Overview
Mohamed Haji Ingiriis critiques Lidwien Kapteijns’s Clan Cleansing in Somalia: The Ruinous Legacy of 1991 (2013), challenging her central thesis of “clan cleansing” during Somalia’s 1991 clan conflicts. Ingiriis argues that Kapteijns’s work is biased, mythico-historical, and risks reigniting violence by assigning collective guilt to specific clans (notably the Hawiye) without robust evidence. Drawing on personal experience in Mogadishu and cross-clan interviews, he emphasizes the dangers of one-sided narratives in fragile post-conflict societies.

Key Arguments and Strengths
• Methodological Critique:
• Ingiriis highlights Kapteijns’s reliance on interviews from Daarood-affiliated diaspora communities in the U.S., which lack triangulation with other clan perspectives. This selective sourcing skews the narrative, ignoring atrocities committed by the Siad Barre regime against Hawiye, Majeerteen, and Isaaq clans.
• Factual inaccuracies in Kapteijns’s work (e.g., references to mobile phones in 1991 Mogadishu, mislocated historical sites) undermine her credibility. Ingiriis effectively uses these examples to question her rigor.

• Contextualization:
• The paper situates the 1991 conflict within Somalia’s longer history of state-sponsored violence (e.g., the Isaaq genocide in 1988), arguing Kapteijns overlooks this broader trajectory. Ingiriis stresses that clan vendettas predate 1991 and were exacerbated by Siad Barre’s divisive policies.

• Ethical Concerns:
• Ingiriis warns that assigning blame to specific clans without evidence risks perpetuating cycles of retaliation. This ethical stance resonates in a context where historiography is deeply politicized.

Weaknesses and Limitations
• Potential Bias:
• Ingiriis’s critique, while rigorous, occasionally mirrors the partisanship he condemns. His focus on defending Hawiye narratives and dismissing Daarood grievances (e.g., downplaying the 1991 Mogadishu massacres) may reflect his own clan affiliations, raising questions about objectivity.

• Lack of Alternative Framework:
• The critique effectively dismantles Kapteijns’s thesis but offers limited constructive alternatives. A more balanced historiography, integrating multi-clan perspectives and archival evidence, would strengthen his argument.

• Engagement with Scholarship:
• While citing scholars like Menkhaus and Lewis, Ingiriis does not deeply engage with their analyses of clan dynamics or Kapteijns’s responses to prior critiques. This limits the paper’s contribution to broader academic debates.

Contribution to Somali Studies
Ingiriis’s work underscores the high stakes of historical narratives in Somalia, where clan identities shape politics and memory. By exposing flaws in Kapteijns’s methodology, he advocates for nuanced, evidence-based scholarship that avoids simplistic blame. However, his critique would benefit from addressing how scholars can navigate clan biases while reconstructing Somalia’s complex history.

Conclusion
Ingiriis delivers a compelling methodological and ethical rebuttal to Kapteijns, emphasizing the need for balanced historiography in conflict zones. While his critique risks partisanship, it valuably highlights the intersection of academia, memory, and politics in Somali Studies. Future work should be built on this by integrating diverse voices and archival sources to transcend clan-centric narratives.

Introduction
Equitable representation in government institutions is a cornerstone of inclusive governance, fostering public trust and national cohesion. However, Puntland State of Somalia has faced persistent allegations of systemic bias in its civil service hiring practices. Reports indicate that over 50% of state employees hail from just two regions—Sool and Nugaal—with claims that this imbalance stems from the influence of former Vice-President Ahmed Karash and ex-Finance Minister Hassan Shire Abgaal. Despite pledges to uphold fairness, President Said Abdullahi Deni’s administration has yet to rectify this disparity, perpetuating a cycle of exclusion and undermining the principles of meritocracy and regional equity.

Historical Context and Promises of Equity
Puntland’s 1998 charter enshrined power-sharing among its regions, aiming to ensure balanced political and economic participation. This commitment was meant to prevent dominance by any single clan or region, fostering unity in a state historically fragmented by clan dynamics. However, the concentration of civil service roles in Sool and Nugaal—home to key political figures—suggests a departure from these ideals. The alleged roles of Ahmed Karash and Hassan Shire Abgaal in staffing ministries with loyalists illustrate how patronage networks can distort institutional integrity, prioritizing allegiance over competence.

Consequences of Imbalance
The overrepresentation of two regions has far-reaching implications:

1. Marginalization: Communities from regions like Bari, Mudug, Sanaag, Haylaan, and Karkaar face diminished opportunities, breeding resentment, and eroding national unity.
2. Governance Deficits: A bureaucracy skewed toward regional favoritism risks inefficiency, as merit may be sidelined for cronyism. This undermines public service delivery, critical in a state grappling with poverty and instability.
3. Distrust in Institutions: Perceived injustice in hiring corrodes citizen confidence, weakening the social contract and fueling political apathy or unrest.

President Deni’s Inaction: A Missed Opportunity
President Deni’s failure to address this issue raises questions about political will. Whether due to reliance on existing power structures or fear of destabilizing alliances, his silence perpetuates inequality. This inaction not only tarnishes his reformist image but also risks entrenching a legacy of division. By neglecting to implement transparent recruitment policies or audit current staffing, the administration implicitly endorses a system that privileges loyalty over capability.

Pathways to Reform
To restore equity, Puntland must:

• Enforce Merit-Based Hiring: Establish independent oversight bodies to ensure recruitment aligns with qualifications, not regional or clan affiliations.
• Conduct Audits: Review current civil service demographics to identify and redress imbalances.
• Promote Affirmative Action: Implement quotas or incentives to uplift underrepresented regions.
• Civic Engagement: Foster dialogue with marginalized communities to rebuild trust and inclusivity.

Conclusion
Puntland’s hiring malpractices are not merely administrative failures but existential threats to its unity and development. President Deni stands at a crossroads: he can either uphold a status quo that benefits a privileged few or champion reforms that honor Puntland’s founding principles of equity. The choice will define his legacy and determine whether Puntland evolves into a cohesive state or remains fractured by the very inequalities it once sought to overcome. The time for corrective action is now—before disillusionment turns into discord.

Introduction
Muslim-majority countries today present a paradox: once epicentres of intellectual and scientific advancement during the Islamic Golden Age, many now grapple with political stagnation, technological underdevelopment, and rising extremism. This essay explores how authoritarian governance, the clergy’s complicity in suppressing critical discourse, and the stifling of innovation have contributed to this decline. It argues that systemic repression fosters radicalization, necessitating structural reforms to revive intellectual and political agency.

Historical Context: The Islamic Golden Age Between the 8th and 13th centuries, the Islamic world was a beacon of knowledge. Scholars in Baghdad’s House of Wisdom translated Greek texts, advanced algebra (Al–Khwarizmi), optics (Ibn al-Haytham), and medicine (Ibn Sina). Cities like Cordoba (Spain) and Cairo thrived as multicultural hubs of learning. This era was marked by curiosity, state patronage of science, and a synthesis of diverse intellectual traditions. The decline began with political fragmentation, Mongol invasions, and the rise of rigid theological interpretations that prioritized dogma over inquiry.

Contemporary Political Landscape: Authoritarianism and Dynastic Rule
Today, many Muslim-majority nations are ruled by authoritarian regimes or dynastic families (e.g., Saudi Arabia and Gulf States). Power is concentrated in the hands of elites who suppress dissent, often justified under the guise of stability. Elections, where they exist, are performative, and civil liberties are curtailed. The 2011 Arab Spring exemplified grassroots demands for democracy, but its suppression (e.g., Egypt’s military coup) reinforced autocracy. Such environments deter innovation, as fear of dissent stifles creativity and critical thinking. Here, we are not talking about already failed states such as Somalia, Yemen, the Sudan, and fragile others.

Role of the Clergy: Otherworldly Focus and Political Complicity
Religious institutions often avoid challenging political authority. In Saudi Arabia, the Wahhabi clergy legitimizes the monarchy in exchange for influence over social policies. Iran’s theocracy merges religious and state power, silencing reformist voices. By emphasizing piety, prayer, and the afterlife, clergy divert attention from governance failures. This collusion entrenches stagnation, as questioning socio-political structures is framed as un-Islamic, discouraging youth from engaging in secular knowledge or activism.

Societal Impact: Technological Stagnation and Youth Disillusionment
Underinvestment in education and research perpetuates dependency on foreign technology. According to UNESCO, Muslim-majority countries spend less than 0.5% of GDP on R&D, compared to 2-3% in developed nations. Educational systems often prioritize religious studies over STEM (Science,  Technology, Engineering and Mathematics), limiting economic diversification. Youth unemployment rates exceed 25% in nations like Tunisia and Iran, fueling frustration. With legitimate avenues for expression blocked, some turn to extremism, seeking purpose in ideologies that promise empowerment through violence.

Extremism and Radicalization: The Cycle of Repression and Violence
Authoritarianism creates fertile ground for radical groups. Marginalized populations, denied agency, may gravitate toward movements like ISIS and Al-Shabab, which exploit grievances and offer a distorted sense of identity. The U.S. invasion of Iraq and Syria’s civil war exacerbated this, but internal repression remains a root cause. Extremist narratives glorify a mythologized past, contrasting it with present humiliation, thereby resonating with disillusioned youth.

Case Studies: Contrasting Trajectories
• Iran: The 1979 Revolution replaced a secular autocracy with a theocracy, stifling reform. Despite a educated youth, brain drain and sanctions hinder progress.
• Malaysia: A blend of Islamic governance and economic modernization shows potential, though political Islam risks polarizing society.
• UAE: Investment in tech hubs like Dubai contrasts with strict political control, illustrating selective modernity without democratization.

Pathways to Reform
Breaking the cycle requires multifaceted approaches:
• Educational Reform: Emphasize critical thinking and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics), drawing on the Islamic Golden Age’s interdisciplinary spirit.
• Political Democratization: Foster inclusive governance to channel dissent constructively.
• Religious Reinterpretation: Encourage progressive theological discourses that reconcile faith with modernity.
• Economic Empowerment: Invest in innovation and job creation to reduce youth vulnerability to extremism.

Conclusion
The stagnation of many Muslim-majority societies is not inevitable but a product of repressive structures. By addressing governance failures, revitalizing education, and embracing intellectual heritage, these nations can combat extremism and reclaim their legacy of innovation. The choice lies between perpetuating cycles of violence or fostering renaissance through reform.

Introduction
In a poignant Friday sermon at Omar Banu AbdulAsis Mosque in Garowe today, Sheikh Ahmed, PhD, and political figure Ali Haji Warsame delivered intertwined messages of moral accountability and political critique. While Sheikh Ahmed invoked Islamic teachings on ethical conduct, Warsame highlighted Somalia’s notorious distinction as the world’s most corrupt nation, per Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). This juxtaposition underscores a critical dialogue in Somalia: the interplay between individual morality and systemic governance failures.

Sheikh Ahmed’s Teachings: Moral Foundations
Sheikh Ahmed’s sermon centered on a Hadith of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), urging Muslims to safeguard six aspects of their being: the tongue (to speak truth), hands (to avoid harm), private parts (to reject unlawful acts), eyes (to resist obscenity), and a commitment to fulfilling promises. These tenets form a blueprint for personal integrity, emphasizing self-restraint, honesty, and social responsibility. By framing ethical behaviour as a pathway to spiritual reward, the sermon positions individual morality as a cornerstone of communal well-being. For instance, truth-telling and honouring commitments are not just virtues but acts of worship that combat societal discord.

Ali Haji Warsame’s Analysis: The Reality of Corruption
Contrasting this ideal, Warsame cited Somalia’s consistent ranking at the bottom of the CPI—a global index scoring 181 countries on perceived public sector corruption (0 = very clean, 100= highly corrupt). Somalia scores last 180-181, while South Sudan ranks 179-180. This systemic corruption manifests in embezzlement, bribery, and weak rule of law, crippling public services, deterring foreign investment, and perpetuating poverty. Warsame’s critique reflects a grim reality: institutions meant to uphold justice are often complicit in exploitation, eroding public trust and fueling cycles of instability.

The Intersection of Morality and Governance
The dissonance between Sheikh Ahmed’s moral exhortations and Somalia’s corruption crisis reveals a societal rift. Islamic ethics, which condemn dishonesty and exploitation, are overshadowed by a culture of impunity. Corruption thrives not merely through individual failings but via entrenched networks that normalize graft. For example, clan patronage systems often prioritize loyalty over merit, enabling elite capture of resources. Yet, the Sheikh’s sermon implies that ethical revival at the individual level could disrupt this cycle—if citizens refuse bribes, demand accountability, and uphold truth, collective change becomes feasible.

Pathways to Reform: Combining Ethics and Policy
Addressing Somalia’s crisis requires dual approaches. Religio-cultural institutions like mosques can amplify ethical education, framing anti-corruption efforts as both civic and religious duties. Simultaneously, structural reforms are imperative: strengthening anti-corruption agencies, ensuring judicial independence, and promoting transparency in public finance. International partnerships, such as the IMF’s governance benchmarks, offer frameworks, but local ownership is key. Grassroots movements, inspired by moral imperatives, could pressure leaders to enact reforms, bridging the gap between personal virtue and systemic justice.

Conclusion
The sermons in Garowe today reflect Somalia’s dual challenge: nurturing individual integrity while dismantling corrupt systems. Sheikh Ahmed’s call for self-discipline and Warsame’s indictment of institutional decay are not contradictory but complementary. A Somalia free from corruption demands citizens who embody ethical principles and leaders who translate these values into equitable governance. Only through this synergy can the nation ascend from the depths of the CPI and realize the moral vision espoused by its faith and advocates of justice.

Introduction
The relationship between Djibouti and Somalia, two neighbors in the Horn of Africa, is deeply intertwined with geopolitics, clan dynamics, and economic interests. Since Somalia’s state collapsed in 1991, Djibouti has positioned itself as a regional mediator and a haven for Somali elites. However, allegations of undue influence, corruption, and covert control by Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh over Somali governance have sparked controversy. This essay explores the claims of Guelleh’s mentorship of Hawiye leaders, economic manipulation, intelligence agency infiltration, and complicity in refugee deportation schemes while contextualizing these issues within Somalia’s fragile statehood.

