukaraq ceasefire) for lessons on conflict de-escalation.

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5. Strengthen Federalism Through Equity

• Equitable Representation:
  • Ensure Puntland holds influential positions in federal institutions (e.g., Parliament, Cabinet, Supreme Court).
• Development Parity:
  • Direct international aid (e.g., World Bank, EU) to Puntland’s infrastructure and services to reduce perceptions of marginalization.

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6. Mitigate External Interference

• Regional Actors:
  • Counteract divisive roles played by Gulf states (e.g., UAE vs. Qatar rivalries influencing Somali federalism).
• Donor Coordination:
  • Unify international partners (UN, U.S., EU) behind a coherent strategy supporting Somali-led solutions, not competing agendas.

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7. Prepare for Political Transitions

• Electoral Reforms:
  • Ensure Puntland’s buy-in to Somalia’s electoral model (e.g., one-person-one-vote vs. clan-based systems) to prevent boycotts.
• Leadership Engagement:
  • Foster personal rapport between FGS and Puntland leaders (e.g., President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Puntland’s Said Abdullahi Deni).

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Challenges and Risks

• Spoilers: Hardliners in Mogadishu or Garowe may sabotage deals to retain power.
• Resource Curse: Oil/gas discoveries could exacerbate tensions if not managed transparently.
• Security Vacuum: Stalemates risk ceding territory to ISIS/Al-Shabab, as seen in Galmudug and Bari regions.

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Conclusion

The FGS-Puntland rift reflects broader struggles to reconcile Somali nationalism with federal autonomy. A sustainable solution requires constitutional finality, equitable resource governance, and inclusive dialogue backed by enforceable agreements. International partners should support Somali-owned processes without imposing external models. While compromise will be difficult, incremental progress—such as joint security operations or revenue-sharing pilots—can rebuild trust and demonstrate the benefits of cooperation over confrontation. Ultimately, Somalia’s stability depends on balancing the aspirations of its federal states with the imperative of a united, functional central government.