By Ismail H.Warsame
Warsame Digital Media(WDM)
Somalia stands at a precipice, haunted by a single, unavoidable question: where do we go from here?
In the north, Puntland State—the federation’s last functioning polity—is concluding a grueling campaign against ISIS in the Cal-Miskaad ranges. The black flags have been torn down, but the war drums echo from the Calmadoow Mountains, where Al-Shabab’s shadow government still levies taxes, enforces its rule, and harvests the disillusioned and gemstones alike. This is the next battle, looming and unwon, pending the whims of distant patrons.
Those patrons, the United Arab Emirates and the United States, are now uncertain allies in a world fractured by new wars and economic tremors. Their commitment wavers with the potential next Donald J. Trump’s tweet, a figure who could erase yesterday’s pledges with such unpredictability. Should American aid vanish, Puntland’s soldiers may find themselves standing against the storm in little more than sandals and sheer will.
At home, Puntland’ democratic momentum has frozen. President Said Abdullahi Deni, rather than securing the legacy of his governance reforms, is captivated by the siren call of Villa Somalia in 2026. The ballot boxes in Garowe lie silent; the project of democracy is on indefinite hold.
Meanwhile, Villa Somalia is reaping the whirlwind of its own political arson. The “smart politics” of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his Damul-Jadiid cadre have proven to be a masterclass in miscalculation, exposing a dangerous cocktail of arrogance and ineptitude. The regime’s “stabilization mission” is now a bitter punchline in Mogadishu’s tea shops.
Its deliberate campaign to destabilize the federal member states has backfired spectacularly. The artificial “North East State,” concocted in Laascaanood, is unraveling like a cheap mat from Bakaaraha market. Its administrators issue decrees to extort local financial agencies to stay relevant. The parallel fantasy of a “New Jubaland” is another lit fuse—a scheme destined to fail, but only after further poisoning the well between Mogadishu and Kismayo.
As for Hirshabeelle, Galmudug, and Southwest, these are not states but subsidiaries, their leaders governing on borrowed legitimacy and donor stipends. The federal model has been hollowed out, mutated from a structure of governance into a network of patronage.
And through the cracks, Al-Shabab marches. They no longer infiltrate the capital; they operate with impunity. The city’s “most secure zones” like Godka Jilicoow, guarded by NISA and African Union forces, have become stages for public humiliation. Each blast is a stark reminder: Mogadishu is under a siege that its own government seems powerless to lift.
Inside the Halane compound, the diplomatic bubble where optimism is imported and reheated, the mood has curdled. The envoys who once championed the Damul-Jadiid “success story” now scramble to explain how their project became an obituary for functional federalism. Their talking points are exhausted; their credibility, bankrupt.
So, where do we go from here?
The answer will not be found in Mogadishu’s sterile conferences or the anodyne communiqués of donors. Somalia’s fate will be decided by its local realities, not imported slogans. Puntland and Jubaland now shoulder the crumbling pillars of the federation, even as the center collapses. Unless a surge of reason dispels the pyromania in Villa Somalia, the Union itself may not survive the next blaze.
This is the state of our union: fractured, fatigued, its future flickering faintly against the gathering dark. The ghosts of division are dancing, and the music is reaching a crescendo.
Welcome to the Somali paradox: a nation at war with its own reflection.
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WDM Commentary:
This is not a prediction; it is a diagnosis. Somalia’s crisis is not an accident of fate, but the direct yield of calculated irresponsibility. Until a new ethos of leadership rises from the ashes of Mogadishu’s hubris, the next state of the union will read not as a warning, but as an autopsy.
© Warsame Digital Media (WDM)
Qardho,Puntland
“Talking Truth to Power— One Editorial at a Time.”
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 