Historical Context: Djibouti’s Role in Post-1991 Somalia
Djibouti’s strategic location and relative stability have made it a key player in Somali affairs. Following Somalia’s disintegration, Djibouti hosted multiple peace conferences, including the 2000 Arta Process, which established the Transitional National Government (TNG) led by Hawiye politician Abdiqasim Salad Hassan. Critics argue that Guelleh exploited Somalia’s chaos to expand Djibouti’s political and economic reach. By fostering ties with Somali leaders, Djibouti secured leverage in regional diplomacy and gained access to lucrative ports and trade routes, vital for its economy.

Political Mentorship and Clan Dynamics
Central to the allegations is Guelleh’s purported role as a “mentor” to Hawiye leaders, a dominant clan in Mogadishu. From warlord Ali Mahdi Mohamed (1990s) to current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, these figures allegedly rely on Guelleh’s backing to consolidate power. The claim that Mogadishu’s leadership is “ruled from Villa Djibouti” underscores perceptions of external control. Analysts suggest that Guelleh leverages clan networks to maintain influence, ensuring Somali policies align with Djibouti’s interests, such as countering Ethiopian dominance in the region.

Economic Entanglements: Passports, Banks, and Money Laundering
Somali elites, particularly Hawiye businessmen, reportedly use Djibouti passports for travel, circumventing Somalia’s weak diplomatic standing. This practice, while pragmatic, raises questions about loyalty and dual citizenship. More critically, Djibouti’s banking system is accused of enabling money laundering. A prominent example is Ahmed Nur Ali Jimale, founder of Hormuud Telecom and Salaam Bank, who allegedly operates from Djibouti. Critics claim his enterprises, integral to Somalia’s economy, funnel illicit funds through Djibouti, facilitated by lax financial regulations.

Intelligence Interference: The NISA Marriage Connection
A striking allegation involves Guelleh’s familial ties to Somali intelligence. Reports suggest his divorced daughter is married again to Sadiq John, Deputy Director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). This union could signify Djibouti’s infiltration of Somalia’s security apparatus, ensuring Guelleh’s sway over counterterrorism strategies and political surveillance. Such nepotism risks compromising Somalia’s sovereignty, with NISA potentially serving dual loyalties.

The Refugee Deportation Scandal: Complicity and Corruption
Tensions now flared between Somalia and Sweden over a US$10 million agreement to deport Somali refugees. A Swedish diplomat, Anna Saleem Hogberg, Counsellor and SIDA Representative, has expelled after she exposed the deal, revealing that US$4 million had already been transferred to Mogadishu. The diplomat’s expulsion (declared persona non grata) highlighted the government’s prioritization of revenue over refugee welfare. Critics allege that funds were diverted into private pockets rather than aiding returnees, exacerbating Mogadishu’s humanitarian crisis. This incident underscores broader accusations of corruption within Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration and its collusion with Djibouti.

Implications for Somali Sovereignty and Regional Stability.
The alleged Guelleh-Mohamud nexus reflects Somalia’s vulnerability to external manipulation. Djibouti’s influence risks perpetuating dependency, undermining efforts to build robust institutions. Moreover, the use of Somali refugees as bargaining chips in deportation deals exposes ethical failures in global migration policies. For the European Union, partnering with corrupt regimes to curb migration may violate international refugee protections.
Counterarguments and Complexity
Djibouti’s role is not universally malign. Its mediation efforts have occasionally stabilized Somalia, and hosting Somali businesses aids economic recovery. Passport use may stem from necessity, not disloyalty. However, the lack of transparency in financial and political dealings fuels distrust. While some claims may be exaggerated, the pattern of clandestine dealings demands scrutiny.

Conclusion
The allegations against Ismail Omar Guelleh and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reveal a tangled web of power, profit, and patronage. Djibouti’s influence, whether as a stabilizer or manipulator, underscores the challenges of rebuilding a state amid regional rivalries and clan politics. For Somalia to achieve true sovereignty, it must confront external interference and internal corruption. The international community, meanwhile, must balance pragmatic diplomacy with ethical accountability, ensuring that refugee policies and foreign aid do not entrench exploitation. Only through transparency and institutional reform can Somalia break free from the shadows of Villa Djibouti.

Sources and Further Reading
• UN Monitoring Group reports on Somalia
• Investigative articles from The Africa Report 
• Academic analyses on Horn of Africa geopolitics (e.g., Ken Menkhaus, Stig Jarle Hansen)
NGO reports by Transparency International and Human Rights Watch.

Postscript

Somali money transfer companies (Xawaaladaha) can deposit money legally only in Djibouti, nowhere else in the world, following US strict regulations on money laundering and subsequent war on terror in the aftermath of 9/11. But, Djibouti can not keep these billions of dollars of Somali wealth in the country, so they transfer this huge equity to France and earn huge amounts on the interest. Now, what would happen to this money if something goes wrong in Djibouti? There is a huge risk of losing billions of dollars of Somali capital to French financial institutions forever.

Prepared by WDM/Ismail Warsame
Date: April 2, 2025

Executive Summary

Puntland State of Somalia, established in 1998 as a regional autonomy, has evolved from a modest administration of 9 ministers into a bloated bureaucracy of nearly 100 ministers, deputy ministers, and overlapping security forces. While this expansion initially served to balance subclan interests, it now imposes unsustainable economic and administrative burdens. This white paper argues that Puntland must urgently reform its governance model by adopting a lean, merit-based administration. We propose reducing the cabinet to 12 core ministries, dissolving redundant agencies, and rationalizing security forces to align with fiscal realities and strategic priorities. Such reforms will enhance service delivery, reduce waste, and position Puntland as a stable, self-reliant regional entity.

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1. Background: The Growth of Puntland’s Administration

Puntland’s founding vision prioritized pragmatism and inclusivity. Its original cabinet of 9 ministers reflected the urgency of post-conflict stabilization and resource constraints. However, over nearly three decades, political accommodations to subclan demands and short-term crisis management have inflated the government to nearly 100 ministers and deputy ministers. Concurrently, parallel security structures—often clan-aligned—have proliferated, creating confusion, inefficiency, and fiscal strain.

Key Statistics:

• Administrative Growth: From 9 ministries (1998) to ~100 ministers/deputies (2023).
• Economic Impact: Up to 70% of Puntland’s limited budget is consumed by salaries and operational costs of its oversized bureaucracy.
• Security Overlap: Multiple uncoordinated forces (e.g., Darawish, PMPF, PSF, PIS, and clan militias) compete for resources and authority.

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2. The Problem: Unsustainable Governance

A. Economic Burden

Puntland’s economy relies on modest domestic revenue, livestock exports, and irregular donor support. The current administrative model is fiscally untenable:

• Salary Overload: Bloated payrolls divert funds from critical infrastructure, healthcare, and education.
• Duplication: Redundant ministries waste resources.
• Debt Risks: Wage bills outpace revenue growth, risking dependency on unsustainable borrowing or donor-driven aid projects.

B. Administrative Inefficiency

• Decision-Making Paralysis: Large cabinets delay policy consensus.
• Corruption Risks: Proliferation of offices creates opportunities for graft.
• Poor Service Delivery: Citizens face bureaucratic hurdles to access basic services.

C. Security Fragmentation

Unregulated security forces undermine cohesion and public trust:

• Clan Loyalties: Forces prioritize subclan interests over state mandates.
• Resource Competition: Rival units vie for budgets, weakening counterterrorism and law enforcement.

D. Political Trade-Offs

While clan-based appointments have preserved short-term stability, they sacrifice long-term governance quality. Meritocracy is sidelined, breeding incompetence and public disillusionment.

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3. Proposed Reforms: A Leaner, Smarter Puntland

To secure Puntland’s future, the government must prioritize efficiency, accountability, and strategic focus.

A. Streamline the Cabinet

• Reduce Ministries to 12 Core Portfolios:
  1. Finance & Economic Planning
  2. Interior & Federal Affairs
  3. Security & Defense
  4. Justice & Constitutional Affairs
  5. Education & Vocational Training
  6. Health & Social Services
  7. Agriculture & Livestock
  8. Infrastructure & Energy
  9. Commerce & Industry
  10. Environment & Climate Resilience
  11. Fisheries & Marine Resources
  12. Religious Affairs & Community Reconciliation
• Eliminate Deputy Ministers: Assign technical advisors instead of political deputies.

B. Rationalize Parastatal Agencies

• Merge or dissolve redundant agencies (e.g., combine disaster management and climate units).
• Establish independent oversight bodies to audit performance and spending.

C. Security Sector Reform

• Unify all forces under a single command structure.
• Retrain and redeploy excess personnel into civilian roles (e.g., infrastructure projects).

D. Merit-Based Appointments

• Replace clan quotas with competitive hiring and promotion criteria.
• Create a Civil Service Commission to enforce transparency.

E. Fiscal Discipline

• Cap administrative spending at 40% of the budget, redirecting savings to development.
• Digitize payrolls to eliminate “ghost workers.”

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4. Benefits of Reform

• Economic Relief: Savings from wage cuts could fund hospitals, schools, and roads.
• Faster Growth: A competent bureaucracy will attract investment and aid.
• Social Trust: Meritocracy reduces grievances and fosters national unity.
• Security Cohesion: Unified forces improve counterterrorism and rule of law.

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5. Challenges & Mitigation Strategies

• Clan Resistance: Engage elders and influencers through dialogue; emphasize job creation in lieu of political posts.
• Transition Costs: Seek donor support for retraining programs and severance packages.
• Implementation Risks: Phase reforms over 18 months, prioritizing high-impact ministries first.

6. Conclusion

Puntland stands at a crossroads. Maintaining its bloated administration risks fiscal collapse and social unrest. By embracing a streamlined, merit-driven model, Puntland can become a beacon of governance reform in Somalia. This requires bold leadership, public engagement, and international partnership. The time to act is now.

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To be endorsed by Relevant Stakeholders/Entities
Contact: WDM at iwarsame@ismailwarsame.blog/WhatsApp: +252 90 703 4081

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This white paper is a call to action for Puntland’s policymakers, civil society, and international partners to prioritize sustainable governance over short-term political fixes.

By Warsame Digital Media 
Uncategorized 
April 30, 2019 

Translation from WDM Somali Article:

There is an outcry coming from the waters of the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea along the Somali coastline in Garacad, Obbia, Merka, Kismayo, Berbera, Lasqoray, Bosaaso, and Alula—both cries for help and anger arising from illegal fishing practices. This distress signals a need for assistance and a call to stop illegal fishing, toxic waste dumping, environmental degradation, and the destruction of fish habitats (fish nurseries), as well as local fishermen’s boats and fishing nets.

With thousands of foreign fishermen operating off the Somali shores mentioned above, the lights from their vessels illuminate the nighttime like major cities of the 21st century.

Most of these vessels are engaged in deep-sea fishing, disrupting marine ecosystems, hindering fish spawning, destroying millions of eggs, and leaving behind wide-ranging debris. Local fishermen are despairing as they witness the destruction of their boats and the nets they rely on for their daily livelihoods. They are also concerned about the toxic fish and pollutants being dumped along the shores, along with suspicious containers washing ashore. Many residents of the coastal areas are suffering from strange diseases, skin ailments, and premature births.

Illegal fishing and toxic dumping are known to be the primary causes of piracy off the Somali coastline. This piracy has evolved into organized crime linked to global trafficking.

In recent years, various governments in Somalia and warlords have been issuing fishing licenses to foreign vessels and companies involved in a corrupt system. The Federal Government has now begun to enter the fray by signing fishing contracts with foreign entities; providing licenses that they are unable to enforce or have any expertise to prevent the use of prohibited fishing equipment.

Today, in Garowe, the capital city of Puntland, a conference featuring the ministers of fisheries from Somalia—both Federal and state—was hosted, ostensibly to discuss fishing resources, but they have never spoken about environmental protection.

This is a chaotic situation in which all economic and trade thieves in the world are competing. There is an outcry coming from the Somali sea.

By Ismail Warsame

Ismailwarsame@gmail.com

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/15vhNvPtNp/

Warsame Digital Media | Uncategorized | April 2, 2025

The recent call for national consultations by Somalia’s federal president has been met with widespread apathy and outright rejection, exposing a deepening political crisis. The absence of willing participants underscores the president’s eroded legitimacy and the lack of a cohesive civil society capable of meaningful dialogue. Rather than a sincere effort to address Somalia’s challenges, many perceive this initiative as a desperate ploy to extend a failing mandate. With federal member states refusing to engage, the proposed consultations have only deepened the fractures in Somalia’s fragile political system.

The Collapse of Moral and Political Legitimacy

Effective leadership requires both moral authority and political legitimacy—qualities the current administration has demonstrably lost. Accusations of corruption, electoral interference, and exclusionary governance have tainted the president’s tenure. The controversial term extension of former President Farmajo in 2021 set a damaging precedent, eroding public trust in federal leadership. Today, history repeats itself under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose government faces similar skepticism.

The reluctance of federal member states—including Puntland —to participate in these consultations – speaks volumes. These states have long accused Mogadishu of undermining federalism by centralizing power, contrary to Somalia’s provisional constitution. Without their buy-in, any national dialogue is doomed to fail, as these regions represent critical constituencies that cannot be ignored.

The Vacuum of Civil Society

Decades of conflict, displacement, and institutional decay have stifled the growth of an independent civil society in Somalia. What remains is often fragmented, co-opted by political elites, or too weak to facilitate genuine discourse. In this environment, the president’s call for consultations rings hollow. Without credible grassroots movements, think tanks, or advocacy groups, any dialogue orchestrated by the federal government risks being a performative exercise—scripted to legitimize predetermined outcomes rather than reflect the will of the Somali people.

A Tactical Delay, Not a Solution

Given the overwhelming disinterest in these consultations, many Somalis see them as a stalling tactic rather than a step toward resolution. The president’s term has been marked by persistent insecurity, economic stagnation, and unresolved disputes over federalism and elections. Instead of confronting these issues, the call for dialogue appears to be a smokescreen—an attempt to manufacture the illusion of progress while evading accountability.

