Why Centralization, Term Extensions, and Constitutional Shortcuts Remain a Clear and Present Danger
WAPMEN EDITORIAL
Somalia’s problem is no longer confusion. It is amnesia.
The country keeps relearning the same lesson—at enormous cost—while its leaders insist on repeating the same behavior under new names, new slogans, and new excuses. Administrations change, but the instinct to centralize power, bypass consensus, and manipulate constitutional processes remains stubbornly intact.
Today, Somalia is led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre. The faces are different from 2019. The danger is not.
Federalism Was a Peace Settlement — Not a Courtesy to the Center
Somalia’s federal system was not adopted because it was fashionable. It was adopted because unchecked central authority destroyed the Somali state.
Federalism was the compromise that made reunification possible after civil war. It was the minimum condition for coexistence among mistrustful communities emerging from collapse. It was, in effect, a peace settlement disguised as a governance model.
Any federal leadership—past or present—that treats federalism as temporary, cosmetic, or negotiable by executive fiat is tampering with the foundations of the republic.
The Constitutional Review Trap: Same Playbook, New Actors
A constitution derives legitimacy from process, not presidential announcements.
Yet Somalia continues to flirt with the same dangerous pattern:
Closed-door constitutional engineering
Minimal public participation
Marginal consultation with Federal Member States
Political timing designed to shape electoral outcomes
This is not reform. It is constitutional ambush.
Whether attempted under previous administrations or revived under the current one, the result is identical: mistrust, resistance, and institutional paralysis.
A constitution rushed without consensus does not unify the country—it fractures it.
Term Extension Is Not Stability — It Is Deferred Crisis
Somalia’s leaders often justify mandate extensions in the name of stability. This is a fiction.
Term extension does not buy time; it burns legitimacy. It replaces consent with coercion and turns elections from solutions into triggers. The 2021 crisis proved this beyond debate.
Any attempt—explicit or disguised—to normalize term extensions under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration would not be a technical adjustment. It would be a deliberate political gamble against Somalia’s fragile equilibrium.
Why Confederalism Refuses to Go Away
Confederalism did not enter Somali political discourse because Puntland or other Federal Member States woke up one day craving fragmentation.
It emerged because:
Federalism was violated, not respected
Power-sharing was undermined, not honored
Federal Member States were treated as administrative dependencies
When the center abandons partnership, the periphery explores protection.
Confederalism is not rebellion. It is a warning signal—a constitutional distress flare fired by communities that feel excluded from national decision-making.
Ignore it, and the union weakens further.
Puntland’s Position: Constitutional Self-Defense, Not Defiance
The stance of Puntland State of Somalia has consistently been mischaracterized as obstructionist.
In reality, Puntland has been defending:
The Provisional Federal Constitution
The principle of shared sovereignty
The idea that Somalia is a collective ownership state, not a Villa Somalia possession
Federalism survives only when limits are respected. When the center overreaches, resistance is not insubordination—it is constitutional self-defense.
The Choice Before the Current Leadership
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre face a clear choice:
Consensus or coercion
Dialogue or decrees
Legitimacy or longevity
Somalia does not need faster constitutions, stronger executives, or clever political shortcuts. It needs slower politics grounded in consent, inclusion, and restraint.
The cheapest option is always to do the right thing early. Somalia’s tragedy is that its leaders keep choosing the most expensive alternative—doing the wrong thing until the country pushes back.
Final Word
Federalism was meant to heal Somalia, not hollow it out.
Constitutions are meant to unite, not ambush.
Elections are meant to confer legitimacy, not postpone accountability.
Those who ignore these truths should not pretend surprise when the system resists.
Somalia has learned this lesson before.
The scandal is that it must keep learning it again.
WAPMEN — Warsame Policy & Media Network
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