Federal member states have recognized this gambit and refused to lend it credibility. Their resistance sends a clear message: superficial talks cannot substitute for genuine political reform.

The Way Forward: Rebuilding Trust and Governance

For Somalia to break this cycle of dysfunction, decisive steps must be taken:

1. Leadership Transition: The current administration must acknowledge its diminished legitimacy and prioritize a fair, transparent transition over political survival.
2. True Federalism: Mogadishu must recommit to decentralization, treating federal states as equal partners rather than subordinates.
3. Reviving Civil Society: International partners and local stakeholders must invest in independent institutions that can foster accountability and inclusive dialogue.
4. Electoral Integrity: A clear roadmap for free and fair elections is essential to ensure future leaders derive authority from the people—not backroom deals.

Conclusion

The failure of the federal government’s national consultations reflects a broader crisis of leadership in Somalia. Without credibility, the cooperation of federal states, or a functioning civil society, such initiatives are destined to collapse. Rather than clinging to power, Somali leaders must embrace genuine reforms that restore trust and lay the foundation for sustainable governance. Only then can the nation hope to achieve stability and progress.

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Cassanelli argues that the Scramble for Africa not only politically divided the Somali peninsula into five territories but also led to an intellectual partition in Western scholarship on the region. Each colonial power (Britain, Italy, France) produced knowledge about “their” Somali subjects within separate linguistic and academic traditions, creating fragmented colonial identities.
Before European colonization, knowledge about Somalis was more cosmopolitan, with travellers from various European nations contributing to a shared (though sometimes flawed) understanding of Somalis as a unified people. However, under colonial rule, research became siloed—British, Italian, and French scholars rarely engaged with each other’s work, leading to disconnected national scholarly traditions.
Though modern Somali Studies has revived multinational collaboration, legacies of colonial-era fragmentation persist, such as limited cross-cultural citation between scholars in different language traditions. This intellectual division had lasting consequences, as colonial researchers relied on biased administrative reports and ethnographies, shaping enduring but uneven interpretations of Somali society.
Key Points:
• Political & Intellectual Partition: Colonial borders created separate scholarly traditions.
• Pre-Colonial Cosmopolitanism: Early travellers (German, French, British, etc.) shared knowledge across nations.
• Colonial Fragmentation: Researchers worked in isolation, reinforcing national biases.
• Modern Legacy: Somali Studies remains influenced by these colonial divisions.
Cassanelli highlights how knowledge production mirrored political domination, with lasting effects on academic and cultural perceptions of Somalis.

The deteriorating state of Somalia’s sovereignty and the unchecked interference of foreign powers like the UAE can not be fully understood without examining the failures of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration. Since his re-election in 2022, Mohamud has pursued divisive policies that have weakened national unity, undermined constitutional governance, and created a vacuum exploited by external actors.
1. Violation of the Somali Constitution & Centralization of Power
• Unilateral Decision-Making: Mohamud has repeatedly bypassed parliamentary oversight and ignored the federal structure, concentrating power in the presidency.
• Erosion of Federalism: Instead of fostering cooperation with Federal Member States (FMS), his government has engaged in political coercion, withholding resources and recognition to pressure regional leaders into submission
• Undermining the Provisional Constitution: The president’s refusal to implement key constitutional provisions—particularly on power-sharing and state formation—has fueled instability and given regional leaders justification to seek foreign patrons like the UAE.
2. Sabotaging National Reconciliation
• Exclusionary Politics: Rather than pursuing inclusive dialogue, Mohamud has marginalized opposition voices, including political factions, clan leaders, and civil society.
• Politicization of Security: The fight against Al-Shabaab has been used as a tool to sideline rivals rather than unify the country, leading to fragmented military operations and reliance on foreign-backed militias.
• Failure to Resolve Somaliland and Puntland Dispute: Instead of engaging in meaningful talks with Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland, his administration has alternated between verbal provocations, military threats and neglect, pushing parts of the country further into the Ethiopia and UAE’s orbits.
3. Transactional Foreign Policy & Surrendering Sovereignty
• Dependence on Turkey & Qatar: While resisting UAE and Ethiopian influence, Mohamud has over-relied Turkey for military and political support, creating a new form of dependency
• The Turkey-Somalia defence pact (2024), which grants Ankara maritime security control, was negotiated without broad consensus, raising concerns about sovereignty.
• Neglecting Somali Stakeholders: Key decisions on foreign engagements (ports, bases, security, and petroleum deals) are made without consulting Federal Member States, deepening distrust.
• Opportunistic Shifts: His government’s sudden policy reversals—such as expelling UAE officials in 2018 (under Farmajo), then seeking UAE mediation later—show a lack of strategic consistency.
4. Consequences: A Divided Somalia Vulnerable to Foreign Exploitation
• Empowering Regional Warlords: By alienating Federal Member States, Mohamud has pushed leaders like Puntland’s Said Deni and Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe to seek UAE support, further fracturing Somalia.
• Loss of Territorial Control: The federal government’s weakened legitimacy has allowed Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland to strengthen their autonomy with foreign backing.
• Foreign Military Entrenchment: The UAE, Turkey, and Ethiopia have all expanded their military presence in Somalia, turning the country into a proxy battleground.
Conclusion: A Leadership Crisis Fueling Foreign Interference
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s authoritarian tendencies, rejection of inclusive governance, and short-term transactional diplomacy have exacerbated Somalia’s vulnerability to foreign manipulation. His failure to uphold the constitution, reconcile with Federal Member States, and pursue a cohesive national strategy has:
• Pushed regional leaders into the arms of the UAE and others.
• Made Somalia a playground for competing foreign powers.
• Diminished prospects for lasting peace and sovereignty.
Until Somalia’s leadership returns to genuine power-sharing, constitutional rule, and independent foreign policy, the country will remain at the mercy of external forces—with the UAE’s expanding influence being just one symptom of a deeper governance crisis. However,  no one now believes that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is capable of fixing this policy quagmire of his own making. In other words, he is done politically and can not be redeemed.

[End of Ramadan. Eid Mubarak!]

Leadership, Advocacy, and Results in Public Service

Introduction
Dear Neighbours,
Canada stands at a crossroads, facing complex challenges—economic pressures, housing shortages, global uncertainties, and the need for strong, compassionate leadership. In these times, Ahmed Hussen has proven himself as a dedicated advocate for York South–Weston, delivering real results in immigration, housing, family affairs, and civil service.
This booklet highlights Minister Hussen’s contributions to our community and Canada, showcasing why his leadership is vital for our future.
Section 1: Leadership in Immigration & Inclusion
Ahmed Hussen, Canada’s first Somali-born Cabinet Minister, has been a transformative leader in immigration, shaping policies that strengthen Canada’s diversity and economic growth.
Key Achievements:
✅ Historic Immigration Levels: As Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship (2017–2019), Hussen oversaw the most ambitious immigration plan in Canadian history, welcoming over 300,000 newcomers annually to address labour shortages and boost the economy.
✅ Faster Processing & Family Reunification: Reduced backlogs, improved processing times, and prioritized family reunification, helping thousands of families settle in Canada.
✅ Support for Refugees: Strengthened Canada’s global reputation by welcoming Syrian refugees and advocating for humane asylum policies.
✅ Fighting Discrimination: Worked to eliminate systemic barriers in immigration, ensuring fairness for all applicants.
“Diversity is Canada’s strength. Our policies must reflect compassion and opportunity for all.” – Ahmed Hussen
Section 2: Delivering Affordable Housing
As Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion (2021–2023), Hussen tackled Canada’s housing crisis with urgency.
Key Achievements:
 National Housing Strategy: Secured $72+ billion to build affordable homes, repair existing units, and combat homelessness.
 Rapid Housing Initiative: Fast-tracked 4,700+ new homes for vulnerable Canadians, including in York South–Weston.
 Support for Renters & Homebuyers: Expanded the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive and introduced protections for renters.
 Local Impact: Advocated for York South–Weston community housing projects, ensuring families have safe, affordable places to live.
“Housing is a human right. We’re working to ensure no Canadian is left behind.” – Ahmed Hussen
Section 3: Strengthening Families & Communities
Hussen has been a steadfast voice for families, youth, and social justice.
Key Contributions:
‍‍‍ Childcare & Family Support: Supported $10-a-day childcare, saving families thousands annually.
 Youth Empowerment: Expanded job training and mentorship programs for young Canadians.
⚖️ Social Justice Advocacy: Fought against systemic racism and promoted inclusive policies in government.
Section 4: Economic Leadership & Standing Up for Canada
Hussen understands that a strong economy means protecting workers, businesses, and Canadian interests.
Key Actions:
 Job Creation: Supported small businesses and workers in York South–Weston through pandemic recovery.
 Trade & Diplomacy: Stood firm against unfair trade practices, defending Canadian industries.
️ National Security: Advocated for policies that protect Canada from global economic instability.
“We need leaders who deliver real solutions—not just talk.”
Why York South–Weston Needs Ahmed Hussen
✅ Proven track record in delivering for our community.
✅ Strong voice in Ottawa fighting for housing, jobs, and families.
✅ Trusted leadership during challenging times.
With respected figures like Mark Carney supporting Canada’s economic future, we need Ahmed Hussen’s experience to ensure York South–Weston isn’t left behind.
Conclusion: Let’s Keep Moving Forward
Ahmed Hussen has been our champion—on immigration, housing, family support, and economic security. On election day, let’s send him back to Ottawa to keep delivering for York South–Weston.
Vote Ahmed Hussen – For a Stronger, More Resilient Future.
Sincerely,
Team Hussen

 

Dear Neighbours,

As Canadians, we face unprecedented challenges—from economic pressures to protecting our national interests on the global stage. Now more than ever, we need strong, experienced leadership to stand up for our community and our country.
Ahmed Hussen has been a tireless advocate for York South–Weston, delivering real results on immigration, affordable housing, and family support. He listens to our concerns, fights for our values, and stands firm against threats to Canadian prosperity—including unfair trade practices and economic uncertainty.

With trusted leaders like Mark Carney stepping up to guide Canada forward, we must also ensure our local voice in Ottawa remains strong. Ahmed Hussen has proven he can deliver for our community, and we need him to continue this vital work.
Let’s keep York South–Weston moving forward. Vote Ahmed Hussen on election day and together, we’ll build a stronger, more resilient future.
Sincerely,
Ismail Warsame
Team Hussen

The UAE’s policies, especially regarding Israel and regional geopolitics, differ significantly from those of other Arab countries. Here’s a comparison with key regional players:

—

1. UAE vs. Saudi Arabia: Strategic Partners but Competitors

Key Difference: The UAE is more flexible and pragmatic, while Saudi Arabia moves cautiously but is heading in a similar direction.

—

2. UAE vs. Qatar: Bitter Rivals with Opposite Strategies

Key Difference: The UAE is anti-Islamist and pro-Israel, while Qatar supports Islamists and engages with Israel cautiously.

—

3. UAE vs. Egypt: Close Allies, But Different Priorities

Key Difference: The UAE is more globally active, while Egypt focuses on internal stability and regional diplomacy.

—

4. UAE vs. Morocco: A More Subtle Approach

Key Difference: Morocco plays a more balanced diplomatic game, while the UAE is more assertive.

—

Final Takeaways: How the UAE Stands Out

Most pro-Israel: The UAE has gone further than any Arab country in normalizing and strengthening ties with Israel.

Most anti-Islamist: It takes the hardest stance against political Islam and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Most economically ambitious: The UAE is leveraging its Israel ties for technological and trade benefits.

More independent foreign policy: Unlike some Arab states that depend on the U.S., the UAE is diversifying with China, Russia, and others.

Security Update & Strategic Forecast | 26 March 2025
Prepared by Warsame Digital Media (WDM)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The security situation in Somalia remains critically volatile as of 26 March 2025, marked by Al-Shabaab’s territorial gains in Middle Shabelle, direct threats to Mogadishu’s security perimeters, and sustained U.S. airstrikes against ISIS in Puntland. Immediate risks include large-scale insurgent attacks in urban centers, strategic insurgent regrouping, and deepening humanitarian strain.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Key Flashpoints
• Middle & Lower Shabelle: Al-Shabaab has seized Masajid Ali Guduud and Gelgub villages, exploiting tactical withdrawals by Somali forces.
• Puntland: U.S. airstrikes target ISIS in Al Miskaad Mountains, while Puntland forces engage militants amid rising foreign fighter presence.
• Bay & Bakool: Significant insurgent movements suggest resource mobilization and potential offensives.
Critical Developments
LocationEventImpactMasajidAli GuduudAl-Shabaab VBIED + RPG assault overran SNA/local militias (11+ KIA, POWs taken).High – Threatens Mogadishu’s northern flank.Gelgub Village Abandoned by Somali Special Forces (SSF), now under insurgent control.Moderate-High – Exposes weak defensive cohesion.Al Miskaad Mountains U.S. strikes hit ISIS positions; Puntland clashes ongoing.Moderate – Disrupts ISIS but risks retaliation.
2. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Immediate Threats (Next 72H)
✔ High Risk:
• Mogadishu VBIED/assaults (Elasha Biyaha, Lafole at heightened risk).
• Al-Shabaab checkpoint expansion near city outskirts.
• Displacement surges straining humanitarian response.
✔ Moderate Risk:
• ISIS retaliatory strikes in Puntland.
• Government counteroffensive in Middle Shabelle (contingent on reinforcements).
Insurgent Tactical Shifts
• Asymmetric warfare escalation: Targeted assassinations, IEDs, urban infiltration.
• Strategic relocation to Bay & Bakool signals resource consolidation.
3. MILITARY & SECURITY RESPONSE
Ongoing Operations
• SNA/AUSSOM: Reinforcing Jannaale-Afgooye axis (Danab/Gorgor units deployed).
• U.S./Coalition: Sustained drone strikes (ISR focus) against ISIS & Al-Shabaab.
• Local Counter-IED: Priority on Mogadishu-Baidoa supply routes.
Recommended Actions
• Urgent: Secure Nur Dugle to prevent further Al-Shabaab advances.
• Intel Surge: HUMINT/SIGINT to track insurgent movements in Bay/Bakool.
• Cross-border coordination: Kenyan/Ethiopian forces to block militant flow.
4. ASSESSMENT & FORECAST (see item 4 below).

Projected Scenarios
• Most likely: Al-Shabaab presses toward Afgooye Corridor, testing SNA defenses.
• High-Impact/Low-Probability: Full insurgent assault on Mogadishu’s outskirts.
5. CONCLUSION
The Somali government and allies must prioritize:
• Rapid territorial recapture in Middle Shabelle.
• Urban counterterrorism ops to preempt Mogadishu attacks.
• Humanitarian corridor security to mitigate displacement crises.
Failure to act decisively risks ceding strategic momentum to insurgents.
// END REPORT //
Prepared by: WDM Senior Analyst (Mogadishu).

SECURITY UPDATE & STRATEGIC FORECAST

26 March 2025
Mogadishu, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Al Miskaad Mountains

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

The security situation in Somalia as of 26 March 2025 is critically volatile, with significant Al- Shabaab territorial gains and intensified military engagements. Notably, Al-Shabaab has captured key strategic locations in Middle Shabelle, directly threatening Mogadishu’s security, while U.S. forces continue airstrikes targeting ISIS strongholds in Puntland’s Al Miskaad Mountains.

2. KEY DEVELOPMENTS

2.1. Strategic Al-Shabaab Gains in Middle Shabelle

• MasajidAli Guduud Village (26 March, approx. 0510 hrs)
  Al-Shabaab militants launched a coordinated attack from multiple directions,
  initiated by a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) and sustained rocket-propelled grenade (B9) fire. Following intense combat against Warsangali Ma’awisley forces, Al-Shabaab successfully seized control of MasajidAli Guduud
  village and its surrounding areas. This engagement resulted in significant casualties and disrupted local security operations.
• The loss resulted in substantial casualties among Somali National Army (SNA) and local militias, with at least 11 confirmed deaths, numerous injuries, and prisoners taken by
  insurgents.
• Gelgub Village (25 March, approx. 2000 hrs):
  Al-Shabaab forces took control of Gelgub village without resistance after Somali Special Forces (SSF) from the Abgaal, Agon Yare community conducted a tactical withdrawal
  towards Nur Dugle village. The abandonment of the village highlights vulnerabilities in local security frameworks, potentially facilitating further Al-Shabaab advances.

2.2. Reinforcement and Tactical Movement

• Following setbacks in Middle Shabelle, hundreds of Al-Shabaab fighters reportedly moved to Bay and Bakool regions, prompting concerns of regrouping and resource accumulation.
• Increased insurgent activity in Area 7, highlighting potential strategic shifts in operational deployments and resource mobilization by Al-Shabaab.

2.3. ISIS Operations and U.S. Countermeasures in Al Miskaad Mountains

• U.S. airstrikes on ISIS positions in Miiraale Valley targeted militant concentrations, aiming to disrupt their operations in the rugged Al Miskaad terrain.
• Continuous engagements between Puntland forces and ISIS militants have led to
  multiple casualties, with an increased presence of foreign fighters raising operational threats.

1. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

3.1. Immediate Operational Risks

• Elevated threat of large-scale attacks within Mogadishu, including VBIEDs and coordinated insurgent assaults.
• Increased risk of insurgent infiltration in urban and semi-urban districts of Mogadishu due to compromised security corridors.

3.2. Projected Insurgent Tactics

• Al-Shabaab likely to escalate asymmetric warfare tactics, focusing on targeted assassinations, sabotage, and urban terrorism.
• Potential strategic shift indicated by insurgent relocations to Bay and Bakool regions, suggesting intensified resource and operational planning.

3.3 Possible Scenarios (Next 24-72 Hours)

Al-Shabaab consolidates territorial control in Middle Shabelle

High
Intensified insurgent attacks and increased difficulty for government forces to regain
control.

Federal forces launch coordinated
counteroffensive operations in Middle Shabelle

Moderate
Possible if rapid mobilization and strategic reinforcement occur from Mogadishu and nearby military bases.

Insurgent IED and suicide attacks escalate within Mogadishu
High
Increased threat to civilian populations and critical government infrastructure.

Al-Shabaab conducts targeted
assassinations against key figures
High
Destabilizes government command
structures and operational efficiency.

Displacement surge due to
heightened military engagements
High
Strains humanitarian resources, potentially increasing internal instability.

ISIS retaliatory strikes in Puntland
Moderate
Increased regional security burden and potential civilian casualties.

Clashes intensify in Bay and Bakool regions
High
Diversion of government military resources away from primary fronts.

Notes

VBIED attacks in Mogadishu
High
Severe

Insurgents maintain open access to logistical routes

Expansion of Al-Shabaab
checkpoints around Mogadishu outskirts

High

Already established presence near strategic suburbs

Effective government-led
counteroffensive in Middle
Shabelle

Moderate

Dependent on availability of forces from Jannaale and enhanced ISR capabilities

Targeted assassinations by Al- Shabaab
High

Aimed at undermining government morale and operational capacity

Increased humanitarian crisis from displacement

High

Compounding existing humanitarian crises in Mogadishu and surrounding areas

Retaliatory ISIS attacks in
Puntland
Moderate

Likely in response to ongoing U.S. airstrikes

Resource competition in Bay and Bakool leading to internal clashes
High

Driven by Al-Shabaab’s need for supplies and reinforcements

4. MILITARY & SECURITY RESPONSE

4.1. Immediate Military Actions

• Ongoing reinforcement and stabilization of key locations around Jannaale and Afgooye with elite units (Danab, Gorgor).
• Rapid-response deployments in vulnerable suburbs like Elasha Biyaha and Lafole to counter insurgent penetration.
• Sustained airstrikes and drone surveillance against both Al-Shabaab and ISIS strongholds to degrade militant capabilities.

4.2. Intelligence and Tactical Recommendations

• Enhanced ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) operations for real-time monitoring of insurgent activities and strategic repositioning.
• Strengthened counter-IED operations along primary routes to mitigate insurgent threats.
• Reinforce local intelligence networks to proactively disrupt insurgent planning and logistical operations.

4.3. Strategic Cooperation

• Ongoing joint operations with U.S., Turkish, and UAE security partners, focusing on intelligence and air support.
• Enhanced regional cooperation with Kenyan and Ethiopian forces to block insurgent movements across borders.

1. ASSESSMENT & FORECAST

5.1. Immediate (26-28 March)

• High likelihood of continued insurgent assaults, particularly around Mogadishu and Middle Shabelle.
• Increased urgency for government and allied forces to stabilize lost territories and secure vulnerable infrastructures.
  5.2. Short-Term (29 March-2 April)
• Persistent risk of insurgent regrouping and consolidation in Bay and Bakool, possibly leading to renewed offensives.
• Anticipated rise in civilian displacement, exacerbating humanitarian challenges and further complicating security operations.

1. CONCLUSION

The rapidly evolving security landscape requires swift and decisive military actions and enhanced coordination between Somali and international forces. The recapture of strategic locations, ongoing suppression of insurgent capabilities through airstrikes, and heightened vigilance in urban security are essential to reversing recent setbacks. Immediate and sustained security responses are crucial to regaining territorial integrity and ensuring long-term stability.

Prepared by
Senior Analyst within the foreign security industry based in Mogadishu [security leaks].
Confidential

Introduction

It is the end of the blessed month of Ramadan, and we feel to sort out a few things that confuse worshippers. In discussions about faith and spirituality, the terms religion and God (Allah) are often used interchangeably, leading to confusion. However, they represent fundamentally different concepts. God is typically understood as a supreme, divine being—omnipotent, omniscient, and omnipresent—who is the creator and sustainer of the universe. Religion, on the other hand, is a human-made system of beliefs, rituals, and institutions designed to worship and connect with the divine. While most major religions believe in one God, the structures, rules, and practices of religion are shaped by human interpretation, culture, and history. Understanding this distinction is crucial for a deeper appreciation of spirituality beyond organized institutions.

God: The Divine and Universal Concept

Across various faiths, God is perceived as the ultimate reality—transcendent, eternal, and beyond human limitations.

• In Christianity, God is the Holy Trinity (Father, Son, and Holy Spirit, another human interpretation due to the fact that Jesus had no human father).
• In Islam, Allah is the singular, all-powerful, and merciful deity.
• In Judaism, Yahweh is the eternal, indivisible God of Abraham and Moses.
• In Hinduism, Brahman is the infinite, formless supreme reality, while personal deities like Vishnu and Shiva represent different aspects of the divine.
• In Sikhism, God (Waheguru) is formless and omnipresent.

Despite different names and interpretations, the core idea remains: God is divine, beyond human constructs, and the source of all existence.

Religion: The Man-Made Institution

While God is universal, religion is the human attempt to understand, worship, and organize devotion to the divine. Religions are shaped by:

1. Scriptures and Teachings – Holy books (Bible, Quran, Torah, Vedas, etc.) are believed to be divinely inspired but are written, interpreted, and translated by humans.
2. Rituals and Practices – Prayers, fasting, pilgrimages, and festivals are structured by religious authorities to foster spiritual discipline.
3. Institutions and Leadership – Mosques, churches, synagogues, and temples are built by people; priests, imams, rabbis, and gurus are human intermediaries.
4. Cultural Influences – Traditions, laws, and customs within religions evolve over time, influenced by historical and social contexts.

Because religions are human-managed, they can sometimes become politicized, corrupted, or misinterpreted—leading to divisions rather than unity.

Why the Confusion Exists

Many people conflate religion with God because:

• Religions claim to represent God’s will, making it easy to assume that following a religion is the same as following God.
• Human beings crave structure, so organized religion provides a clear framework for worship, ethics, and community.
• Power dynamics sometimes lead religious leaders to assert authority in God’s name, blurring the line between divine truth and human doctrine.

However, true spirituality transcends religion. Many individuals experience a deep connection with God outside formal institutions—through personal prayer, meditation, or acts of compassion.

Conclusion

God is the eternal, divine reality worshipped across faiths, while religion is the human-created system designed to facilitate that worship. Recognizing this distinction allows for a more open and inclusive understanding of spirituality. While religions provide valuable guidance, they are not infallible, as they are shaped by human interpretation. Ultimately, the pursuit of God should transcend institutional boundaries, focusing instead on universal values of love, truth, and justice. By separating the divine from the man-made, we can foster a more authentic and harmonious spiritual life.

Introduction
Weak leadership, corruption, and the neglect of national priorities have historically led to the collapse of states and the rise of violent extremism. Today, Somalia—particularly regions like Puntland—serves as a stark example of how governance failures create openings for groups like Al-Shabaab and ISIS. This newsletter examines the root causes of systemic breakdowns, their consequences, and what can be learned from history to prevent further destabilization.
Why Do States Fail? Key Factors
1. Leadership Without Vision
When leaders abandon their constitutional duties—such as ensuring security, justice, and national cohesion—chaos follow. In Somalia, political infighting, clan-based favouritism, and a lack of unified governance have allowed extremist groups to thrive.
• Example: Puntland’s internal divisions over elections and resource-sharing have weakened its ability to combat Al-Shabaab effectively.
• Historical Parallel: The fall of Siad Barre’s regime (1991) was triggered by centralized corruption and exclusionary politics, leading to decades of civil war.
2. The Federalism Dilemma
Somalia’s federal system was meant to empower regions, but poor implementation has fueled distrust between Mogadishu and federal states. Instead of unity, there is constant competition over resources and authority.
• Result: Policy paralysis, delayed military offensives against Al-Shabaab, and disillusionment among citizens.
• Global Lesson: Similar federal failures contributed to Yugoslavia’s violent breakup in the 1990s.
3. Corruption and Injustice – Fueling Extremism
When leaders prioritize personal wealth over public welfare, citizens lose faith in the state. Extremist groups exploit this by offering alternate governance (e.g., Sharia courts, dispute resolution).
• Somalia’s Case: Misused aid money, diverted security funds, and clan-based discrimination push marginalized youth toward Al-Shabaab.
• Broader Trend: The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan was partly due to the Ghani government’s corruption and inefficiency.
Consequences of Neglect
• Expansion of Extremism: Al-Shabaab controls large rural areas and extracts “taxes” even in government-held zones.
• Fragmentation: Puntland and Somaliland increasingly act independently, risking Somalia’s territorial integrity.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Displacement, famine, and lack of services worsen as governance collapses.
Lessons from History
History shows that empires and nations crumble when leaders ignore pressing challenges:
• Ottoman Empire: Corruption and refusal to reform led to its disintegration.
• Libya (2011): Gaddafi’s authoritarian kleptocracy triggered state collapse.
• Soviet Union (1991): Elite self-interest and economic mismanagement caused systemic failure.
Somalia must learn from these examples—or risk further disintegration.
Pathways to Recovery
• Inclusive Leadership: Genuine power-sharing beyond clan lines.
• Security Reforms: Professionalize armies, cut corruption in defence spending.
• Accountable Federalism: Clear roles for FGS and states to avoid conflicts.
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Independent audits of aid and revenue.
• Grassroots Reconciliation: Address local grievances to undercut extremist recruitment.
Final Thoughts
Somalia’s survival depends on leaders choosing national unity over personal gain. Without urgent reforms, the cycle of extremism and state failure will continue—not just in Somalia but in other fragile states facing similar threats.
Call to Action: Accountability begins with civic engagement. Support transparency, demand better governance, and learn from history—before it repeats.

By Ismail Warsame/WDM
March 24, 2025

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Comment below: What lessons should Somalia prioritize first?

WDM PRESS RELEASE

The people of Puntland and Galmudug have long been known for their resilience, unity, and commitment to peace. These two regions, though distinct in their identities, share a common history and a collective aspiration for stability and progress. However, recent provocations and sinister social media campaigns by elements with ill intentions threaten to sow discord and cultivate hostilities between these peaceful communities. It is imperative that the people of Puntland and Galmudug remain vigilant, reject these divisive tactics, and continue to prioritize peace and cooperation.

At the heart of these provocations is the false narrative surrounding the Federal NIRA (National Identity and Registration Authority) and the alleged ceding of parts of Puntland to Galmudug. Such claims are not only baseless but also designed to inflame tensions and create mistrust between the two regions. These malicious efforts are orchestrated by individuals and groups who thrive on chaos and division, seeking to undermine the progress that Puntland and Galmudug have made in building peaceful and prosperous societies.

Social media, while a powerful tool for communication and connection, has also become a breeding ground for misinformation and propaganda. The spread of false narratives and inflammatory content is a deliberate strategy to manipulate public opinion and incite conflict. It is crucial for the communities of Puntland and Galmudug to critically evaluate the information they encounter online and to refrain from sharing unverified or provocative content. By doing so, they can deny these provocateurs the platform they seek to exploit.

The people of Puntland and Galmudug must remember that their strength lies in their unity and shared commitment to peace. History has shown that when communities come together and reject division, they can overcome even the most challenging circumstances. The bonds of kinship, culture, and mutual respect that exist between the people of these regions are far stronger than the attempts of a few to drive them apart.

Leaders, elders, and influencers in both Puntland and Galmudug have a critical role to play in this regard. They must actively promote dialogue, understanding, and reconciliation, and work to counter the narratives of division. By fostering open communication and addressing any grievances through peaceful means, they can ensure that the voices of reason and unity prevail over those of discord and conflict.

Moreover, it is essential for the youth, who are often the most active users of social media, to be at the forefront of this effort. They must use their platforms to spread messages of peace, tolerance, and solidarity, rather than allowing themselves to be manipulated by those who seek to divide. The future of Puntland and Galmudug depends on the ability of its young people to rise above provocation and work together for the common good.

In conclusion, the communities of Puntland and Galmudug must remain steadfast in their commitment to peace and reject the provocations of those who seek to divide them. By staying united, critically evaluating information, and promoting dialogue, they can overcome these challenges and continue on the path of progress and stability. Let us not allow the ill intentions of a few to undermine the peace and harmony that have been so hard-earned. Together, the people of Puntland and Galmudug can build a future defined by cooperation, mutual respect, and shared prosperity.

To peace, unity, and a brighter future for all

On the same day that Jubaland regional forces summarily defeated forces from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) near Raas Kambooni, Turkey announced that Ethiopia and the FGS signed the Ankara Declaration to ease tensions between the two nations stemming from Addis Ababa’s controversial MOU with Somaliland where it would lease port access in exchange […]

Key Takeaways from the Clashes in Jubaland and the Ankara Declaration

Warsame Digital Media | March 22, 2025

Table of Contents
• Executive Summary
• Key Issues
• Divisive Policies and Federal-State Tensions
• Rampant Corruption, Nepotism, and Cronyism
• Lack of Consultation and Expertise
• Failure to Counter Extremism
• The Political Dilemma
• Option 1: Rally Behind President Mohamud
• Option 2: Undermine and Unseat President Mohamud
• Potential Consequences
• Rallying Behind the President
• Undermining the President
• Pathways Forward for Somalia
• National Dialogue and Reconciliation
• Anti-Corruption Reforms
• Inclusive Governance
• Strengthening Counterterrorism Efforts
• International Support and Accountability
• Conclusion
• Call to Action

1. Executive Summary
Somalia stands at a critical political crossroads, grappling with extremist threats, weak governance, and deep internal divisions. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration is marred by corruption, nepotism, and divisive policies, raising a pressing question: Should Somalis rally behind a failing leader or seek his removal to pave the way for better governance? This booklet explores the key issues, dilemmas, and potential pathways forward for Somalia.
2. Key Issues
Divisive Policies and Federal-State Tensions
• President Mohamud’s confrontational approach toward federal states like Puntland and Jubaland has fueled political instability.
• Lack of cooperation weakens efforts to counter extremism.
Rampant Corruption, Nepotism, and Cronyism
• Corruption and mismanagement have eroded public trust and hindered service delivery.
• Unqualified appointments have worsened governance.
Lack of Consultation and Expertise
• Exclusion of key stakeholders in decision-making has led to poorly designed policies.
Failure to Counter Extremism
• Al-Shabab and ISIS thrive due to weak governance and internal divisions.
3. The Political Dilemma
Option 1: Rally Behind President Mohamud
Pros:
• Avoids short-term instability during existential threats.
• Maintains continuity in counterterrorism efforts.
Cons:
• Risks perpetuating corruption and poor governance.
• Erodes public trust and fuels grievances.
Option 2: Undermine and Unseat President Mohamud
Pros:
• Opportunity for meaningful reforms and inclusive governance.
• Potential to restore public trust and unity.
Cons:
• Risk of political instability and infighting.
• Could disrupt counterterrorism efforts and international support.
4. Potential Consequences
Rallying Behind the President:
• Short-term stability but long-term stagnation.
• Continued erosion of public trust and weakened counterterrorism efforts.
Undermining the President:
• Potential for political instability and disruption of counterterrorism efforts.
• Opportunity for reform and improved governance.
5. Pathways Forward for Somalia
National Dialogue and Reconciliation
• Engage federal states, civil society, and stakeholders to build consensus on power-sharing and counterterrorism.
Anti-Corruption Reforms
• Establish independent oversight mechanisms and prosecute corrupt officials.
Inclusive Governance
• Consult federal states, civil society, and experts in decision-making processes.
Strengthening Counterterrorism Efforts
• Develop a cohesive strategy, build a capable security force, and address root causes of extremism.
International Support and Accountability
• Ensure international aid is tied to progress in governance and anti-corruption reforms.
6. Conclusion
Somalia’s future hinges on addressing its political crisis through dialogue, reforms, and inclusive governance. Whether Somalis rally behind President Mohamud or seek his removal, the focus must remain on building a stable, united, and prosperous nation.
7. Call to Action
Somali leaders, civil society, and the international community must collaborate to overcome this crisis and achieve lasting  peace and stability.

Published by Warsame Digital Media

Executive Summary

Somalia, a nation with a complex political landscape and a history of conflict, faces a critical juncture in its governance. The country is under relentless attack by extremist groups such as Al-Shabab and ISIS, which exploit the political instability and weak governance to further their agendas. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who leads the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), is at the center of a political dilemma. His administration is marred by divisive policies, rampant corruption, nepotism, cronyism, and a lack of consultation and expertise. These issues have exacerbated tensions with federal member states, particularly Puntland and Jubaland, and have weakened the government’s ability to effectively counter extremism and deliver basic services.

This white paper examines the political dilemma facing Somalia: Should Somalis rally behind a failing leader in the face of existential threats, or should they undermine and unseat him to pave the way for more effective governance? The paper explores the root causes of the current political crisis, the implications of supporting or opposing President Mohamud, and potential pathways forward for Somalia.

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Introduction

Somalia’s political landscape is characterized by a fragile federal structure, clan-based politics, and the persistent threat of extremist groups. Since the collapse of the central government in 1991, the country has struggled to rebuild state institutions and establish a stable political order. The election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in 2022 was initially seen as a step toward stability, but his administration has been plagued by internal divisions, poor governance, and a failure to address the country’s most pressing challenges.

The rise of Al-Shabab and ISIS in Somalia has further complicated the political environment. These groups thrive in the absence of strong governance and exploit grievances among marginalized communities. President Mohamud’s divisive policies, particularly his hostile stance toward Puntland and Jubaland, have alienated key stakeholders and undermined efforts to build a unified front against extremism. Additionally, rampant corruption, nepotism, and mismanagement have eroded public trust in the government and hindered its ability to deliver services and security.

This white paper seeks to answer the following questions:

1. What are the root causes of Somalia’s political crisis under President Mohamud?
2. Should Somalis rally behind a failing leader in the face of existential threats, or should they undermine and unseat him?
3. What are the potential consequences of each course of action?
4. What pathways exist for Somalia to overcome its political crisis and achieve stability?

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The Root Causes of Somalia’s Political Crisis

1. Divisive Policies and Federal-State Tensions

President Mohamud’s administration has been characterized by a confrontational approach toward federal member states, particularly Puntland and Jubaland. These states have accused the federal government of centralizing power and undermining their autonomy. The lack of consultation and cooperation between Mogadishu and the federal states has weakened Somalia’s ability to present a united front against extremism and has fueled political instability.

2. Rampant Corruption, Nepotism, and Cronyism

Corruption is a pervasive issue in Somalia, and President Mohamud’s administration has been accused of prioritizing personal and clan interests over national priorities. Nepotism and cronyism have led to the appointment of unqualified individuals to key positions, resulting in mismanagement and maladministration. This has further eroded public trust in the government and hindered its ability to deliver services and security.

3. Lack of Consultation and Expertise

The federal government’s decision-making process has been criticized for lacking transparency and inclusivity. Key stakeholders, including federal member states, civil society, and experts, have been excluded from critical discussions on governance and security. This has resulted in poorly designed policies and a lack of coordination in addressing Somalia’s challenges.

4. Failure to Counter Extremism

Despite international support, the federal government has struggled to effectively counter the threat posed by Al-Shabab and ISIS. The lack of a cohesive strategy, coupled with internal divisions and corruption, has undermined efforts to build a capable security force and address the root causes of extremism.

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The Political Dilemma: Rally Behind or Undermine the Leader?

Option 1: Rally Behind President Mohamud

Supporters of President Mohamud argue that Somalia cannot afford a leadership change in the face of existential threats from Al-Shabab and ISIS. They contend that a change in leadership could lead to further instability and weaken the government’s ability to counter extremism. Rallying behind the president, they argue, would allow the government to focus on addressing the country’s challenges and building a more inclusive political system.

However, this approach risks perpetuating the status quo of poor governance, corruption, and divisive policies. Without meaningful reforms, the government is unlikely to gain the trust and support of the Somali people or effectively counter extremism.

Option 2: Undermine and Unseat President Mohamud

Critics of President Mohamud argue that his administration has failed to address Somalia’s most pressing challenges and has exacerbated political divisions. They contend that unseating the president and replacing him with a more competent and inclusive leader is necessary to restore public trust, strengthen governance, and build a unified front against extremism.

However, this approach carries significant risks. A leadership change could lead to political instability and infighting, particularly in the absence of a clear successor. Additionally, it could distract from efforts to counter extremism and undermine international support for Somalia.

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Potential Consequences of Each Course of Action

Consequences of Rallying Behind President Mohamud

• Short-term stability but long-term stagnation: The government may maintain a semblance of stability in the short term, but without meaningful reforms, the underlying issues of corruption, mismanagement, and divisive policies will persist.
• Continued erosion of public trust: The government’s failure to address corruption and deliver services will further erode public trust and fuel grievances that extremists can exploit.
• Weakened counterterrorism efforts: Internal divisions and poor governance will continue to undermine efforts to counter Al-Shabab and ISIS.

Consequences of Undermining and Unseating President Mohamud

• Potential for political instability: A leadership change could lead to infighting and political instability, particularly in the absence of a clear successor.
• Disruption of counterterrorism efforts: A leadership transition could distract from efforts to counter extremism and undermine international support.
• Opportunity for meaningful reform: A new leader could bring fresh perspectives and a commitment to addressing corruption, improving governance, and building a more inclusive political system.

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Pathways Forward for Somalia

1. National Dialogue and Reconciliation

Somalia needs a comprehensive national dialogue to address the root causes of its political crisis. This dialogue should include federal member states, civil society, and other stakeholders to build consensus on key issues such as power-sharing, resource allocation, and counterterrorism strategy.

2. Anti-Corruption Reforms

The federal government must prioritize anti-corruption reforms to restore public trust and improve governance. This includes establishing independent oversight mechanisms, prosecuting corrupt officials, and promoting transparency in government operations.

3. Inclusive Governance

The federal government must adopt a more inclusive approach to governance, consulting with federal member states, civil society, and experts in decision-making processes. This will help build trust and ensure that policies are well-designed and effectively implemented.

4. Strengthening Counterterrorism Efforts

Somalia needs a cohesive and well-coordinated strategy to counter Al-Shabab and ISIS. This includes building a capable security force, addressing the root causes of extremism, and fostering cooperation between the federal government and federal member states.

5. International Support and Accountability

The international community must continue to support Somalia’s efforts to achieve stability and counter extremism. However, this support should be conditional on progress in governance reforms and anti-corruption efforts.

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Conclusion

Somalia’s political dilemma is a reflection of the broader challenges facing the country as it seeks to rebuild state institutions and counter extremism. While rallying behind President Mohamud may provide short-term stability, it risks perpetuating the status quo of poor governance and divisive policies. On the other hand, undermining and unseating the president carries significant risks but also offers an opportunity for meaningful reform.

Ultimately, Somalia’s path forward lies in addressing the root causes of its political crisis through national dialogue, anti-corruption reforms, inclusive governance, and a cohesive counterterrorism strategy. The Somali people, with the support of the international community, must seize this moment to build a more stable and prosperous future.

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This white paper serves as a call to action for Somali leaders, civil society, and the international community to work together to overcome the current political crisis and achieve lasting peace and stability in Somalia.

In today’s Friday sermon at Masjid Omar Binu AbdiAsis in Garowe, Puntland State, Sheikh Dr. Ahmed, PhD, addressed a pressing concern regarding the youth of the community. He expressed his dismay at what he perceives as an overemphasis on sports, particularly soccer, at the expense of religious devotion. While his concerns about the spiritual well-being of the youth are valid and commendable, his critique of parents and the youth’s engagement in sports overlooks several critical realities on the ground. A more nuanced approach is necessary to address the multifaceted needs of Garowe’s youth, balancing religious devotion with physical, social, and intellectual development.

Firstly, Sheikh Dr. Ahmed’s critique of youth prioritizing sports over religious activities fails to acknowledge the importance of physical development. Sports, including soccer, play a vital role in promoting physical health, discipline, and teamwork. In a world where sedentary lifestyles and health issues are on the rise, encouraging physical activity among youth is not only beneficial but essential. The youth playing soccer in Garowe are not merely indulging in a pastime; they are engaging in activities that foster physical fitness, resilience, and a sense of accomplishment. These qualities are not at odds with religious values but can complement them by promoting a healthy and balanced lifestyle.

Secondly, sports serve as a critical avenue for social integration and skill development. In a society like Garowe, where communal ties are vital, sports provide a platform for youth to interact, build relationships, and develop social skills. Through teamwork and competition, young people learn to communicate, resolve conflicts, and work toward common goals. These skills are indispensable for their integration into society and their future roles as responsible citizens. By participating in sports, youth are not neglecting their religious duties but are instead preparing themselves to contribute meaningfully to their communities. Sports prevent youth from developing bad habits like chewing Qat and getting addicted to other drugs, consequently committing petty crimes.

Moreover, Sheikh Dr. Ahmed’s critique seems to overlook the scarcity of recreational facilities in Garowe. The youth he observed playing soccer are not merely choosing sports over religion; they are making the most of the limited opportunities available to them. Garowe, like many other cities in Somalia, faces a severe shortage of recreational and developmental facilities for both youth and adults. The few amenities that exist are often overcrowded, with youth competing for access. Rather than blaming the youth or their parents, it would be more productive to advocate for the creation of more recreational, educational, and religious facilities that cater to the diverse needs of the community. A holistic approach to youth development requires investment in infrastructure that supports both physical and spiritual growth.

Additionally, the expectation that society should produce only religious scholars is an outdated and impractical notion. While religious education is undoubtedly important, a thriving society requires a diversity of skills and professions. Garowe, and Somalia at large, needs doctors, engineers, teachers, athletes, and entrepreneurs just as much as it needs religious scholars. The youth playing soccer today could become the professionals who drive national development tomorrow. Encouraging a balance between religious devotion and other forms of knowledge and expertise is essential for the progress and stability of the region.

Instead of focusing solely on the perceived neglect of religious duties, mosques and religious leaders like Sheikh Dr. Ahmed could play a more constructive role in addressing the challenges facing Garowe’s youth. One such role could be narrowing sectarian differences that have long contributed to Somalia’s destabilization. Mosques, as centers of community life, have the potential to foster unity, tolerance, and dialogue among different groups. By promoting a message of inclusivity and cooperation, religious leaders can help create a more harmonious and stable society. This would not only benefit the youth but also contribute to the broader goal of national reconciliation and development.

In conclusion, while Sheikh Dr. Ahmed’s concerns about the spiritual well-being of Garowe’s youth are important, his critique of their engagement in sports overlooks the broader context of their needs and challenges. Youth require physical development, social integration, and access to recreational facilities, all of which are currently in short supply in Garowe. Rather than pitting sports against religion, a more balanced approach is needed—one that recognizes the value of both and invests in the holistic development of the youth. Furthermore, mosques and religious leaders have a unique opportunity to play a unifying role in society, addressing not only spiritual needs but also the social and political challenges that hinder progress. By embracing this broader vision, Garowe can nurture a generation of well-rounded individuals who contribute to both their faith and their nation.

For over two decades, Al-Shabab has operated as a parallel government in South-Central Somalia, exerting control over vast territories, imposing its harsh interpretation of Sharia law, and providing basic services to populations neglected by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). Despite efforts by the Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), now replaced by the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), Al-Shabab has proven resilient and adaptive. Recently, the group has escalated its activities, seizing strategic infrastructure locations such as the main roads leading to Afgooye, Balcad, and Jowhar. This development is not only a tactical shift but also a sinister omen that Al-Shabab is preparing for a major operation to destabilize Mogadishu and decapitate the federal government. To counter this growing threat, a comprehensive and multifaceted counterinsurgency strategy is urgently needed.

Al-Shabab’s Parallel Governance and Strategic Control

Al-Shabab’s ability to function as a parallel government stems from its exploitation of the FGS’s weaknesses, including corruption, inefficiency, and limited territorial control. The group has established administrative structures, collected taxes, and provided rudimentary services such as dispute resolution and education in areas under its control. This has allowed Al-Shabab to gain a degree of legitimacy among local populations, particularly in rural areas where the Federal Government’s presence is minimal or nonexistent.

The group’s recent seizure of key infrastructure points, such as roads leading to Afgooye, Balcad, and Jowhar, underscores its strategic ambitions. These roads are critical supply routes for both the FGS and international forces, and their control allows Al-Shabab to disrupt logistics, extort revenue, and project power. By choking off access to these routes, Al-Shabab is not only weakening the government’s ability to respond but also signaling its intent to expand its influence closer to Mogadishu. The group’s attempts to decapitate the Federal Government through targeted assassinations, bombings, and raids further highlight its determination to destabilize the state and seize control of key urban centers.

The Threat to Mogadishu and Beyond

Mogadishu, the seat of the Federal Government, has long been a battleground between Al-Shabab and government forces. While the FGS and its international partners have made significant strides in securing the city, Al-Shabab’s recent activities suggest a renewed push to infiltrate and destabilize the capital. The group’s ability to launch complex attacks, such as the August 2022 siege at the Hayat Hotel, demonstrates its operational sophistication and reach. If Al-Shabab succeeds in gaining a foothold in Mogadishu, it could undermine the government’s authority, disrupt governance, and plunge the city into chaos.

Moreover, Al-Shabab’s ambitions extend beyond Somalia. The group has forged alliances with other extremist organizations in the region, such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and has conducted attacks in neighboring Kenya. A strengthened Al-Shabab in Somalia would pose a significant threat to regional stability, potentially reigniting conflict in the Horn of Africa and providing a safe haven for transnational terrorism.

Counterinsurgency Recommendations

To counter Al-Shabab’s growing threat, a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy must be implemented. This strategy should address the root causes of the insurgency, strengthen governance, and enhance security operations. Below are key recommendations:

1. Strengthen Governance and Service Delivery: Al-Shabab’s ability to function as a parallel government is a direct result of the Federal Government’s failure to provide basic services and governance in many areas. The FGS must prioritize extending its authority and improving service delivery in rural and contested regions. This includes investing in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and economic opportunities to win the support of local populations.
2. Enhance Security Forces’ Capabilities: The Somali National Army and police forces require better training, equipment, and logistical support to effectively combat Al-Shabab. International partners, including the United States, European Union, and African Union, should continue to provide technical and financial assistance while ensuring that support aligns with Somalia’s long-term security needs.
3. Community Engagement and Counter-Radicalization: Counterinsurgency efforts must include community engagement to build trust and gather intelligence. Local leaders, religious figures, and civil society organizations should be involved in efforts to counter Al-Shabab’s propaganda and recruitment. Counter-radicalization programs should focus on providing alternatives to extremism, particularly for vulnerable youth.
4. Targeted Military Operations: While a purely military approach is insufficient, targeted operations against Al-Shabab’s leadership, financial networks, and supply chains are essential. Precision strikes and intelligence-driven raids can disrupt the group’s operations and weaken its organizational structure.
5. Regional Cooperation: Al-Shabab’s threat extends beyond Somalia’s borders, necessitating regional cooperation. The FGS should work closely with neighboring countries, such as Kenya and Ethiopia, to share intelligence, coordinate border security, and prevent the cross-border movement of militants and resources.
6. Address Corruption and Political Fragmentation: Corruption within the FGS undermines public trust and fuels support for Al-Shabab. The government must take concrete steps to combat corruption and promote transparency. Additionally, political fragmentation and clan-based rivalries weaken the state’s ability to present a united front against Al-Shabab. National reconciliation and inclusive governance are critical to building a cohesive response to the insurgency.

Conclusion

Al-Shabab’s continued control of strategic infrastructure and its attempts to decapitate the federal government represent a grave threat to Somalia’s stability and regional security. The group’s resilience and adaptability underscore the need for a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy that addresses the root causes of the conflict, strengthens governance, and enhances security operations. By prioritizing community engagement, regional cooperation, and targeted military actions, the federal government and its international partners can weaken Al-Shabab’s grip on South-Central Somalia and prevent the group from achieving its sinister objectives. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but with sustained effort and collaboration, Somalia can overcome the threat posed by Al-Shabab and move toward a more stable and prosperous future.

The recent seizure of security checkpoints along the Mogadishu-Afgoye Road by the militant group Al-Shabab is a stark reminder of the fragility of Somalia’s security apparatus and the inability of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to maintain control over critical infrastructure. This alarming development not only underscores the growing influence of Al-Shabab but also signals the collapse of government security forces and the failure of the fledgling federal government to address the realities on the ground. The situation raises serious questions about the competence and vision of Somalia’s leaders, who appear to be out of touch with the deteriorating security environment.

The Mogadishu-Afgoye Road is a vital artery connecting the capital, Mogadishu, to the agricultural town of Afgoye and beyond. It is a lifeline for trade, transportation, and communication, making it a strategic asset for both the government and insurgent groups. For years, the Federal Government, with the support of African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces, has struggled to secure this corridor, which has frequently been targeted by Al-Shabab. The recent takeover of security checkpoints by the militant group is a significant blow to the government’s credibility and exposes the weaknesses of its security forces. It demonstrates that Al-Shabab remains a potent force capable of challenging state authority and undermining efforts to stabilize the country.

The fall of these checkpoints is not an isolated incident but rather a symptom of a broader crisis within Somalia’s security sector. Despite years of international support and training, government forces remain poorly equipped, underpaid, and demoralized. Corruption and mismanagement within the security apparatus have further eroded their effectiveness. Al-Shabab, on the other hand, has capitalized on these weaknesses, employing guerrilla tactics, exploiting local grievances, and leveraging its organizational discipline to outmaneuver government forces. The group’s ability to seize and hold strategic positions highlights the lack of coordination and leadership within the government’s security framework.

The failure to secure the Mogadishu-Afgoye Road also reflects the broader incompetence of Somalia’s political leadership. The leaders of the Federal Government, many of whom are entrenched in Mogadishu’s political bubble, seem disconnected from the realities on the ground. Their inability to address the root causes of insecurity, such as clan divisions, poverty, and lack of governance, has allowed Al-Shabab to thrive. Instead of focusing on building inclusive institutions and fostering national unity, the government has been plagued by infighting, corruption, and a lack of strategic direction. This has created a vacuum that Al-Shabab has been all too willing to fill.

Moreover, the government’s reliance on external actors, such as AMISOM and international donors, has fostered a culture of dependency rather than self-reliance. While international support has been crucial in countering Al-Shabab, it cannot replace the need for a capable and accountable Somali security force. The recent setbacks on the Mogadishu-Afgoye Road underscore the limitations of this approach and highlight the urgent need for the government to take ownership of its security challenges.

The implications of Al-Shabab’s growing control over key infrastructure are dire. The group’s ability to disrupt trade and movement along the Mogadishu-Afgoye Road will have a devastating impact on the local economy, exacerbating poverty and displacement. It also sends a chilling message to the Somali people and the international community that the government is incapable of protecting its citizens. If left unaddressed, this could further erode public confidence in the government and strengthen support for Al-Shabab, which presents itself as a viable alternative to the perceived incompetence and corruption of the state.

In conclusion, the takeover of security checkpoints by Al-Shabab on the Mogadishu-Afgoye Road is a clear indication of the collapse of government security forces and the failure of Somalia’s political leadership. The Federal Government’s inability to address the root causes of insecurity, coupled with its reliance on external actors, has created a security vacuum that Al-Shabab has exploited. Unless the government takes decisive action to reform its security sector, address corruption, and reconnect with the realities on the ground, the situation is likely to worsen. The people of Somalia deserve a government that can protect them and provide a path toward stability and prosperity. The current leadership must rise to the occasion or risk being remembered as the architects of Somalia’s continued descent into chaos.

The Puntland State of Somalia has long been a region of resilience and determination, facing multifaceted security challenges with courage and resourcefulness. A recent letter at bottom of this article addressed to Dahir Mire Jibril, reflecting on a paper discussing Puntland’s progress and challenges, provides a compelling starting point for a deeper analysis of the region’s current security landscape. While the paper in question offers an optimistic perspective on Puntland’s achievements, the letter raises critical concerns that underscore the complexity of the situation. This article delves into the key themes highlighted in the correspondence, examining the achievements, challenges, and potential pathways for Puntland to navigate its ongoing struggles.

Puntland’s Achievements: A Testament to Resilience

The Puntland State Defence Forces (PSDF) have been at the forefront of the region’s efforts to combat terrorism and maintain stability. Their bravery and resilience in confronting ISIS militants, particularly in the frontline engagements near Bosaso City, have been nothing short of heroic. The public’s unwavering support for these efforts has played a pivotal role in sustaining the morale of the forces. Additionally, the Somali diaspora has been instrumental in providing financial, logistical, and moral support, demonstrating the power of collective action in the face of adversity.

These achievements are a testament to Puntland’s ability to mobilize resources and rally its people against existential threats. However, as the letter rightly points out, these successes are only part of the story. The region continues to grapple with significant challenges that threaten to undermine its progress.

Persistent Threats: ISIS Remnants and Guerrilla Warfare

One of the most pressing concerns highlighted in the letter is the persistence of ISIS remnants near Bosaso City. Despite the PSDF’s efforts, these pockets of resistance have proven difficult to eradicate entirely. The situation is further complicated by the emergence of a prolonged guerrilla conflict, a scenario that Puntland has not historically encountered. This shift in tactics by ISIS poses a new and daunting challenge for the region’s security forces.

The lack of adequate training among Puntland fighters has exacerbated the situation. The letter notes that significant losses have been incurred due to improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and sniper fire in the Calmiskaad mountains. These casualties underscore the urgent need for enhanced training programs, particularly in counterinsurgency and asymmetric warfare tactics. Without such measures, the PSDF risks being outmaneuvered by a more agile and adaptable enemy.

The Al-Shabaab Factor: An Unresolved Threat

While ISIS remains a significant concern, the threat posed by Al-Shabaab in the Cal-Madow mountain ranges cannot be overlooked. Unlike ISIS, Al-Shabaab has a long history in the region and has demonstrated its ability to adapt and regroup despite sustained military pressure. The letter laments the absence of strategic operations to address this threat, highlighting a critical gap in Puntland’s security strategy.

Al-Shabaab’s presence in the Cal-Madow mountains not only undermines Puntland’s stability but also poses a broader threat to Somalia’s security. The group’s ability to operate in remote and rugged terrain makes it a formidable adversary, requiring a coordinated and well-resourced response. The lack of progress in this area suggests a need for greater regional and international collaboration to develop and execute effective counterterrorism strategies.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

The letter’s reflection on Puntland’s challenges serves as a sobering reminder that the region’s journey toward stability is far from over. While the progress made so far is commendable, it is clear that Puntland must address several critical issues to consolidate its gains and prevent further setbacks.

1. Enhanced Training and Capacity Building: The PSDF’s ability to combat guerrilla warfare and asymmetric threats hinges on improved training and capacity building. International partners and regional allies can play a crucial role in providing the necessary expertise and resources to enhance the skills of Puntland’s fighters.
2. Strategic Planning and Coordination: Addressing the dual threats of ISIS and Al-Shabaab requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach. Puntland must develop strategic plans that prioritize intelligence gathering, community engagement, and targeted operations to dismantle terrorist networks.
3. Community Engagement and Public Support: The public’s support has been a cornerstone of Puntland’s resilience. Sustaining this support will require transparent communication, efforts to address grievances, and initiatives to foster social cohesion.
4. Regional and International Collaboration: Puntland cannot tackle these challenges alone. Strengthening partnerships with the Federal Government of Somalia, neighboring states, and international allies will be essential to pooling resources and expertise.

Conclusion: A Call for Sustained Effort

The letter’s thoughtful analysis of Puntland’s security challenges underscores the complexity of the region’s situation. While the PSDF’s achievements are a source of pride, the persistence of ISIS remnants, the looming threat of Al-Shabaab, and the need for enhanced training and strategic planning highlight the work that remains to be done.

Puntland’s journey toward stability is a marathon, not a sprint. It will require sustained effort, adaptability, and collaboration at all levels. By addressing these challenges head-on and building on its existing strengths, Puntland can continue to make progress toward a more secure and prosperous future. The reflections shared in the letter serve as both a reminder of the stakes and a call to action for all stakeholders invested in Puntland’s success.

Subject: Reflections on Your Paper and Puntland’s Challenges.

Dear Dahir,

Warm greetings to you and your colleagues here.

I recently read your paper with great interest. While your perspective is optimistic, it is undeniably well-articulated and thought-provoking. I wholeheartedly agree that the Puntland State gallant Defence Forces have demonstrated exceptional bravery and resilience in their frontline engagements against ISIS. The public’s unwavering support for the war efforts is indeed commendable, and the role of the diaspora in bolstering these efforts has been nothing short of phenomenal.

That said, I believe there are critical challenges that warrant further attention. For instance, pockets of ISIS remnants persist near Bosaso City, and it appears that Puntland State is on the brink of a prolonged guerrilla conflict—a scenario unprecedented and unanticipated in its relatively short history. Regrettably, the lack of adequate training among Puntland fighters has led to significant losses, particularly from IEDs and sniper fire in the Calmiskaad mountains.

Moreover, the threat posed by Al-Shabaab in the Cal-Madow mountain ranges remains unresolved. Strategic operations to address this threat are yet to be planned and executed, adding another layer of complexity to the region’s security landscape.

In summary, while the progress made so far is noteworthy, Puntland State still has a long and arduous journey ahead before we can confidently celebrate any potential success.

Thank you for sharing your insights, and I look forward to further discussions on this important topic.

Warm regards,
Ismail

Download here Paper by Dahir Mire Jibril:

Executive Summary

The relationship between Puntland State and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has been marked by tension and mistrust, largely due to disagreements over the federal constitution, resource allocation, and political representation. Puntland, as the oldest federal member state established after the Somali Civil War, has consistently advocated for a review of the provisional federal constitution to address its concerns and ensure a fair and inclusive political framework. This white paper outlines the necessary steps for Puntland to engage in meaningful negotiations with the FGS, focusing on key demands such as constitutional reform, recognition of Puntland’s historical and political significance, and its role in critical issues like Somaliland negotiations and SSC-Khaatumo affairs. As a confidence-building measure, the FGS must abandon anti-Puntland policies, including the freezing of projects and budget support, to create an environment conducive to dialogue and collaboration.

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Introduction

Puntland State, established in 1998, has played a pivotal role in Somalia’s post-civil war recovery. As a semi-autonomous region, Puntland has contributed to state-building, security, and economic development, serving as a model for other federal member states. However, the relationship between Puntland and the FGS has been strained due to unresolved constitutional issues, perceived marginalization, and unilateral decisions by the FGS that undermine Puntland’s autonomy.

This white paper proposes a roadmap for negotiations between Puntland and the FGS, emphasizing the need for confidence-building measures, constitutional reform, and recognition of Puntland’s role in Somalia’s political future.

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Key Demands of Puntland State

1. Review of the Federal Constitution

Puntland has consistently called for a comprehensive review of Somalia’s provisional federal constitution to address its concerns and ensure a fair distribution of power and resources. The current constitution does not adequately reflect the aspirations of Puntland and other federal member states. Puntland advocates for either an asymmetrical federal system or a confederal system, which would grant greater autonomy to member states while maintaining a unified Somalia.

• Asymmetrical Federalism: This model would allow Puntland and other states to exercise varying degrees of autonomy based on their unique historical, political, and economic contexts.
• Confederal System: This model would establish a looser union between Somalia’s member states, granting them significant autonomy while cooperating on issues of common interest.

2. Recognition of Puntland’s Historical and Political Significance

Puntland, as the oldest federal member state, has been a cornerstone of Somalia’s post-civil war recovery. Its contributions to peacebuilding, security, and governance must be formally acknowledged by the FGS. This recognition should include:

• A formal acknowledgment of Puntland’s role in shaping Somalia’s federal system.
• Inclusion of Puntland’s leadership in national decision-making processes.

3. Puntland’s Role in Somaliland Negotiations

Puntland has a direct stake in any future negotiations between the FGS and Somaliland. The SSC-Khaatumo region, which is claimed by both Puntland and Somaliland, is a critical issue that must be addressed through inclusive dialogue. Puntland demands:

• A seat at the table during negotiations with Somaliland.
• Recognition of Puntland’s interests in the SSC-Khaatumo region.

4. Puntland as a Stakeholder in SSC-Khaatumo Affairs

The SSC-Khaatumo region is a contentious issue that requires a collaborative approach. Puntland insists on being recognized as a key stakeholder in resolving disputes related to the region. This includes:

• Ensuring that the voices of SSC-Khaatumo communities are heard and respected.
• Collaborative efforts to address security, governance, and resource-sharing in the region.

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Confidence-Building Measures

To create an environment conducive to negotiations, the FGS must take immediate steps to rebuild trust with Puntland. These measures include:

1. Abandoning Anti-Puntland Policies

The FGS must cease all actions that undermine Puntland’s autonomy and development. This includes:

• Halting efforts to marginalize Puntland in national decision-making.
• Ending interference in Puntland’s internal affairs.

2. Unfreezing Projects and Budget Support

The freezing of projects and budget support for Puntland by the donor community, often at the behest of the FGS, has hindered the region’s development. The FGS must:

• Advocate for the resumption of donor-funded projects in Puntland.
• Ensure equitable distribution of resources and development assistance to all federal member states.

3. Inclusive Dialogue

The FGS must commit to an inclusive and transparent dialogue process that addresses Puntland’s concerns. This includes:

• Establishing a joint technical committee to review the federal constitution.
• Ensuring that Puntland’s representatives are included in all national consultations.

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Conclusion

The path to a stable and unified Somalia requires addressing the legitimate concerns of Puntland State. By abandoning anti-Puntland policies, unfreezing development projects, and committing to constitutional reform, the FGS can build the trust necessary for meaningful negotiations. Puntland’s demands for greater autonomy, recognition of its historical significance, and a role in critical national issues are not only reasonable but essential for Somalia’s long-term stability.

This white paper serves as a call to action for the FGS to prioritize dialogue and collaboration with Puntland, paving the way for a more inclusive and equitable Somalia.

Somalia, a nation plagued by decades of conflict, political instability, and humanitarian crises, faces an existential threat from the militant group Al-Shabab. The possibility of an Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia, akin to the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, is no longer a distant hypothetical but a grim reality that could materialize if the current trajectory persists. The Somali federal government, riddled with corruption and infighting, has proven incapable of defeating the group. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), despite its prolonged presence, has failed to stabilize the country. Meanwhile, Somali leaders remain in a state of self-denial, making grandiose claims about defeating Al-Shabab that starkly contradict the realities on the ground. The status quo is unsustainable, and without dramatic changes, Somalia could witness a catastrophic shift in power.
The Current State of Affairs
Al-Shabab, an Islamist militant group with ties to Al-Qaeda, controls significant portions of rural south-central Somalia and continues to exert influence over key regions. Despite being pushed out of major urban centres like Mogadishu by African Union forces over a decade ago, the group has adapted and remains a formidable force. It generates millions of dollars annually through taxation, extortion, and illicit trade, funding its operations, and maintaining a parallel administration in areas under its control. Al-Shabab’s resilience is further bolstered by its ability to exploit grievances against the corrupt and ineffective Somali government, which has failed to deliver basic services or security to its citizens.
The Somali National Army (SNA), theoretically the primary force tasked with combating Al-Shabab, is underfunded, poorly equipped, and riddled with defectors and infiltrators The federal government’s reliance on clan militias and regional forces has further fragmented the fight against the group, as these forces often prioritize local interests over national unity. The African Union mission, while initially successful in pushing back Al-Shabab, has struggled to maintain momentum due to funding shortfalls, troop withdrawals, and a lack of clear strategy. The planned drawdown of ATMIS forces has only heightened fears of a security vacuum that Al-Shabab could exploit.
Al-Shabab’s Evolving Tactics: A Shift Toward Pragmatism?
Recent reports suggest that Al-Shabab is adapting its tactics to appeal to broader segments of Somali society, particularly those who have historically resisted its extremist ideology. In a notable shift, the group has reportedly abandoned the practice of burning the Somali national flag—a symbolic gesture that had alienated many Somalis who retain a sense of national pride. This change reflects a calculated effort to rebrand itself as a more palatable alternative to the corrupt and ineffective federal government.
Al-Shabab appears to be taking cues from the experiences of other Islamist groups, such as those in Syria, where factions like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have sought to consolidate power by presenting themselves as pragmatic administrators rather than ideologically rigid extremists. By softening its image and focusing on governance, Al-Shabab aims to win over communities that have grown disillusioned with the federal government’s failures. This strategy could prove devastatingly effective in a country where the state has consistently failed to provide security, justice, or basic services.
The Path to an Al-Shabab Victory
The potential for an Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia hinges on several factors:
• Government Weakness and Corruption: The Somali federal government is widely perceived as corrupt and ineffective. Its inability to provide basic services, coupled with rampant corruption, has eroded public trust and created fertile ground for Al-Shabab’s expansion. The group positions itself as a provider of justice and stability in areas it controls, contrasting sharply with the government’s failures.
• Fragmented Security Forces: The SNA and regional forces lack cohesion and coordination. Al-Shabab has repeatedly exploited divisions within these forces, using guerrilla tactics to ambush convoys, overrun military bases, and seize territory. Without a unified and well-equipped national army, the government stands little chance of defeating the group.
• ATMIS Drawdown: The planned withdrawal of African Union forces has raised concerns about the Somali government’s ability to fill the security gap. Al-Shabab has already intensified its attacks in areas where ATMIS forces have withdrawn, signalling its readiness to capitalize on the transition.
• Public Disillusionment: Many Somalis are disillusioned with the federal government and view it as a puppet of foreign powers. Al-Shabab’s nationalist rhetoric, combined with its ability to provide rudimentary governance, has won it a degree of support among disaffected populations.
• Regional and International Apathy: The international community’s attention has shifted away from Somalia, with donor fatigue and competing global crises reducing funding and support. This lack of sustained engagement has emboldened Al-Shabab and weakened the government’s capacity to fight back.
The Implications of an Al-Shabab Victory
An Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia would have devastating consequences for the region and beyond. The group’s governance model, based on a strict interpretation of Sharia law, would result in widespread human rights abuses, including public executions, amputations, and the suppression of women’s rights. Education and healthcare systems would be dismantled or repurposed to serve the group’s ideological agenda.
Regionally, an Al-Shabab-controlled Somalia would become a safe haven for terrorist groups, destabilizing neighboring countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti The group’s links to Al-Qaeda and other transnational networks would enable it to export violence and extremism across borders, posing a significant threat to global security.
Internationally, the fall of south-central Somalia to Al-Shabab would represent a significant blow to counterterrorism efforts. It would embolden other extremist groups and undermine decades of investment in state-building and stabilization. The humanitarian consequences would also be dire, with millions of Somalis facing displacement, famine, and persecution.
Breaking the Cycle: What Needs to Be Done
To prevent an Al-Shabab victory, Somalia and its international partners must take urgent and decisive action:
• Address Corruption and Governance: The Somali government must prioritize transparency, accountability, and service delivery to regain public trust. International donors should tie aid to measurable improvements in governance and anti-corruption efforts.
• Reform and Unify Security Forces: The SNA and regional forces must be reformed, unified, and adequately resourced. This includes addressing defections, improving training, and ensuring equitable pay and equipment distribution.
• Sustain International Support: The international community must recommit to Somalia, providing sustained financial and logistical support to both the government and ATMIS. A premature withdrawal of African Union forces would be catastrophic.
• Engage Local Communities: Countering Al-Shabab requires winning the hearts and minds of local populations. This involves addressing grievances, providing alternative livelihoods, and ensuring that communities are protected from reprisals.
• Strengthen Regional Cooperation: Somalia’s neighbors must work together to counter Al-Shabab’s cross-border activities. This includes intelligence-sharing, coordinated military operations, and efforts to disrupt the group’s financing networks.
Conclusion
The potential for an Al-Shabab victory in south-central Somalia is a stark reminder of the fragility of the current political and security landscape. The group’s evolving tactics, including its efforts to present a more pragmatic and inclusive image, underscore the urgency of the situation. Without urgent and comprehensive action, the country risks falling into the hands of a group whose ideology and governance model are antithetical to peace, stability, and human rights. The Somali government, regional actors, and the international community must act now to prevent a Taliban-style takeover that would have catastrophic consequences for Somalia and the world. The status quo is unsustainable, and the time for dramatic change is running out.

Subject: In Defense of Somali Federal Parliamentarian Abdullahi Hashi Abib

Dear FMS, Members of the International Community, Parliaments, and Human Rights Organizations,

We, at Warsame Digital Media (WDM), write to you with grave concern regarding the ongoing efforts to undermine and silence one of Somalia’s most dedicated public servants, Parliamentarian Abdullahi Hashi Abib @MPDrAbib (abib.parliament.gov.so). His unwavering commitment to combating corruption, promoting transparency, and defending human rights has made him a beacon of hope for the Somali people. However, his principled stance has also made him a target of those who seek to perpetuate maladministration and impunity.

Abdullahi Hashi Abib has consistently exposed corruption, malpractices, and the misappropriation of public resources in Mogadishu. His courage in holding the powerful accountable has earned him the respect of countless Somalis who yearn for good governance and the rule of law. Yet, instead of being celebrated for his efforts, he is now facing an unjust and unconstitutional campaign to strip him of his parliamentary immunity and expel him from the Federal Parliament.

The Speaker of the Parliament, Sheikh Aden Madoobe, in collaboration with Federal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, is spearheading this effort to remove Abib from his position. This move is not only a blatant violation of parliamentary procedures but also a direct attack on the principles of democracy, accountability, and freedom of speech. It sets a dangerous precedent that threatens the integrity of Somalia’s fledgling democratic institutions and undermines the fight against corruption.

We urge the FMS, international community, parliaments, and human rights organizations to:

1. Condemn the Unconstitutional Actions Against Abib: The attempt to strip Abdullahi Hashi Abib of his parliamentary immunity is a clear violation of Somalia’s constitutional framework and international democratic standards. We call on you to publicly denounce this move and demand that due process be followed.
2. Protect Freedom of Speech and Accountability: Abib’s work as an anti-corruption advocate and human rights defender is essential for Somalia’s progress. Silencing him would send a chilling message to other reformers and activists. We urge you to stand in solidarity with Abib and all those who fight for transparency and justice in Somalia.
3. Investigate the Allegations of Political Retaliation: The actions against Abib appear to be politically motivated and aimed at stifling dissent. We call for an independent investigation into these allegations to ensure that Somalia’s democratic institutions are not hijacked for personal or political gain.
4. Support Somalia’s Democratic Institutions: The international community has invested heavily in rebuilding Somalia’s governance structures. Allowing the persecution of a parliamentarian for holding the government accountable would undermine these efforts. We urge you to reaffirm your commitment to strengthening Somalia’s democracy and rule of law.

Abdullahi Hashi Abib’s work is not just for the benefit of Somalia but for the entire international community that supports peace, stability, and good governance in the region. His removal from Parliament would be a significant setback for the fight against corruption and the protection of human rights in Somalia.

We call on you to act swiftly and decisively to ensure that Abdullahi Hashi Abib is allowed to continue his vital work without fear of retribution. The Somali people deserve leaders who are committed to justice and accountability, and Abib is one of those rare leaders.

Sincerely,
Warsame Digital Media (WDM)
Advocates for Transparency, Accountability, and Human Rights in Somalia

Niccolò Machiavelli, the Renaissance political philosopher, once observed that when a city becomes too corrupt, it can not be reformed through incremental measures. Instead, it requires a radical overhaul of its socioeconomic structures to break free from the cycle of decay. This observation, made centuries ago, resonates eerily with the current state of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. Mogadishu, a city once known as the “Pearl of the Indian Ocean,” has been ravaged by decades of conflict, weak governance, and systemic corruption. Today, it stands as a stark example of a city too corrupt to reform through conventional means. The only viable solution lies in a profound transformation of its political, economic, and social foundations—a transformation that must include the return of looted properties, compensation for those harmed, and a comprehensive national reconciliation process to address past grievances and injustices.

The Depth of Corruption in Mogadishu

Corruption in Mogadishu is not merely a problem; it is the system itself. From the highest echelons of government to the lowest levels of bureaucracy, graft, embezzlement, and bribery have become normalized. Public funds meant for infrastructure, healthcare, and education are routinely siphoned off by officials. International aid, which is critical for the city’s survival, often ends up in the hands of warlords and corrupt elites rather than reaching the people who need it most. This pervasive corruption has eroded public trust in institutions and perpetuated a cycle of poverty and instability.

The judiciary, which should serve as a check on power, is itself compromised. Laws are selectively enforced, and justice is often available only to those who can afford to pay for it. This lack of accountability has created an environment where impunity thrives, and corruption becomes self-reinforcing. The result is a city where the rule of law is weak, and the social contract between the state and its citizens is all but broken.

The Failure of Incremental Reforms

Over the years, there have been numerous attempts to reform Mogadishu’s corrupt systems. International organizations, foreign governments, and local activists have pushed for anti-corruption measures, transparency initiatives, and governance reforms. While these efforts have had some limited success, they have largely failed to address the root causes of corruption. This is because corruption in Mogadishu is not just a matter of individual wrongdoing; it is embedded in the very fabric of the city’s socioeconomic structures.

Incremental reforms, such as strengthening anti-corruption laws or increasing oversight, are insufficient in a context where the entire system is designed to facilitate corruption. For example, even if a corrupt official is removed, the underlying structures that enabled their corruption remain intact, and another individual will simply take their place. This is why Machiavelli’s insight is so relevant: when corruption becomes systemic, piecemeal reforms are doomed to fail.

The Case for Radical Overhaul

If Mogadishu is to break free from the grip of corruption, it needs a radical overhaul of its socioeconomic structures. This means rethinking the way power is distributed, resources are allocated, and institutions are governed. Such a transformation would require bold and visionary leadership, both from within Somalia and from the international community.

1. Political Restructuring: The current political system in Mogadishu is deeply flawed, with power concentrated in the hands of a few elites who use their positions for personal gain. A radical overhaul would involve decentralizing power and creating more inclusive governance structures. This could include empowering local communities, establishing independent oversight bodies, and ensuring that political leaders are held accountable for their actions.
2. Economic Transformation: Corruption in Mogadishu is fueled by a lack of economic opportunities and widespread poverty. A radical overhaul would involve creating a more equitable economic system that provides opportunities for all citizens. This could include investing in education and job creation, supporting small businesses, and ensuring that natural resources are managed transparently and for the benefit of the entire population.
3. Social Renewal: Corruption has eroded social trust and cohesion in Mogadishu. A radical overhaul would involve rebuilding the social fabric of the city by promoting civic engagement, fostering a culture of accountability, and addressing the grievances of marginalized groups. This could include initiatives to promote dialogue and reconciliation, as well as efforts to strengthen civil society.

Addressing Past Injustices: Property Restitution and Compensation

One of the most pressing issues facing Mogadishu is the widespread looting of public and private properties during the civil war. Homes, businesses, and lands were seized by warlords, militias, and corrupt officials, leaving countless residents displaced and destitute. Any effort to reform Mogadishu must include a comprehensive plan to return these properties to their rightful owners and compensate those who have been harmed.

This process will not be easy. It will require a transparent and impartial mechanism to verify claims, resolve disputes, and ensure that justice is served. However, it is a necessary step to restore trust in the government and provide a sense of closure to those who have suffered. The return of looted properties and compensation for victims will also help to stimulate economic recovery by allowing individuals and businesses to rebuild their lives and livelihoods.

National Reconciliation: Healing the Wounds of the Past

In addition to addressing material losses, Mogadishu must also confront the deep-seated grievances and injustices that have fueled decades of conflict. National reconciliation is essential to healing the wounds of the past and building a more inclusive and peaceful society. This process should involve:

• Truth-Telling: Creating platforms for victims and perpetrators to share their stories and acknowledge the wrongs that have been committed.
• Justice and Accountability: Ensuring that those responsible for war crimes and human rights abuses are held accountable, while also providing opportunities for restorative justice.
• Inclusive Dialogue: Engaging all segments of society, including women, youth, and marginalized communities, in the reconciliation process to ensure that all voices are heard.

National reconciliation will not happen overnight, but it is a critical component of any effort to rebuild Mogadishu. Without addressing the injustices of the past, the city will remain trapped in a cycle of resentment and conflict.

The Role of the International Community

The international community has a critical role to play in supporting Mogadishu’s transformation. This includes providing financial and technical assistance, but it also means holding Somali leaders accountable for their actions. Too often, foreign aid has been used to prop up corrupt regimes, perpetuating the very problems it is meant to solve. The international community must adopt a more principled approach, tying aid to concrete reforms and supporting local initiatives that promote transparency and accountability.

Conclusion

Mogadishu stands at a crossroads. It can continue down the path of corruption and decay, or it can embrace the radical overhaul needed to build a more just and prosperous future. As Machiavelli understood, there are times when incremental reforms are not enough. For Mogadishu, that time has come. The city’s survival depends on its ability to confront corruption head-on, return looted properties, compensate those who have been harmed, and embark on a process of national reconciliation to address past grievances. This will not be easy, but it is the only way to break free from the cycle of corruption and create a brighter future for the people of Mogadishu.

This video showcases the peaceful assembly of the residents of Siinka Dheer, a community now facing the imminent threat of displacement by local authorities. For three decades, these individuals have called this place their home, and they are now at risk of losing everything.

Their voices deserve attention, and their rights must be protected. Stand with them in their pursuit of justice and in their fight to preserve their homes and community.

Executive Summary

Somalia is currently at a critical juncture, facing an array of challenges that threaten its unity and the sovereignty of the Somali state. Allegations of maladministration, corruption, cronyism, and nepotism within the Somali Federal Government (SFG) undermine effective governance and exacerbate existing divisions among Somalia’s political factions and Federal Member States (FMS). These tensions are compounded by the re-emergence of extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab and ISIS, which exploit the fragile political environment. This white paper analyzes the factors contributing to Somalia’s instability, the implications of potential national disintegration, and offers recommendations for fostering national unity and restoring faith in governance.

Introduction

Since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, Somalia has grappled with political fragmentation, civil conflict, and a lack of effective governance. The establishment of the SFG in 2012 offered hope for a new era of stability; however, the ongoing issues of corruption, internal divisions, and the absence of national reconciliation have hindered progress. Recent developments, including Somaliland’s unilateral declaration of independence and Puntland’s withdrawal from cooperation with Mogadishu, signal an alarming trend toward fragmentation of the Somali state.

Current Challenges Facing Somalia

1. Corruption and Maladministration
The SFG has been accused of rampant corruption and nepotism, diminishing public trust in government institutions. Misappropriation of resources intended for development and basic services has exacerbated poverty and hindered reconstruction efforts.

2. Political Fragmentation
Internal divisions among Somalia’s Federal Member States have intensified, with significant rifts between the SFG and vital regions such as Puntland and Somaliland. This discord has impeded collaborative governance and undermined efforts to create a unified national identity.

3. Security Threats
The resurgence of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab and ISIS remains a critical threat. Political instability fosters an environment where these groups can thrive, targeting vulnerable populations and government forces. This cycle of violence further alienates FMS and weakens national security.

4. Historical Grievances and Lack of Reconciliation
The absence of a comprehensive reconciliation process after years of civil war has left deep-seated grievances between clans and regions unaddressed. This lingering resentment makes it challenging to foster a cohesive national identity.

5. Fear of Disintegration
The unilateral secession of Somaliland and Puntland’s cessation of collaboration with the SFG has fueled fears of national disintegration. These developments raise questions about the viability of the Somali state as a unified entity and threaten to redefine territorial boundaries.

Implications of National Disintegration

The potential disintegration of Somalia carries serious implications:

1. Humanitarian Crises: Escalating conflict could exacerbate displacement, poverty, and humanitarian needs, leading to greater instability in the Horn of Africa.
 
2. Regional Security Threats: A fragmented Somalia could create a vacuum for extremist groups, influencing regional stability and security dynamics.
 
3. International Relations: Diplomatic efforts to engage Somalia in the global community could be hindered, limiting access to aid, investment, and cooperation on myriad issues.

Recommendations

1. Establish a Transparent Governance Framework
The SFG should prioritize combating corruption through transparent governance mechanisms, accountability measures, and promoting the rule of law. Building institutions that prioritize merit-based appointments will strengthen public trust and legitimacy.

2. Facilitate Dialogue Among Federal Member States
A facilitated dialogue process among FMS, inclusive of local stakeholders, is vital to addressing grievances and fostering collaboration with the SFG. Initiatives that encourage negotiation and mutual respect can help restore confidence in a unified Somali state.

3. Promote National Reconciliation Efforts
Comprehensive reconciliation initiatives involving traditional leaders, civil society, and women, must be prioritized to address historical grievances. Truth and reconciliation commissions can offer platforms for healing and rebuilding social cohesion.

4. Strengthen Security Sector Reform
Reforming the security sector to promote capability and accountability is essential for national stability. International support for training and equipping Somali forces can enhance their effectiveness against extremist threats.

5. Engage the International Community
Somalia must actively engage with local and international partners to secure support for political and economic initiatives. Building alliances can help bolster the SFG’s legitimacy and facilitate necessary resources for development and security.

Conclusion

The challenges facing Somalia are multifaceted, requiring a comprehensive and unified approach to governance, security, and national reconciliation. Failing to address these issues could lead to further fragmentation and loss of sovereignty. By fostering dialogue, promoting transparency, and investing in national reconciliation, Somalia can work toward unity, stability, and a more hopeful future for its citizens.

Call to Action

It is imperative that Somali leaders, citizens, and international partners recognize the urgency of these challenges and work collaboratively to preserve the integrity of the Somali state. Inaction risks not only the national fabric of Somalia but also stability in the broader Horn of Africa region.